Tampa Bay (1-2) at LA Rams (3-0)
When: Sunday, September 29, 2019
Where: L.A. Memorial Coliseum,
Los Angeles, CA
Time: 4:05 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: Los Angeles -9.5/50
One team that seems to be overlooked this NFL season so far are the Los Angeles Rams. The defending NFC Champions continue to roll along and are one of seven undefeated teams left entering Sunday’s action and will host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a Week 4 battle. L.A. already has two road wins after last week’s 20-13 triumph at Cleveland on Sunday Night Football and are 3-0 straight up, and also 3-0 against the spread this season. They are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games dating back to last season and 6-0 ATS in their last six games against NFC opponents. It’s been said that the Rams don’t have much of a homefield advantage, but they’re 8-1 SU over their last nine at the Coliseum and will host a Bucs team that is coming off a bad loss at home last week to the New York Giants. Tampa Bay was in full control of the game, up 28-10 only to watch the lead evaporate and have the Giants pull out a 32-31 victory behind a rookie quarterback. The Bucs are 1-2 ATS on the season and are 0-6 ATS in their last six meetings with the Rams. L.A. has won five straight meetings, including a 37-32 victory at Tampa Bay in 2016 in which Todd Gurley ran for two scores and Tampa’s Jameis Winston threw for a career-high 405 yards.
The Bucs need to get a little better defensively after allowing 30+ points in their two losses, but don’t blame Shaq Barrett. The sixth-year linebacker had a career day versus the Giants recording four sacks and his three game total of eight ties him with Mark Gastineau (1984) for the most sacks by a player through the first three games. Offensively, wide receiver Mike Evans broke-out for 190 yards and three touchdowns after being held to just six catches for 89 yards through the first two games. The inconsistent Winston has improved significantly since throwing three interceptions in Week 1. He’s recorded a QBR over 100 in each of the last two games, with a TD:INT ratio of 4:1. The Bucs will try and stay in the NFC South race with games against New Orleans and Carolina on deck before heading into their bye.
We know the Rams can score, but the defense has been the key over the last two games, allowing just 22 points in wins over the Browns and Saints, albeit, without Drew Brees playing for New Orleans. Running back Todd Gurley continues to put up pedestrian numbers after rushing for 1251 yards and 17 touchdowns last season. Gurley has 44 carries for 203 yards and only one touchdown through three games in 2019. Wide receiver Cooper Kupp has been a force since coming back from an injury that shortened his 2018 season and has 23 receptions for 268 yards already, giving quarterback Jared Goff plenty of weapons to throw to. Goff has completed 62.9 percent of his passes for 738 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions and has one or less scoring pass in six of his last eight games.
This is still a pretty solid Rams team that plays well on both sides of the ball. Tampa Bay is a mess until they find a more consistent quarterback. Winston is going to be running for his life all day and make enough mistakes that will keep his team from having any chance in this one. Rams big here.
Pick: Rams -9 (More Week 4 Free Picks)
Buccaneers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
Buccaneers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games.
Buccaneers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Buccaneers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Buccaneers are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Buccaneers are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Buccaneers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games on grass.
Buccaneers are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 4.
Rams are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.
Rams are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Rams are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Rams are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Rams are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 4-0 in Buccaneers last 4 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Under is 5-0 in Buccaneers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-1 in Buccaneers last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 games in Week 4.
Under is 7-2 in Buccaneers last 9 games overall.
Over is 6-2 in Buccaneers last 8 games in September.
Under is 6-2 in Buccaneers last 8 games on grass.
Under is 6-2 in Buccaneers last 8 vs. NFC.
Over is 13-5 in Buccaneers last 18 road games.
Over is 10-4 in Buccaneers last 14 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Rams last 5 games overall.
Under is 4-1 in Rams last 5 games following a straight up win.
Under is 4-1 in Rams last 5 games following a ATS win.
Over is 4-1 in Rams last 5 games in Week 4.
Over is 5-2 in Rams last 7 home games.
Over is 5-2 in Rams last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Underdog is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
Buccaneers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
