Indianapolis (1-3) at New England (2-2)
When: Thursday, October 4th 2018
Where: Gillette Stadium,
Foxborough, Massachusetts
Time: 8:20 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: New England -7.5/55.5
While the Indianapolis Colts’ top wide receiver will be sitting out Thursday, the New England Patriots will welcome back their most productive wideout as the teams kick off Week 5 of the NFL schedule. Julian Edelman, who was banned for violating the NFL’s performance-enhancing substances policy, will return from a four-game suspension for Thursday’s game against the visiting Colts. Edelman rolled up a career-best 1,106 receiving yards in 2016 before a preseason knee injury caused him to miss the 2017 campaign. Quarterback Tom Brady struggled to find chemistry with his wide receivers in the first three games before former Colt Phillip Dorsett and Cordarrelle Patterson each reeled in a touchdown in a 38-7 triumph over Miami on Sunday. Brady ranks outside the top 20 in completion percentage (64.4 percent; 21st among QBs), passing yards per game (230; 24th) and yards per attempt (6.8; tied for 27th) so far this season and will gladly welcome back Edelman. Colts quarterback Andrew Luck completed 40 of 62 passes for 464 yards and four touchdowns in Sunday’s 37-34 overtime setback to Houston, but has not had great success against New England. Luck owns an 0-5 career mark versus the Patriots and has completed just 48 percent of his pass attempts and thrown nine interceptions in three games at Gillette Stadium. New England has won seven straight in the series with the latest coming in October of 2015 – 34-27 Patriots road victory. Their last meeting in Foxboro was that “Deflategate” game, something Patriots fans will surely remember on Thursday.
Without Hilton, Luck will look to distribute the ball to a wide receiver corps consisting of Ryan Grant, Chester Rogers and Zach Pascal. Luck has found running back Nyhiem Hines (team-leading 22 catches), who led the club with nine receptions for 63 yards and two touchdowns last week against Houston. Eric Ebron has made the most of fellow tight end Jack Doyle’s absence due to injury by hauling in a team-leading three touchdown receptions in his last four games. Indianapolis continues to have zero running game – ranking 29th – with Jordan Wilkins leading the club with just 136 rushing yards. Kicker Adam Vinatieri, a former Patriots legend, is nursing a sore groin and did not practice on Tuesday.
While Brady gets Edelman back in the huddle, superstar tight end Rob Gronkowski is questionable for Thursday as he deals with an ankle injury. Gronk leads the Patriots with 233 receiving yards in four games and his 17 catches are second on the team to versatile running back James White. Fellow running back Sony Michel answered a pair of poor performances with a solid one on Sunday, as he rushed 25 times for 112 yards and a touchdown to become the second Patriots running back to eclipse 100 yards rushing in a game since 2016.
This game should feature a lot of offense and the biggest difference in this one is at the wide receiver position. Brady gets his favorite wideout back, while Luck loses his one and only real threat. Just like in years past, the Patriots defense gets stronger as the season progresses. We already know how Thursday night’s favor the home team, and that trend will be evident tonight. New England in a blowout.
Pick: Patriots -10.5
Betting Trends:
- Colts are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 Thursday games.
- Colts are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games in Week 5.
- Colts are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
- Colts are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games following a straight up loss.
- Colts are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Colts are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC.
- Colts are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Patriots are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Patriots are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games in Week 5.
- Patriots are 8-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Patriots are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Patriots are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
- Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Patriots are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 vs. AFC.
- Patriots are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Patriots are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win.
- Patriots are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on fieldturf.
- Patriots are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games following a straight up win.
- Patriots are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Patriots are 35-14-2 ATS in their last 51 games in October.
- Patriots are 30-12 ATS in their last 42 games overall.
- Patriots are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 home games.
- Patriots are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Patriots are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Patriots are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0 in Colts last 6 road games.
- Under is 5-0 in Colts last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 8-1 in Colts last 9 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 8-1 in Colts last 9 games following a straight up loss.
- Over is 6-1 in Colts last 7 games in Week 5.
- Under is 11-2 in Colts last 13 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 10-2 in Colts last 12 games overall.
- Under is 5-1 in Colts last 6 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Over is 8-2 in Colts last 10 games in October.
- Under is 8-2 in Colts last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Colts last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 8-2 in Colts last 10 vs. AFC.
- Under is 8-2 in Colts last 10 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2 in Colts last 8 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games in October.
- Under is 7-0 in Patriots last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 Thursday games.
- Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
- Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games in Week 5.
- Over is 25-8 in Patriots last 33 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 11-4 in Patriots last 15 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 8-3 in Patriots last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 7-3 in Patriots last 10 vs. AFC.
- Over is 7-3 in Patriots last 10 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 13-6 in Patriots last 19 games overall.
- Over is 48-23 in Patriots last 71 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in New England.
- Over is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings.
- Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Underdog is 15-6-2 ATS in their last 23 meetings.
- Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
