Millions of people around the world are passing time engaging with sports betting, which for many offers both a thrill of turning knowledge into a financial rewards, and the nervosity related to the potential risks of wagering money. Being successful is not just a matter of luck, it also requires applying strategies derived from statistics and research.
The importance of bankroll management
Bankroll management is the most basic and important concept to understand before applying any betting strategy when you place bets on the Betway app, which is an easy-to-navigate sports betting app. Research has found that a disciplined approach to bankroll management is a significant factor in long-term betting success. The bottom line of bankroll management is to never bet more than you can afford to lose. Additionally, you should always manage your bets in a way that minimizes the risk of losing the entire bankroll.
One common method is the Kelly Criterion, which is a formula that can be used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets. The formula takes two things into account: The probability of winning, and the odds being offered. This makes it possible for bettors to maximize their potential profits and minimize risk. Research has also found that when bettors apply this formula, they are more likely to see positive returns over time.
Strategy 1: Value betting
One of the most statistically sound betting strategies is value betting. Bottomline of this strategy is to identify odds offered by bookmakers which are higher than the actual probability of the event. In other words, you look for bets where the bookmaker has underestimated the likelihood of an outcome. To exemplify this, think of a tennis player: Sport experts have predicted a 60% chance of the tennis player winning a match, but the odds suggest only a 50% chance. This would then be a value bet.
By consistently betting on these opportunities, you will over time yield profits. Research has shown that value betting can significantly outperform random betting. To be able to identify value bets, it is necessary to be well-versed in sports and to understand the math behind probability and odds.
Strategy 2: Following sharp money
Professional bettors with a track record of success are referred to as sharp bettors or ‘sharps’. They bet large amounts and have a deep and thorough understanding of the sports they wager on. What often happens is that bookmakers adjust their odds in response to sharp money, which can make it a valuable indicator for you. One strategy is to follow where the sharp money is going. This can be revealed through line movement, which refers to when the odds change due to large bets by sharps.
A study has demonstrated that betting markets often reflect the wisdom of the crowd. So, to identify and follow sharp money, you can leverage the expertise of professionals without needing the expert level of sports knowledge.
Strategy 3: Hedging bets
The baseline for hedging is to reduce risk by betting on both sides of an event. The idea of hedging bets is to minimize potential losses regardless of the outcome, and to guarantee a profit. Hedging becomes especially useful when you have placed a bet, and the odds have later turned in your favor. To exemplify it, imagine you have bet $100 on a team at +200 odds: Later on, the odds shift to -150 for the same team, which means you can place a bet on the opposite outcome, which means you lock in a profit.
A 2019 study found that while hedging can reduce the potential losses, it can consequently also reduce the overall returns. Using the strategy selectively is therefore key in scenarios where the initial bet had a higher likelihood of success.
Strategy 4: Specializing in niche markets
Most people engaging in sports betting places bets on major sports, especially football, basketball, and soccer. But to find the best opportunities, it can be worth looking towards niche markets. This could for example be smaller leagues, less popular sports, or even specific betting markets. The reason for this being a potentially profitable strategy is because bookmakers often spend less time and fewer resources on setting odds for niche markets, which makes them more prone to errors.
A 2018 study found that niche markets often have higher expected returns because the odds-setting bookmakers are less efficient. So, if you choose to focus on a specific area, you can become an expert through research and improve your chances.
Strategy 5: Using statistical models
Statistical models use historical data and advanced algorithms to predict the outcomes of sporting events. Elo Ratings is one model, which is applied to various sports. It rates teams or players based on past performance and takes into account the strength of the opponents. You can also use machine learning algorithms to analyze vast amounts of data and predict outcomes.
A study has found that machine learning models could outperform traditional betting methods, especially when it comes to sports with huge amounts of data, such as soccer, baseball, and basketball.
