Kansas City (4-2) at Denver (2-4)
When: Thursday, October 17th, 2019
Where: Empower Field,
Denver, Colorado
Time: 8:20 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: Kansas City -4.5/50
What is wrong with the Kansas City Chiefs? They came into this season as one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl and got off to a great start with two blowout wins, but then they barely won and covered the spread against Baltimore. The next week, they were fortunate to escape Detroit with a win, and now they have lost their last two games outright to the Colts and Texans. They will now have little time to prepare for a key AFC West battle against the Denver Broncos this Thursday night that kicks off Week 7 of the NFL season. What Kansas City is doing, is making this division race interesting, especially if they lose this week to the last place Broncos, who come in as only 3.5-point home dogs at most online sportsbooks around the globe. Denver has followed an 0-4 start with two straight wins to get back into the AFC West race and the defense has been the key. Last year, the Chiefs swept the Broncos by a combined 10 points and last year’s contest in Mile High was a Monday night affair that Kansas City won 27-23. The Broncos led 23-13 midway through the fourth quarter, but Patrick Mahomes dazzled with for 304 yards and a touchdown to Travis Kelce with 6:27 left, and then Kareem Hunt won it on a 4-yard TD run. It was the first time since 2004 that the Broncos blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead at home. Kansas City has covered seven of the past 10 in the series and the over is 5-4-1 in that span.
Mahomes is dealing with an ankle injury, which is probably why the Chiefs haven’t been themselves offensively in losing back-to-back games. He managed to throw for 273 yards and three scores in Sunday’s 31-24 upset loss to Houston but completed just 19-of-35. The good news is that Pro Bowl receiver Tyreek Hill returned from an injury absence and caught two of those scores. The Chiefs were without a few injured starters in receiver Sammy Watkins (hamstring), left tackle Eric Fisher (groin), left guard Andrew Wylie (ankle). Watkins and Wylie are questionable on short-rest, while Fisher has been ruled out. The defense, which is 27th overall and 30th against the run, were without defensive tackle Chris Jones (groin) and linebacker Anthony Hitchens (groin) last week. It won’t get any easier after Thursday, as Kansas City will host Green Bay and Minnesota in back-to-back weeks.
Denver is playing better than their 2-4 record because they actually lost two games on a field goal as time expired, but left no doubt last week in a convincing 16-0 win over Tennessee. The Titans were held to 204 yards, saw their quarterbacks sacked seven times and had three turnovers. It was the first time Denver had seven sacks and three interceptions in a game since 1984. The Broncos have held their past two opponents to 74 yards rushing combined and rank fourth in total defense. Top receiver Emmanuel Sanders missed the second half with a knee injury, but isn’t listed on the injury report yet. They could really use him, as the Denver offense ranks 25th overall and 23rd in passing. Denver travels to Indianapolis next week to take on the Colts.
Denver’s defense has been playing outstanding, but I just can’t pass up taking the Chiefs laying just over a field goal. The offense is still very dangerous and I think they’ll be focused and ready to go on Thursday. The Broncos’ offense is not good at all and won’t be able to catch up when they get behind.
Pick: Chiefs -3.5 (More Week 7 Free Picks)
Chiefs are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 vs. AFC West.
Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Chiefs are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Chiefs are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 road games.
Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Chiefs are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Chiefs are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
Broncos are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Thursday games.
Broncos are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Broncos are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Broncos are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Broncos are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
Broncos are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC.
Broncos are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Broncos are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 vs. AFC West.
Over is 5-0 in Chiefs last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 games in Week 7.
Over is 5-1-1 in Chiefs last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Chiefs last 6 Thursday games.
Over is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 7-2 in Chiefs last 9 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 17-5 in Chiefs last 22 road games.
Over is 6-2 in Chiefs last 8 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 10-4 in Chiefs last 14 games overall.
Under is 5-0-1 in Broncos last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Under is 7-0-1 in Broncos last 8 vs. AFC West.
Under is 4-0-1 in Broncos last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 10-1-1 in Broncos last 12 games following a straight up win.
Under is 9-1 in Broncos last 10 home games.
Under is 6-1-1 in Broncos last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 6-1-1 in Broncos last 8 games following a ATS win.
Under is 6-1-1 in Broncos last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 15-3 in Broncos last 18 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 19-6-1 in Broncos last 26 games overall.
Under is 19-6-1 in Broncos last 26 vs. AFC.
Over is 3-1-1 in Broncos last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Under is 3-1-1 in Broncos last 5 games in October.
Under is 18-7-1 in Broncos last 26 games on grass.
Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Denver.
Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Over is 5-1-2 in the last 8 meetings.
Road team is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
Underdog is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
