Arizona (52-31) at LA Dodgers (55-29)
When: Tuesday, July 4th 2017
Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Time: 9:10 ET | TV: FSN Arizona, SportsNet LA
Opening Odds: Los Angeles -274/7
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The Los Angeles Dodgers will try and distance themselves even further from what was recently a three-team race in the National League West, when they open a three-game set with the Arizona Diamondbacks on Tuesday night. Just over a week ago, the Dodgers, D’Backs, and Colorado Rockies had the top three records in the league and were all within a game of each other. L.A. begins the week with a 2.5 game lead over Arizona with Colorado starting to fade away. The Dodgers have the best record in the NL at 55-29, but did not have a player voted an All-Star starter when the rosters were announced on Sunday. Clayton Kershaw (tonight’s starter), Closer Kenley Jansen, SS Corey Seager and rookie 1B Cody Bellinger will represent the Dodgers in Miami at the All-Star Game next Tuesday as reserves, although Kershaw could get the start for the NL. The Diamondbacks will send four players to the All-Star Game (1B Paul Goldschmidt, Starter Zack Greinke, Starter Robbie Ray and 3B Jake Lamb) as well and began July with a pair of wins after closing June with three consecutive losses. Arizona, which took four of seven from the Dodgers in April, are 7-1 in their last eight road contests. Arizona SS Chris Owings is 7-for-19 with three home runs, four doubles and six RBIs in his last five games.
Pitchers: Diamondbacks – Patrick Corbin (6-7, 4.76 ERA) | Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw (12-2, 2.32)
Patrick Corbin has a three-game quality start streak going and has allowed just two or fewer earned runs in each of those outings, but has just one win to show for it. He held the St. Louis Cardinals to two runs and five hits in six innings on Thursday but received a no-decision in a game Arizona went on to lose 10-4. Corbin was a little shaky at Dodger Stadium on April 15th, when he allowed five runs – three earned – on nine hits and three walks over six innings in a loss.
Kershaw has not allowed an earned run in either of his last two starts while surrendering a total of seven hits in 13 innings and striking out 20. The Cy Young-candidate surrendered four home runs in a win over the New York Mets on June 16th but kept the ball in the park in the last two outings and has recorded the win in each of his last five starts. Kershaw struck out eight in 8.1 innings while allowing one run and four hits in a win over Arizona on April 14th.
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Look, the Dodgers are probably going to win this game, but I’m not laying -275 on anyone, so let’s look at another option. Even the runline isn’t an attractive play at -140, which leaves us with the total. Arizona does not play well away from home and Kershaw shouldn’t allow more than one run to him. I’m going to take the under with the thinking that Corbin continues to pitch well and does just enough to keep L.A. from exploding offensively.
Pick: Under 7 +105
W/L TRENDS
| Arizona |
- Diamondbacks are 7-1 in their last 8 road games.
- Diamondbacks are 6-1 in their last 7 Tuesday games.
- Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. National League West.
- Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last 5 games following an off day.
- Diamondbacks are 18-6 in their last 24 overall.
- Diamondbacks are 18-6 in their last 24 games on grass.
- Diamondbacks are 7-3 in their last 10 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Diamondbacks are 15-7 in their last 22 during game 1 of a series.
- Diamondbacks are 36-17 in their last 53 games following a win.
- Diamondbacks are 17-42 in their last 59 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Diamondbacks are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Diamondbacks are 6-1 in Corbin’s last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Diamondbacks are 4-10 in Corbin’s last 14 starts vs. National League West.
- Diamondbacks are 5-16 in Corbin’s last 21 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Diamondbacks are 1-4 in Corbin’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Diamondbacks are 2-8 in Corbin’s last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Diamondbacks are 1-10 in Corbin’s last 11 road starts.
- Diamondbacks are 0-4 in Corbin’s last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Diamondbacks are 0-6 in Corbin’s last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
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| LA Dodgers |
- Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss.
- Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games following an off day.
- Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Dodgers are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. National League West.
- Dodgers are 10-2 in their last 12 during game 1 of a series.
- Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Dodgers are 14-3 in their last 17 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Dodgers are 46-15 in their last 61 home games.
- Dodgers are 24-8 in their last 32 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Dodgers are 25-9 in their last 34 Tuesday games.
- Dodgers are 40-15 in their last 55 overall.
- Dodgers are 40-15 in their last 55 games on grass.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in Kershaw’s last 5 Tuesday starts.
- Dodgers are 43-9 in Kershaw’s last 52 starts.
- Dodgers are 42-9 in Kershaw’s last 51 home starts.
- Dodgers are 42-9 in Kershaw’s last 51 starts on grass.
- Dodgers are 42-10 in Kershaw’s last 52 starts vs. National League West.
- Dodgers are 42-10 in Kershaw’s last 52 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Dodgers are 43-13 in Kershaw’s last 56 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Dodgers are 39-13 in Kershaw’s last 52 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Dodgers are 47-16 in Kershaw’s last 63 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Dodgers are 60-21 in Kershaw’s last 81 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Dodgers are 46-17 in Kershaw’s last 63 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
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OU TRENDS
| Arizona |
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 10-1 in Diamondbacks last 11 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 5-1 in Diamondbacks last 6 games following a win.
- Over is 20-5-1 in Diamondbacks last 26 games following an off day.
- Over is 22-7-2 in Diamondbacks last 31 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Diamondbacks last 5 overall.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Diamondbacks last 5 on grass.
- Under is 13-5-1 in Diamondbacks last 19 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-2-1 in Diamondbacks last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Diamondbacks last 8 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 7-3-1 in Diamondbacks last 11 Tuesday games.
- Under is 33-16-1 in Diamondbacks last 50 road games.
- Over is 5-1 in Corbin’s last 6 starts overall.
- Over is 5-1 in Corbin’s last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1 in Corbin’s last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 8-2 in Corbin’s last 10 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 16-5 in Corbin’s last 21 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 9-3 in Corbin’s last 12 starts vs. National League West.
- Over is 8-3 in Corbin’s last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 26-10-1 in Corbin’s last 37 starts on grass.
- Over is 5-2 in Corbin’s last 7 Tuesday starts.
- Over is 13-6-1 in Corbin’s last 20 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Over is 33-16-3 in Corbin’s last 52 road starts.
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| LA Dodgers |
- Under is 7-1 in Dodgers last 8 games following a loss.
- Under is 6-1 in Dodgers last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 5-1 in Dodgers last 6 games following an off day.
- Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 home games.
- Over is 6-2 in Dodgers last 8 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Dodgers last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 8-3 in Dodgers last 11 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 12-5-1 in Dodgers last 18 Tuesday games.
- Under is 38-17 in Dodgers last 55 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Over is 15-7-1 in Dodgers last 23 overall.
- Over is 15-7-1 in Dodgers last 23 on grass.
- Over is 4-1 in Kershaw’s last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Under is 4-1 in Kershaw’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-2 in Kershaw’s last 7 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 36-15-2 in Kershaw’s last 53 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 23-11 in Kershaw’s last 34 starts with 4 days of rest.
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HEAD TO HEAD
- Over is 4-0 in Kershaw’s last 4 home starts vs. Diamondbacks.
- Dodgers are 5-1 in Kershaw’s last 6 starts vs. Diamondbacks.
- Dodgers are 8-3 in Kershaw’s last 11 home starts vs. Diamondbacks.
- Diamondbacks are 21-44 in the last 65 meetings.
- Diamondbacks are 7-24 in the last 31 meetings in Los Angeles.
- Diamondbacks are 0-4 in Corbins last 4 starts vs. Dodgers.
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