Milwaukee (46-41) at Cincinnati (40-44)
When: Thursday, July 4th, 2019
Where: Great American Ballpark,
Cincinnati, Ohio
Time: 2:10 ET | TV: FS Ohio,
FS Wisconsin
Opening Odds: Milwaukee -115/9
Boy, are the Cincinnati Reds making the National League Central interesting as we approach the All-Star Break. Neither the Milwaukee Brewers nor Chicago Cubs seem to have any interest in pulling away at the moment, setting up a fun race for the second half. The Reds go for their third straight win over the Brewers on Thursday, and despite being in last place, are only 4.5 games out of first in the Central. Yasiel Puig has tormented Milwaukee all season and has been a big key the last two nights, scoring the winning run in the 11th inning Tuesday, and homering for the second straight contest to help Cincinnati to a 3-0 win on Wednesday. Puig is now 13-for-32 with four homers, 11 RBI and eight runs scored in the season series versus the Brewers. Reds’ pitching has held Milwaukee scoreless over the past 14 innings of the series, as the Brew Crew have lost 10 of its last 16 games overall. Christian Yelich received a rare night off on Wednesday after homering in each of the first two games of the series, while Mike Moustakas has hit safely in 10 of his last 12 games. The Brewers still hold a 7-5 edge in the season series entering Thursday’s contest.
Pitchers: Brewers – Brandon Woodruff (10-2, 3.79 ERA) | Reds – Luis Castillo (7-3, 2.47)
Brandon Woodruff earned his 10th win of the season last time out when he allowed one run and six hits in 7.2 innings against Pittsburgh on Saturday. Milwaukee has won 14 of his 17 starts this season including five of seven on the road. Woodruff’s previous outing came against the Reds on June 23rd and he struck out a career-high 12 batters in seven innings of a 7-5 victory. Joey Votto, who is 5-for-6 with two homers and five RBI in his career versus Woodruff, blasted a three-run shot off him in that contest.
10 CENT MLB LINES & 1% CASH BACK
The Reds are just 8-9 when Luis Castillo starts despite his 7-3 record and 2.47 ERA. He was hit hard at Milwaukee on June 22nd for six runs – four earned – in 3.2 innings but answered that by holding the Pirates to one run on three hits over seven solid innings. Castillo is 2-3 with a 4.08 ERA in seven career starts against the Brewers, but held them to one hit in seven innings at home back in April.
Milwaukee’s offense is really having a tough time right now, scoring three runs or less in six of their last nine games and are playing a Reds team that is gaining confidence. Both of these pitchers have been good, but I’m giving the edge to Castillo at home.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free MLB Picks page for Thursday. He is 86-61 +1528 units on the season!
Pick: Reds +110
Fourth of July Free MLB Picks from Bobby and Jay
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BETTING TRENDS:
Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 Thursday games.
Brewers are 5-2 in their last 7 during game 4 of a series.
Brewers are 11-5 in their last 16 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Brewers are 40-19 in their last 59 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Brewers are 2-7 in their last 9 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Brewers are 1-5 in their last 6 road games.
Brewers are 8-0 in Woodruff’s last 8 starts vs. National League Central.
Brewers are 4-0 in Woodruff’s last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
Brewers are 7-1 in Woodruff’s last 8 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Brewers are 6-1 in Woodruff’s last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Brewers are 5-1 in Woodruff’s last 6 road starts.
Brewers are 5-1 in Woodruff’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Brewers are 5-1 in Woodruff’s last 6 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Brewers are 19-7 in Woodruff’s last 26 starts.
Brewers are 19-7 in Woodruff’s last 26 starts on grass.
Reds are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Reds are 8-2 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Reds are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Reds are 6-2 in their last 8 Thursday games.
Reds are 14-5 in their last 19 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Reds are 5-2 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Reds are 10-4 in their last 14 vs. a team with a winning record.
Reds are 1-9 in their last 10 during game 4 of a series.
Reds are 5-1 in Castillo’s last 6 Thursday starts.
Reds are 4-1 in Castillo’s last 5 starts during game 4 of a series.
Reds are 10-4 in Castillo’s last 14 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Reds are 10-4 in Castillo’s last 14 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Reds are 5-2 in Castillo’s last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Reds are 2-5 in Castillo’s last 7 starts.
Reds are 2-5 in Castillo’s last 7 starts on grass.
Reds are 1-4 in Castillo’s last 5 starts vs. National League Central.
Reds are 1-4 in Castillo’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 games following a loss.
Under is 7-1 in Brewers last 8 overall.
Under is 7-1 in Brewers last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 7-1 in Brewers last 8 on grass.
Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 during game 4 of a series.
Under is 6-1 in Brewers last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 vs. National League Central.
Under is 4-1-1 in Brewers last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 16-6-1 in Brewers last 23 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 22-9-1 in Brewers last 32 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 7-3 in Brewers last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Over is 5-1 in Woodruff’s last 6 starts vs. National League Central.
Over is 4-1 in Woodruff’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
Over is 5-2 in Woodruff’s last 7 starts on grass.
Over is 5-2 in Woodruff’s last 7 starts overall.
Under is 7-3 in Woodruff’s last 10 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Under is 5-1 in Reds last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Reds last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 11-3 in Reds last 14 games following a win.
Under is 11-3 in Reds last 14 home games.
Under is 16-5 in Reds last 21 Thursday games.
Under is 19-6-1 in Reds last 26 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Under is 15-5 in Reds last 20 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 8-3 in Reds last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 18-7-1 in Reds last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-2 in Reds last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 43-19-3 in Reds last 65 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 67-31-3 in Reds last 101 overall.
Under is 67-31-3 in Reds last 101 on grass.
Under is 4-0 in Castillo’s last 4 Thursday starts.
Under is 6-0 in Castillo’s last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 8-1 in Castillo’s last 9 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Under is 12-2 in Castillo’s last 14 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 10-3 in Castillo’s last 13 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Under is 9-3 in Castillo’s last 12 starts with 4 days of rest.
Under is 6-2 in Castillo’s last 8 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 8-3 in Castillo’s last 11 home starts.
Under is 20-8 in Castillo’s last 28 starts on grass.
Under is 20-8 in Castillo’s last 28 starts overall.
Under is 7-3 in Castillo’s last 10 starts vs. National League Central.
Under is 4-0 in Castillo’s last 4 home starts vs. Brewers.
Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Cincinnati.
Brewers are 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Cincinnati.
Under is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings.
Reds are 0-4 in Castillo’s last 4 starts vs. Brewers.
