Chicago Cubs (76-63) at Pittsburgh (67-73)
When: Thursday, September 7th 2017
Where: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
Time: 7:05 ET | TV: MLB Network
Opening Odds: Chicago -139/8.5
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The Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates have split their 18 meetings this season and Thursday’s contest at PNC Park will determine the winner of their season series. The Pirates had a chance to take the ‘best of 19’ on Wednesday, but couldn’t generate any offense as the Cubs came away with a 1-0 win. Chicago is struggling offensively also, scoring just five runs in their last four games, but managed to break a three-game losing streak with the win on Wednesday. The Cubs still maintain a four-game lead over St. Louis and 4.5 over the Brewers in the NL Central. They still play seven more games against the Cardinals and six more with Milwaukee. The series thus far has been entertaining despite the lack of runs as the Pirates scored the tying and go-ahead runs in the bottom of the eighth inning Tuesday and Chicago plated the only run of the night in the top of the ninth Wednesday. Chicago RH Wade Davis converted his 29th save in as many chances Wednesday, extending his franchise record. The Pirates, who have won four of five, need a miracle finish over their last 22 games to make the playoffs. They’ll begin the night 7.5 games out of the Wild Card.
Pitchers: Cubs – Jon Lester (9-7, 4.46 ERA) | Pirates – Jameson Taillon (7-5, 4.50)
Jon Lester made his first start since August 17th last Saturday and was not very effective despite earning the victory over Atlanta. Lester allowed four runs and eight hits over five innings in the 14-12 slug-fest. In his previous start before going on the disabled list, Lester allowed nine runs and seven hits to the Reds in just 1.2 innings. He is 4-5 with a 3.39 ERA in 11 starts against the Pirates, including 0-2 with a 6.08 ERA in three meetings this season.
James Taillon will look for another strong outing after holding the Cincinnati Reds scoreless on three hits through six innings on Saturday. Unfortunately, he received his fourth straight no-decision. Taillon is 2-2 with a 3.68 ERA in four starts against Chicago and has not fared well against Anthony Rizzo (6-for-11 with a double and two homers) and Javier Baez (5-for-7 with two doubles and a homer).
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Look for the Cubs to break-out against the struggling Taillon here tonight. Forget about the offensive slump, you can’t keep this team down for too long and tonight is a great spot for them. On the other side, Lester has been even worse and the Pirates have tagged him this year. Look for early offense and take the over. It might even be over before the Chiefs/Patriots game starts.
Pick: Over 8 -110
BETTING TRENDS:
- Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Cubs are 5-1 in their last 6 games following a win.
- Cubs are 15-4 in their last 19 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Cubs are 11-3 in their last 14 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 19-7 in their last 26 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 5-2 in their last 7 during game 4 of a series.
- Cubs are 10-4 in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Cubs are 27-11 in their last 39 Thursday games.
- Cubs are 7-3 in their last 10 overall.
- Cubs are 7-3 in their last 10 games on grass.
- Cubs are 7-3 in their last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Cubs are 9-4 in their last 13 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 23-11 in their last 34 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Cubs are 2-5 in their last 7 road games.
- Cubs are 2-5 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Cubs are 12-2 in Lester’s last 14 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Cubs are 5-1 in Lester’s last 6 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 5-1 in Lester’s last 6 road starts.
- Cubs are 5-1 in Lester’s last 6 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 23-5 in Lester’s last 28 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Cubs are 20-8 in Lester’s last 28 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 5-2 in Lester’s last 7 Thursday starts.
- Cubs are 7-3 in Lester’s last 10 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 37-18 in Lester’s last 55 starts.
- Cubs are 37-18 in Lester’s last 55 starts on grass.
- Pirates are 7-1 in their last 8 during game 4 of a series.
- Pirates are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Pirates are 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Pirates are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
- Pirates are 4-1 in their last 5 games on grass.
- Pirates are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
- Pirates are 19-7 in their last 26 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Pirates are 5-2 in their last 7 Thursday games.
- Pirates are 11-5 in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Pirates are 4-10 in their last 14 games following a loss.
- Pirates are 5-13 in their last 18 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Pirates are 1-7 in their last 8 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Pirates are 1-7 in their last 8 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Pirates are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Pirates are 4-0 in Taillon’s last 4 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Pirates are 4-0 in Taillon’s last 4 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Pirates are 6-1 in Taillon’s last 7 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Pirates are 14-4 in Taillon’s last 18 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Pirates are 5-2 in Taillon’s last 7 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 7-2-1 in Cubs last 10 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 7-2-1 in Cubs last 10 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 23-8-1 in Cubs last 32 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Cubs last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Cubs last 7 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 5-0 in Lester’s last 5 road starts.
- Over is 6-1 in Lester’s last 7 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Lester’s last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 4-1 in Lester’s last 5 starts overall.
- Over is 6-2 in Lester’s last 8 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 5-2 in Lester’s last 7 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Over is 7-3-1 in Lester’s last 11 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 7-3 in Lester’s last 10 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 22-10-3 in Lester’s last 35 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Pirates last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Pirates last 5 overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Pirates last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Pirates last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 4-1 in Pirates last 5 on grass.
- Under is 4-1 in Pirates last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1 in Pirates last 5 home games.
- Under is 4-1 in Pirates last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 4-1 in Pirates last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Pirates last 6 during game 4 of a series.
- Under is 17-5 in Pirates last 22 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2 in Pirates last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 17-6 in Pirates last 23 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 19-7-1 in Pirates last 27 Thursday games.
- Under is 5-0 in Taillon’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 8-1-1 in Taillon’s last 10 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Taillon’s last 7 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 8-2-1 in Taillon’s last 11 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Taillon’s last 5 home starts.
- Under is 10-3-2 in Taillon’s last 15 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Under is 6-2 in Taillon’s last 8 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 5-2 in Taillon’s last 7 starts on grass.
- Over is 5-2-2 in Taillon’s last 9 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Pittsburgh.
- Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
- Cubs are 15-7 in the last 23 meetings in Pittsburgh.
- Cubs are 0-4 in Lester’s last 4 starts vs. Pirates.
