Clemson (14-0) vs Alabama (14-0)
When: Monday, January 7th 2019
Where: Levi’s Stadium,
Santa Clara, California
Time: 8:00 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Alabama -9/61
Another year and another huge matchup between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Clemson Tigers – this time to decide who will be crowned College Football’s best team. This will be the fourth straight season the teams have met with Alabama winning the national title following the 2015 season, Clemson taking home the trophy the next season, and the Tide coming away with a 24-6 triumph in last year’s semifinals. The first two meetings were very high scoring – going over the total – as Alabama won 45-40 in January 2016 and Clemson 35-31 in January 2017. Both teams are terrific all-around, ranking in the top five nationally in total offense, scoring offense and scoring defense. In overall defense, Clemson ranks fifth, while Alabama is 13th. Clemson will once again be without star defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence, tight end Braden Galloway and offensive lineman Zach Giella after the trio tested positive for ostarine prior to the national semifinal game against Notre Dame. Galloway and Giella are reserves, but Lawrence is the most dominant force of the Tigers’ defensive line. Alabama suspended tight end Kedrick James and offensive linemen Elliot Baker and Deonte Brown for unspecified NCAA violations prior to the game last week versus Oklahoma, but those players aren’t a huge part of the Tide’s rotation. Clemson had no trouble taking care of the Fighting Irish in the national semifinals, blasting them 30-3, and it appeared Alabama was going to the same thing with the Sooners, but Oklahoma rallied from a 28-0 deficit to claim the cover against the spread late.
Clemson had some close games early in the season then head coach Dabo Swinney made the decision to go with Trevor Lawrence as his starting quarterback after four games. The move had paid off as Lawrence – a freshman – threw for 2,933 yards with 27 touchdowns and four interceptions, while also giving the Tigers a downfield threat on every play with his big arm. Clemson’s balance offense includes running back Travis Etienne, who rumbled for 1,572 yards and 22 touchdowns. The defensive unit boasts four players who have recorded at least 10 tackles for loss, including Clelin Ferrell (18 tackles for loss, 11.5 sacks).
Alabama has been known for defense and running the ball towards championships, but this year’s team is extremely explosive on offense with Heisman Trophy runner-up Tua Tagovailoa (3,671 passing yards, 41 TDs, four interceptions) running the show. Tagovailoa spreads the wealth around nicely, as five receivers have made at least six touchdown receptions, with Jerry Jeudy (1,176 receiving yards, 13 TDs) leading the charge. Alabama’s defense may not be as dominant as some of Nick Saban’s in the past, but is still pretty solid, although, they have given up 454 and 507 total yards, respectively, in its last two games and it won’t get any easier Monday.
These two teams are clearly the best in the country and should put on another great and dramatic show for us on Monday night. Swinney always has his team prepared for big matchups, going 9-3 ATS in Bowl/Playoff games. I think these teams are closer than ever in talent level and I don’t think Saban has a huge coaching edge here. Not having Dexter Lawrence on defense for Clemson will hurt a little, but the Tigers have enough depth to make up for it. Look for Trevor Lawrence to have a huge game here and at least keep this one close.
Pick: Clemson +5.5
Betting Trends:
- Tigers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 bowl games.
- Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
- Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Tigers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games.
- Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.
- Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Tigers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win.
- Tigers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
- Tigers are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Tigers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Tigers are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
- Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Crimson Tide are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. ACC.
- Crimson Tide are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Crimson Tide are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in January.
- Under is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 neutral site games.
- Under is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 games overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 games in January.
- Under is 8-2 in Tigers last 10 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-2 in Tigers last 7 non-conference games.
- Under is 5-2 in Tigers last 7 Monday games.
- Under is 5-2 in Tigers last 7 bowl games.
- Under is 7-3 in Tigers last 10 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 11-5 in Tigers last 16 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Over is 6-1 in Crimson Tide last 7 games in January.
- Over is 4-1 in Crimson Tide last 5 non-conference games.
- Over is 4-1 in Crimson Tide last 5 Monday games.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Crimson Tide last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 20-6-2 in Crimson Tide last 28 neutral site games.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Crimson Tide last 8 vs. ACC.
- Over is 9-4-1 in Crimson Tide last 14 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 11-5 in Crimson Tide last 16 bowl games.
- Over is 19-9-1 in Crimson Tide last 29 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
