Cincinnati (10-1) at Memphis (10-1)
When: Friday, November 29th 2019
Where: Liberty Bowl,
Memphis, TN
Time: 3:30 ET | TV: ABC
Opening Odds: Memphis -9/56.5
The Cincinnati Bearcats and Memphis Tigers will meet on Friday afternoon for the first of maybe two consecutive meetings in eight days to determine who wins the American Athletic Conference. The AAC championship game takes place next Saturday and the Bearcats have already punched their ticket to the game by winning the East Division. Who they play will come down to what happens in this contest, and maybe the Navy vs. Houston game on Saturday. The Tigers are 11.5-point favorites against Cincinnati, and if they take care of business, will win the West and play the Bearcats next week. Should Memphis slip up, the door is open for Navy to grab the division crown and go to Cincinnati next week. The Bearcats’ only loss this season came at No. 2 (currently) Ohio State, and they have won nine straight since, including last week’s 15-13 struggle over Temple. The Cincy defense has held opponents to 19.9 points per game despite allowing 42 to the Buckeyes), which is tied for 23rd in the nation. They will have a test Friday against a Memphis offense that ranks eighth in the country in scoring at 42.2 points per game behind the play of quarterback Brady White and running back Kenneth Gainwell. The Tigers beat Navy earlier this season, which is why they have the tiebreaker over the Midshipmen should they wind-up with the same record. Memphis earned a 34-7 at Cincinnati the last time these teams met in 2016.
Cincinnati has just the 110th-ranked passing offense in FBS (179.5) and have failed to pass for more than 100 yards in consecutive games for the first time since 1997, throwing for 78 yards against South Florida and 62 against Temple. Sophomore quarterback Desmond Ridder doesn’t have a touchdown pass in the last two games and has completed less than 50 percent of his throws. Running back Michael Warren II is about to crack 1,000 yards for the second straight season and has 939 on the season with 11 touchdowns. The Bearcats have scored in 35 of its last 38 trips in the red zone, including its last 19. Cincinnati is tied with Ohio State for seventh in the nation with 23 takeaways this season.
White is having a monster season with 3,074 yards and 30 TDs, while Gainwell has recorded 1,294 yards and 12 touchdowns as well as making 38 catches for 472 yards and three more scores. Fellow running back Patrick Taylor Jr. – in just his second game back after missing eight contests with injury – had a three-TD game in the win over South Florida. Memphis has a streak of five consecutive games of 40 or more points and three straight games with more than 510 yards of total offense, but rainy weather and a strong Cincinnati defense could snap those streaks. The Tigers’ defense ranks 42nd in the country in yards allowed at 361.7 per game.
I have to take the points in this game with the way Cincinnati’s defense has been playing and the fact that the road team has covered the spread in each of the last four meetings. Memphis wins this game by single-digits and sets up a rematch next week.
Pick: Cincinnati +11.5 (More Week 14 Free Picks)
Betting Trends:
Bearcats are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Bearcats are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Bearcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Bearcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Bearcats are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in November.
Bearcats are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bearcats are 3-9 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Bearcats are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Bearcats are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games.
Bearcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
Bearcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Bearcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Tigers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 Friday games.
Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Tigers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games.
Tigers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.
Tigers are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Tigers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Tigers are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 conference games.
Tigers are 38-15-2 ATS in their last 55 games in November.
Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Tigers are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-0 in Bearcats last 4 games on fieldturf.
Under is 5-1 in Bearcats last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 4-1 in Bearcats last 5 games overall.
Under is 4-1 in Bearcats last 5 games following a straight up win.
Under is 8-2 in Bearcats last 10 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 4-1 in Bearcats last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1 in Bearcats last 5 conference games.
Under is 11-3 in Bearcats last 14 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Under is 3-1-1 in Bearcats last 5 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 17-7-1 in Bearcats last 25 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 24-11 in Bearcats last 35 games in November.
Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games on fieldturf.
Over is 8-1 in Tigers last 9 conference games.
Over is 7-1 in Tigers last 8 games overall.
Over is 6-1 in Tigers last 7 games following a straight up win.
Over is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Over is 13-3 in Tigers last 16 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 7-2 in Tigers last 9 games in November.
Over is 21-6 in Tigers last 27 games following a ATS win.
Over is 10-4 in Tigers last 14 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 20-8 in Tigers last 28 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 19-8 in Tigers last 27 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Over is 35-16 in Tigers last 51 home games.
Bearcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Memphis.
Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Bearcats are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
