Arizona (52-52) at Miami (39-62)
When: Saturday, July 27th, 2019
Where: Marlins Park,
Miami, Florida
Time: 6:10 ET | TV: FS Arizona,
FS Florida
Opening Odds: Arizona -130/8
If the Arizona Diamondbacks are to make the postseason, they’ll need to figure out how to beat the worst teams in Baseball. The D’backs fell to 4-8 in their last 12 visits to Miami after a gut-wrenching 3-2 setback on Friday to drop them back to .500 and 3.5 games behind Washington for the second wild card spot in the National League. Arizona got six strong innings from ace Zack Greinke but closer Greg Holland loaded the bases with nobody out in the ninth inning up 2-1 and Miami won the game with a couple of sacrifice flies. The Diamondbacks are coming off a series win over Baltimore earlier this week that was harder than it should have been and will have a brutal stretch coming up after this weekend that includes the Yankees, Phillies, Nationals, and Dodgers. Miami has won three straight after allowing 29 runs in losing the previous three to the Dodgers and White Sox, surrendering just three total runs during the winning streak. Marlins reliever Jarlin Garcia extended his career-best 18 consecutive scoreless innings streak with a perfect seventh inning on Friday.
Pitchers: Diamondbacks – Alex Young (3-0, 2.38 ERA) | Marlins – Jordan Yamamoto (4-1, 2.61)
Alex Young is still undefeated in his first four major league starts despite a rough outing Sunday against Milwaukee in which he gave up four runs on three hits and three walks while striking out five over four innings. He won his first three starts by allowing a total of two runs and six hits across 16.1 innings. Young was recalled from Triple-A Reno last month where he posted a 6.09 ERA in eight starts and 12 relief appearances.
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Jordan Yamamoto also had a brilliant start to his career but suffered his first setback on Sunday to the MLB-best L.A. Dodgers, allowing five runs on four hits – two homers – and two walks over four innings. The Marlins won five of his first six starts and he allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of those six. Yamamoto is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three home starts.
This is a battle of two young pitchers who are off to great starts despite their last outings and I don’t see an edge there. The edge I see is that Arizona is clearly the better team despite their recent struggles and should rebound for a much-needed victory Saturday.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free MLB Picks page for Saturday. He is 98-68 +1893 units on the season after an 12-7 run!
Pick: Diamondbacks -118
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BETTING TRENDS:
Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last 5 games following a loss.
Diamondbacks are 16-5 in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
Diamondbacks are 5-2 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Diamondbacks are 40-16 in their last 56 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Diamondbacks are 5-2 in their last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Diamondbacks are 3-9 in their last 12 during game 2 of a series.
Marlins are 6-1 in their last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Marlins are 3-7 in their last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Marlins are 6-15 in their last 21 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Marlins are 2-5 in their last 7 games following a win.
Marlins are 1-8 in their last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Marlins are 5-2 in Yamamoto’s last 7 starts.
Marlins are 5-2 in Yamamoto’s last 7 starts on grass.
Under is 2-0-2 in Diamondbacks last 4 overall.
Under is 2-0-2 in Diamondbacks last 4 on grass.
Under is 2-0-2 in Diamondbacks last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Over is 6-1-1 in Diamondbacks last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Under is 4-1-1 in Diamondbacks last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 3-1-1 in Diamondbacks last 5 games following a loss.
Over is 6-2 in Diamondbacks last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
Over is 8-3-1 in Diamondbacks last 12 during game 2 of a series.
Over is 5-0 in Marlins last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 6-0 in Marlins last 6 games following a win.
Under is 4-1-1 in Marlins last 6 during game 2 of a series.
Over is 3-1-1 in Marlins last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 8-3-2 in Marlins last 13 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 7-3 in Marlins last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 7-3-1 in Marlins last 11 Saturday games.
Over is 4-1 in Yamamoto’s last 5 starts on grass.
Over is 4-1 in Yamamoto’s last 5 starts overall.
Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Miami.
Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings.
Diamondbacks are 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.
