Army (5-7) vs Navy (9-2)
When: Saturday, December 14th 2019
Where: Lincoln Financial Field,
Philadelphia, PA
Time: 3:00 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: Navy -10/45
This year’s edition of the Army vs. Navy game finds two teams that finished the season with opposite preseason expectations. Army threatened to be the best Group of 5 team last season, but fell way below many predictions with a 5-7 record and will miss a Bowl game for the first time in four years. The Black Knights have suffered six of their seven losses by single digits, including a 24-21 double-overtime setback at No. 17 Michigan after going 19-5 in one-score games the previous three seasons. Navy is going bowling – Liberty Bowl on New Year’s Eve – and own the top rushing attack in the country at 360.8, while Army is second (311.7). Navy looks to finish the regular season with 10 wins for the first time since 2015 when they meet Army for the 120th time Saturday at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. The 21st-ranked Midshipmen’s only losses this season came to No. 14 Notre Dame and No. 15 Memphis. Navy leads the all-time series 60-52-7, but have lost the last three meetings including 17-10 last year. The under has cashed in each of the last 10 meetings and 14 of 16 and this year’s total is set at 40.5. The Midshipmen are seeking their 16th Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy and 11th in 17 years after beating Air Force 34-25 on Oct. 5.
The big question for Army as they get ready for their final game of the season, is whether or not quarterback Kelvin Hopkins Jr. is ready to go after he left the last game at Hawaii on Nov. 30 with a leg injury. Hopkins, who is part of the senior class trying to go 4-0 against Navy, has thrown for 570 yards and run for 706 along with seven touchdowns and is probable for Saturday. Fellow senior Connor Slomka (637 yards, eight TDs) and junior Sandon McCoy (555, 10) are the top running backs behind Hopkins, while junior Camden Harrison leads the receivers with 23 catches and 415 yards. The Army defense is ranked 29th in FBS overall (337.8), but has trouble stopping the run (144.1).
Navy quarterback Malcolm Perry not only rushed for 1,500 yards – including at least 100 in eight straight games – but passed for 1,027 yards as well. He might not have his top wideout on Saturday, as Mychal Cooper (15 receptions for 355 yards) missed the last game with an undisclosed injury and is questionable. Sophomore fullback Jamale Carothers adds 637 yards on the ground and has run for another 13 scores for a Midshipmen squad that averages a FBS 10th-best 39.3 points a game. The defense is very good at stopping the run (109.9), but has trouble in the secondary, allowing 232.6 per contest through the air.
On paper, Navy should win this game easily, but this is not an ordinary rivalry game. This is Army/Navy and most of the games are low scoring and relatively close. I’m taking the points here as this Army senior class would love to finish undefeated against Navy.
Pick: Army +11
Betting Trends:
Black Knights are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Black Knights are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games in December.
Black Knights are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Black Knights are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
Black Knights are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as an underdog.
Black Knights are 12-27-1 ATS in their last 40 games following a bye week.
Black Knights are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Black Knights are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
Black Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Black Knights are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Midshipmen are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Covers Hot Trend
Midshipmen are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Covers Hot Trend
Midshipmen are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
Midshipmen are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
Midshipmen are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Midshipmen are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Midshipmen are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Midshipmen are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Midshipmen are 23-10-1 ATS in their last 34 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Midshipmen are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
Midshipmen are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
Midshipmen are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as a favorite.
Midshipmen are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week.
Midshipmen are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. INDEP.
Under is 14-3 in Black Knights last 17 games in December.
Over is 4-1 in Black Knights last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 16-5 in Black Knights last 21 neutral site games as an underdog.
Under is 22-7 in Black Knights last 29 games following a bye week.
Under is 20-7 in Black Knights last 27 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 17-6 in Black Knights last 23 neutral site games.
Over is 5-2-1 in Black Knights last 8 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 27-11 in Black Knights last 38 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 12-5-1 in Black Knights last 18 games on grass.
Under is 42-20 in Black Knights last 62 games as an underdog.
Over is 4-0 in Midshipmen last 4 games following a straight up win.
Over is 5-0 in Midshipmen last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 5-1 in Midshipmen last 6 games following a ATS win.
Under is 13-3 in Midshipmen last 16 neutral site games as a favorite.
Over is 4-1 in Midshipmen last 5 games overall.
Over is 4-1 in Midshipmen last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Midshipmen last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 10-3 in Midshipmen last 13 neutral site games.
Under is 16-5 in Midshipmen last 21 games in December.
Over is 6-2 in Midshipmen last 8 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 6-2 in Midshipmen last 8 vs. INDEP.
Under is 19-7-1 in Midshipmen last 27 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Under is 9-4 in Midshipmen last 13 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Home team is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Under is 14-2 in the last 16 meetings.
Underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Black Knights are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Navy.
