Boston (3-2) at Milwaukee (2-3)
When: Thursday, April 26th 2018
Where: Bradley Center, Milwaukee, WI
Time: 8:05 ET | TV: TNT
Opening Odds: Milwaukee -5/200
The seventh-seeded Milwaukee Bucks are giving No. 2 seed the Boston Celtics all they can handle in their first round Eastern Conference series and will look to extend the series to the max when they host Game 6 on Thursday night. The home team has won each game as the Celtics took Game 5 back in Boston 92-87 on Tuesday to put the Bucks on the brink of elimination. The winner of this best-of-seven series will take on the upstart Philadelphia 76ers in the second round. Al Horford came up big for Boston with 22 points and 14 rebounds, while Marcus Smart (thumb surgery) made an impact in his first game since mid-March with nine points, five rounds, four assists, and three blocks off the bench. Khris Middleton led Milwaukee with 23 points, Jabari Parker added 17 and eight rebounds, and Giannis Antetokounmpo had a series-low 16 points, but almost recorded a triple-double (10 rebounds, nine assists). The Bucks shot well over 50% from the floor in the previous three games before being held to 36.8% in Game 5, as Antetokounmpo was limited to just 10 shot attempts. Boston has covered the spread in four of the first five games.
Smart, who was out since March 11 with a right thumb injury, also made the defense and toughness better for Boston with his return, as the Celtics allowed an average of 110 points in losing games 3 and 4. Horford is averaging 18.2 points on 54.5% shooting and 8.6 rebounds in the first five games of the series. Center Greg Monroe had a double-double in Game 3 but played five scoreless minutes in Game 4 and did not appear in Tuesday’s win. Boston is only shooting 43.8% in this series.
Though Middleton led the Bucks with 23 points, he was only 9-of-21 from the floor after shooting 40-for-65 through the first four games of the series. The Bucks are still shooting over 50% for the series despite their poor effort in Game 5 and are doing a great job defensively. 6’11” center John Henson has missed the last three games with a back injury and is day-to-day. The former North Carolina Tar Heel scored 12 points on 6-of-7 shooting in Game 2 and recorded six blocks in Game 1.
This series is all about the home team. The Bucks are shooting terrific and will keep that up at home in this game. I expect the ‘Greek Freak’ to lead the way after a sub-par effort last time out. The home team has won seven straight games dating back to the regular season.
Pick: Bucks -5
- Celtics are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 Conference Quarterfinals games.
- Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Central.
- Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.
- Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
- Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
- Celtics are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 1 days rest.
- Celtics are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Celtics are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Celtics are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games overall.
- Celtics are 41-18-2 ATS in their last 61 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Celtics are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 road games.
- Bucks are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games playing on 1 days rest.
- Bucks are 15-32-4 ATS in their last 51 home games.
- Bucks are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
- Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Bucks are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.
- Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Atlantic.
- Bucks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Bucks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Conference Quarterfinals games.
- Over is 6-0 in Celtics last 6 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 8-1 in Celtics last 9 overall.
- Over is 8-1 in Celtics last 9 vs. Eastern Conference.
- Over is 6-1 in Celtics last 7 vs. NBA Central.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Celtics last 8 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
- Over is 5-1 in Celtics last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
- Over is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 road games.
- Over is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 Conference Quarterfinals games.
- Over is 7-2-1 in Celtics last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 11-1 in Bucks last 12 games following a straight up loss.
- Over is 11-1 in Bucks last 12 vs. NBA Atlantic.
- Over is 8-1 in Bucks last 9 home games.
- Over is 7-1 in Bucks last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Over is 6-1 in Bucks last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
- Over is 14-3 in Bucks last 17 games playing on 1 days rest.
- Over is 14-3 in Bucks last 17 vs. Eastern Conference.
- Over is 4-1 in Bucks last 5 Conference Quarterfinals games.
- Over is 20-6 in Bucks last 26 overall.
- Under is 10-3 in Bucks last 13 Thursday games.
- Over is 16-5 in Bucks last 21 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 6-2 in Bucks last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 5-2 in Bucks last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Celtics are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
- Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
- Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Milwaukee.
- Celtics are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Milwaukee.
- Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
- Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
