Florida (6-0) at LSU (5-0)
When: Saturday, October 12th 2019
Where: Tiger Stadium,
Baton Rouge, LA
Time: 8:00 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: LSU -14/54.5
What makes College Football so great, week-in and week-out? The fact that one loss can doom your season and that big matchups, like the one Saturday night in Baton Rouge, are like playoff games. The Florida Gators and LSU Tigers play in arguably the toughest conference in football and will go into this week’s game with undefeated records and their sights set on a College Football Playoff berth. Yes, they both still have a lot of work to do after this game, but a win would keep the train rolling and put them in great position. A loss, would not be devastating, but hard to come back from. After all, the Gators still have to play Georgia and the Tigers tangle with Alabama later on. There’s a lot of excitement in Baton Rouge this year because they finally have an offense that can score points at will behind Heisman Trophy candidate Joe Burrow. The Tigers not only lead the FBS in scoring (54.6), but their 273 points are the most in SEC history through five games. If there’s one team that can slow down this LSU attack, it would be this Florida defense, which ranks fifth in points allowed at just under 10 a game. The Gators won 27-19 in last year’s matchup in Gainesville and won 16-10 the last time they came to LSU in 2016 as 14-point underdogs – exactly what this week’s spread is from most major PayPerHead services like Premier. The home team has covered six of the last eight meetings and the total is an even 5-5 in the last 10 battles.
The defense is doing a terrific job of keeping Florida undefeated and lead the FBS with 19 takeaways – 12 interceptions and held Auburn quarterback Bo Nix to 145 yards passing in last week’s 24-13 win over the Tigers. The offense has been getting better each week behind QB Kyle Trask, who has not thrown an interception in either of the last two contests and is completing 72.2 percent of his passes on the season. Florida could use more from its running game, which ranks 89th in the country. Lamical Perine had his best game of the season thus far when he rumbled for 130 yards on just 14 carries last week against Auburn. The Gators are on the road again next week to take on South Carolina.
LSU’s defense is not as dominant as in years past, but is still a pretty solid unit that ranks 19th overall in yards allowed (289.6) and ninth agains the run (82.8). Burrow’s two-interception game against Florid a year ago is a thing of the past and enters the week second in FBS in passing yards (1,864) and tied for second in passing touchdowns (22) while leading in completion percentage (78.4). Burrow gets help from a pretty talented group of wide receivers including Justin Jefferson (30 catches, 547 yards, seven TDs), Ja’Marr Chase (23, 451, six) and Terrace Marshall Jr. (20, 304, six). With those gaudy numbers, its only natural that the running game ranks just 75th in FBS at 155.2 yards a game. LSU will play at Mississippi State next Saturday.
It’s not easy to stop this LSU offense right now, but if there’s a team that can do it, it’s the Florida Gators. They have already picked-off 12 passes on the season and will cause Burrow some problems in this one. The Gators won outright here three years ago as 14-point dogs and I think their offense can generate enough points to keep this one close.
Pick: Florida +13.5 (More Week 7 Free Picks)
Betting Trends:
Gators are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win.
Gators are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
Gators are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Gators are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
Tigers are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Tigers are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Tigers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 conference games.
Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Tigers are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Tigers are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games in October.
Tigers are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
OU TRENDS
Over is 4-0-1 in Gators last 5 road games.
Over is 4-0-1 in Gators last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 5-1 in Gators last 6 games overall.
Over is 5-1-1 in Gators last 7 games following a ATS win.
Under is 4-1 in Gators last 5 games following a straight up win.
Over is 4-1 in Gators last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Gators last 5 games on grass.
Over is 3-1-1 in Gators last 5 games in October.
Over is 7-3 in Gators last 10 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 3-0-1 in Tigers last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Over is 4-0-1 in Tigers last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 3-0-1 in Tigers last 4 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 7-1 in Tigers last 8 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 6-1-1 in Tigers last 8 games overall.
Over is 6-1 in Tigers last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1-1 in Tigers last 6 games following a straight up win.
Over is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Over is 4-1-1 in Tigers last 6 games on grass.
Over is 7-3 in Tigers last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
Home team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Gators are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Louisiana State.
