Chicago Cubs (69-50) at Pittsburgh (61-60)
When: Thursday, August 16th 2018
Where: PNC Park, Pittsburgh
Time: 7:05 ET | TV: NBCS Chicago,
AT&T SportsNet Pittsburgh
Opening Odds: Chicago -118/8.5
The Pittsburgh Pirates made a big push prior to the All-Star Break to get into the postseason discussion, but that momentum has faded and now they enter a really tough stretch beginning Thursday with the opener of a four-game series with the Chicago Cubs. The Pirates have fallen nine games behind the Cubs in the NL Central and 5.5 back of the second wild-card spot after being swept in two games at Minnesota to begin the week. Pittsburgh will now begin a stretch of 16 straight games against teams with winning records, including four with the Cubs and six with NL East-leading Atlanta. The Cubs have alternated wins and losses in their past seven contests, but that has been good enough to maintain a three-game lead over second-place Milwaukee in the NL Central. After being shut out by the Brewers on Tuesday, the Cubs responded with 13 hits, including homers by Anthony Rizzo and Albert Almora, in an 8-4 win Wednesday. The Cubs acquired the speedy Terrance Gore from Kansas City on Wednesday. Gore is 0-for-11 in his major-league career but has 21 stolen bases in 49 big-league games and will be eligible for the postseason roster. The Cubs hold a 6-5 edge in the season series, going 3-2 at PNC Park thus far.
Pitchers: Cubs – Jon Lester (12-5, 3.89 ERA) | Pirates – Ivan Nova (7-6, 4.42)
Lester has been downright horrible lately, going winless in five starts since the All-Star break with a 10.32 ERA. Lester was hit hard last time out by Washington for nine runs (eight earned) over 3.2 innings Saturday, and he served up three home runs. He is 7-6 with a 3.59 ERA in 16 career starts against the Pirates, including 2-1 with a 4.70 ERA in four meetings this season.
The Pirates have been giving Ivan Nova great run support, winning five of his last six starts, but the righty has a 4.22 ERA over that stretch. Nova won at San Francisco last time out, limiting the Giants to two runs and three hits over six innings. He is 4-1 with a 3.63 ERA in six starts against the Cubs and has allowed four runs in 12.2 innings in 2018.
I really don’t like either pitcher in this one, and will gladly take the over. Eight of Lester’s last nine starts have gone over the total, while the over is 3-0-1 in Nova’s last four.
Pick: OVER 8.5 -120
BETTING TRENDS:
- Cubs are 41-15 in their last 57 Thursday games.
- Cubs are 7-3 in their last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Cubs are 35-16 in their last 51 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Cubs are 2-5 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.
- Cubs are 6-0 in Lester’s last 6 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance.
- Cubs are 4-0 in Lester’s last 4 Thursday starts.
- Cubs are 6-1 in Lester’s last 7 road starts.
- Cubs are 23-5 in Lester’s last 28 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Cubs are 8-2 in Lester’s last 10 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Cubs are 8-3 in Lester’s last 11 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Cubs are 52-24 in Lester’s last 76 starts on grass.
- Cubs are 52-25 in Lester’s last 77 starts.
- Cubs are 35-17 in Lester’s last 52 starts vs. National League Central.
- Pirates are 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Pirates are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Pirates are 10-3 in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Pirates are 10-3 in their last 13 vs. National League Central.
- Pirates are 14-5 in their last 19 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Pirates are 7-3 in their last 10 during game 1 of a series.
- Pirates are 2-5 in their last 7 Thursday games.
- Pirates are 5-0 in Nova’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Pirates are 5-1 in Nova’s last 6 starts.
- Pirates are 5-1 in Nova’s last 6 starts on grass.
- Pirates are 4-1 in Nova’s last 5 starts vs. National League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 7-1 in Cubs last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 6-1 in Cubs last 7 overall.
- Under is 6-1 in Cubs last 7 on grass.
- Under is 6-2 in Cubs last 8 road games.
- Under is 6-2 in Cubs last 8 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 12-5 in Cubs last 17 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 4-0 in Lester’s last 4 road starts.
- Over is 4-0 in Lester’s last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 8-1 in Lester’s last 9 starts on grass.
- Over is 8-1 in Lester’s last 9 starts overall.
- Under is 5-1 in Lester’s last 6 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance.
- Over is 4-1 in Lester’s last 5 Thursday starts.
- Over is 4-1 in Lester’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 16-5-1 in Lester’s last 22 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Lester’s last 8 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 8-0 in Pirates last 8 Thursday games.
- Over is 5-1 in Pirates last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-1 in Pirates last 6 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 4-1 in Pirates last 5 home games.
- Over is 6-2-1 in Pirates last 9 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 11-4 in Pirates last 15 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 28-11 in Pirates last 39 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Over is 5-2 in Pirates last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Nova’s last 4 starts on grass.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Nova’s last 4 starts overall.
- Under is 9-1 in Nova’s last 10 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Nova’s last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Nova’s last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 19-7-2 in Nova’s last 28 home starts.
- Under is 5-2 in Nova’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 14-6 in Nova’s last 20 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 6-0 in Lester’s last 6 road starts vs. Pirates.
- Over is 6-1 in Lester’s last 7 starts vs. Pirates.
- Pirates are 4-1 in Nova’s last 6 starts vs. Cubs.
- Cubs are 4-1 in Lester’s last 5 starts vs. Pirates.
- Cubs are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Pittsburgh.
- Over is 17-8 in the last 25 meetings in Pittsburgh.
