Chicago Cubs (2-2) at Washington (2-2)
When: Thursday, October 12th 2017
Where: Nationals Park, Washington, DC
Time: 8:05 ET | TV: TBS
Opening Odds: Chicago -115/8
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The Washington Nationals turned a 1-0 game late, into a 5-0 victory on Wednesday, and will now go back home to play a decisive Game 5 against the Chicago Cubs on Thursday night. Game 4 was pushed back a day due to rain, which gave Nationals’ starter Stephen Strasburg and extra day to get over the flu and pitch an absolute gem. Manager Dusty Baker was prepared to stick with Tanner Roark, but made the change on Wednesday morning, and with the seven strong innings Strasburg delivered, gives the Nationals plenty of options out of the bullpen behind Gio Gonzalez, including Max Scherzer. The Cubs’ bullpen is slightly more taxed after burning Game 2 starter Jon Lester on Wednesday, but will have Kyle Hendricks on the mound as he looks to continue a recent history of strong postseason performances. The Cubs have scored only eight runs in the series and managed just three hits in Wednesday’s setback. Third baseman Kris Bryant is just 3-for-15 with nine strikeouts in the series for the Cubs. Washington’s Michael A. Taylor’s eighth-inning grand slam on Wednesday was the first postseason grand slam in Expos/Nationals history, as the Nats have now scored nine of their 12 runs in the series in the eighth inning.
Pitchers: Cubs – Kyle Hendricks (1-0, 0.00 ERA) | Nationals – Gio Gonzalez (0-0, 5.40 ERA)
Hendricks outdueled Strasburg in Game 1, allowing two hits and three walks while recording six strikeouts over seven scoreless innings. Hendricks has received the call for the Cubs’ last two series clinchers – Game 6 of last year’s NL Championship Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers and Game 7 of the World Series versus Cleveland. He is 2-1 with a sparkling 1.98 ERA in eight postseason starts.
Baker told reporters after Game 4 he is “not sure yet” who will start on Thursday and his decision will be based on who is the best fit. I would be surprised if it isn’t Gonzalez, who allowed three runs and three hits over five innings in Game 2 as the Nationals got him off the hook with a late rally. Roark has not started since September 27th, and allowed eight runs in 5.2 innings over his last two regular-season appearances (one start).
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The advantage has to go with the Nationals in this one. Both teams are struggling offensively, but Washington has the momentum and a very fresh bullpen. I expect another low-scoring affair with the Nationals finally winning a postseason series regardless if Gonzalez or Roark starts.
Pick: Nationals +106
BETTING TRENDS:
- Cubs are 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 playoff road games.
- Cubs are 16-5 in their last 21 games on grass.
- Cubs are 21-7 in their last 28 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Cubs are 9-3 in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Cubs are 17-6 in their last 23 overall.
- Cubs are 11-4 in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cubs are 11-4 in their last 15 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cubs are 30-11 in their last 41 games following a loss.
- Cubs are 8-3 in their last 11 vs. National League East.
- Cubs are 8-3 in their last 11 Divisional Playoff games.
- Cubs are 10-4 in their last 14 road games.
- Cubs are 5-2 in their last 7 playoff games.
- Cubs are 35-15 in their last 51 Thursday games.
- Cubs are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Cubs are 0-7 in their last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Cubs are 6-0 in Hendricks’ last 6 Thursday starts.
- Cubs are 6-1 in Hendricks’ last 7 starts vs. National League East.
- Cubs are 8-2 in Hendricks’ last 10 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 24-9 in Hendricks’ last 33 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 1-6 in Hendricks’ last 7 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Nationals are 7-2 in their last 9 Thursday games.
- Nationals are 10-4 in their last 14 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Nationals are 50-24 in their last 74 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Nationals are 2-6 in their last 8 Divisional Playoff home games.
- Nationals are 2-6 in their last 8 playoff home games.
- Nationals are 4-1 in Gonzalez’s last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Nationals are 9-3 in Gonzalez’s last 12 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Nationals are 19-7 in Gonzalez’s last 26 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Nationals are 5-2 in Gonzalez’s last 7 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Nationals are 5-2 in Gonzalez’s last 7 home starts.
- Nationals are 9-4 in Gonzalez’s last 13 starts.
- Nationals are 9-4 in Gonzalez’s last 13 starts on grass.
- Nationals are 2-5 in Gonzalez’s last 7 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Nationals are 5-13 in Gonzalez’s last 18 starts vs. National League Central.
- Nationals are 2-6 in Gonzalez’s last 8 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 games following a loss.
- Under is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 Divisional Playoff road games.
- Under is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 on grass.
- Under is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 overall.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Cubs last 5 during game 5 of a series.
- Under is 20-7-1 in Cubs last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-2 in Cubs last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 30-12-1 in Cubs last 43 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 7-3 in Cubs last 10 road games.
- Over is 11-5-1 in Cubs last 17 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Hendricks’ last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Under is 6-0 in Hendricks’ last 6 starts on grass.
- Under is 6-0 in Hendricks’ last 6 starts overall.
- Under is 6-0 in Hendricks’ last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 10-1 in Hendricks’ last 11 road starts.
- Under is 6-1 in Hendricks’ last 7 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 24-5-1 in Hendricks’ last 30 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1 in Hendricks’ last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 7-2-1 in Hendricks’ last 10 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 16-5 in Hendricks’ last 21 starts vs. National League East.
- Under is 6-2 in Hendricks’ last 8 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0-2 in Nationals last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Nationals last 5 Thursday games.
- Under is 15-3-3 in Nationals last 21 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 9-2-1 in Nationals last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 20-5-2 in Nationals last 27 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 8-2-2 in Nationals last 12 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Nationals last 5 Divisional Playoff games.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Nationals last 5 playoff games.
- Under is 35-13-4 in Nationals last 52 games following a win.
- Under is 34-13-4 in Nationals last 51 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 33-14-7 in Nationals last 54 on grass.
- Under is 33-14-7 in Nationals last 54 overall.
- Under is 37-16-2 in Nationals last 55 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 33-15-4 in Nationals last 52 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Gonzalez’s last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Gonzalez’s last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
- Under is 6-1 in Gonzalez’s last 7 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Gonzalez’s last 7 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Under is 4-1-2 in Gonzalez’s last 7 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Gonzalez’s last 6 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Gonzalez’s last 7 home starts.
- Under is 4-0 in Hendricks’ last 4 starts vs. Nationals.
- Nationals are 1-4 in Gonzalez’s last 5 starts vs. Cubs.
