Dallas (5-3) at Atlanta (4-4)
When: Sunday, November 12th 2017
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Time: 4:25 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: Atlanta -3/53
Open an Account at Bovada Sportsbook Now! Sign up at Bovada.lv to get a $250 Signup Bonus to bet NFL Football odds and props!
The Atlanta Falcons, who are a team that has a lot of trouble stopping the run, will not see last year’s NFL rushing champ, as the Dallas Cowboys will be without Ezekiel Elliott for at least the next four games. A court denied the star running back’s request for an injunction Thursday, making him serve his six-game suspension when the Cowboys face the host the Falcons on Sunday afternoon. Elliott has delayed his suspension related to domestic assault allegations through a series of appeals and court actions, but it appears the Cowboys will be without him for at least the next four games and likely the full six. Elliott has helped Dallas during their current three-game winning streak, and his absence changes how the Cowboys will run their offense. The Falcons have fallen on hard times, dropping four of their last five games to fall two games behind New Orleans in the NFC South standings. Atlanta still continues to move the football – that is until they get into the red zone, as they’re 5th in total offense (372.0), but just 17th in points scored (21.2).
Second-year quarterback Dak Prescott has benefited from a terrific offensive line and a quality running game, but may be forced to throw more than usual in the upcoming weeks with Elliott out. Prescott has thrown 16 touchdown passes to only four interceptions this season after a stellar rookie campaign. Alfred Morris likely will get a chance to be the main ball carrier for the league’s No. 2 rushing offense, but has just 14 carries for 125 yards on the season, albeit a nice 8.3 average. The defense, which ranks in the middle of the league in all main categories, has really clamped down since the bye week. They have allowed less than 20 points in each of their last three wins and have forced seven turnovers over that stretch. Defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence ranks second in the league with 10.5 sacks and has recorded at least one in seven of the eight games this season.
[ad id=’36391′]
Atlanta’s offense seems to be suffering from a Super Bowl hangover, or could just be the change in offensive coordinator. Whatever it is, it needs to get better in the red zone, where they rank 18th in the league after being 8th a year ago. Matt Ryan has thrown 11 touchdown passes and seven interceptions on the heels of his MVP campaign a year ago, and the duo of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are not getting their hands on the ball enough to be effective as the Falcons totaled just 53 rushing yards in last week’s 20-17 loss at Carolina. Atlanta’s run defense ranks 18th in the league after allowing Carolina to run all over them for 201 yards just a week after limiting the New York Jets to 43.
Dallas is playing well right now, but they will miss Elliott more than they know. Atlanta will come after Prescott all day and force him to make mistakes. I’m not giving up on this Atlanta offense. They will get their act together on Sunday in their home enviornment and beat the Cowboys by a touchdown or more.
Pick: Falcons -3
- Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
- Cowboys are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS win.
- Cowboys are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games on grass.
- Cowboys are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 10.
- Cowboys are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Cowboys are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Falcons are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC.
- Falcons are 37-14-1 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Falcons are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Falcons are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in November.
- Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 10.
- Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
- Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
- Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
- Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 vs. NFC.
- Over is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 games in Week 10.
- Over is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games overall.
- Under is 15-6 in Cowboys last 21 road games.
- Under is 9-4 in Cowboys last 13 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 9-4 in Cowboys last 13 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 11-5 in Cowboys last 16 games on grass.
- Over is 6-0 in Falcons last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 12-2 in Falcons last 14 home games.
- Over is 14-3-1 in Falcons last 18 vs. NFC.
- Over is 13-3-1 in Falcons last 17 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Falcons last 5 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Falcons last 6 games on grass.
- Under is 4-1 in Falcons last 5 games in Week 10.
- Under is 20-6 in Falcons last 26 games in November.
- Over is 19-7-1 in Falcons last 27 games overall.
- Under is 8-3 in Falcons last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 8-3 in Falcons last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 17-7 in Falcons last 24 games following a straight up loss.
- Over is 9-4 in Falcons last 13 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 13-6 in Falcons last 19 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
- Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
