Milwaukee (86-70) at Cincinnati (73-83)
When: Tuesday, September 24, 2019
Where: Great American Ballpark,
Cincinnati, Ohio
Time: 6:40 ET | TV: FS Wisconsin/Ohio
Opening Odds: Cincinnati -137/8.5
The Cincinnati Reds have been playing playoff contenders it seems like for weeks now and will get another one coming to town on Tuesday when they host the red-hot Milwaukee Brewers to begin a three-game series. The Reds have been long out of contention but they’ll be favorites in the series opener with Sonny Gray on the mound against Milwaukee’s Adrian Houser, who is coming off an encouraging outing. Many people thought the Brewers were in trouble when they lost MVP Christian Yelich, but the team just keeps rolling and could lock up a playoff spot before the end of the week. Milwaukee completed their home schedule with a 4-3 victory over Pittsburgh on Sunday that left them in a virtual tie with Washington atop the wild-card standings and three games behind NL Central-leading St. Louis entering Monday, while being four-clear of fading Chicago. Eric Thames blasted two home runs to help the Brewers improve to 15-2 in its last 17 games and 10-2 since losing Yelich for the season. The Reds won back-to-back series against wild-card hopefuls Arizona and the Cubs before dropping two of three to the New York Mets over the weekend. Third baseman Eugenio Suarez sits at 48 home runs on the season, one shy of Ted Kluszewski (1954) for the second-most in team history.
Pitchers: Brewers – Adrian Houser (6-7, 3.83 ERA) | Reds – Sonny Gray (11-7, 2.80)
Houser rebounded from a couple of rough outings to limit the San Diego Padres to two runs and three hits on Wednesday, but suffered his seventh loss. The Brewers are just 1-4 in his last five starts and he’s finished five innings just once in his last four outings. Houser has made one start (three runs in five innings) and three relief appearances against the Reds this year.
Gray hasn’t allowed more than two runs just once in his last nine starts and the Reds are 7-2 in that span after a 4-2 at the Cubs last Tuesday when he allowed two runs while striking out nine in 6.2 innings. He is 6-2 with a 1.91 ERA since the All-Star break and will be seeing Milwaukee for the fifth time this season. Gray has three strong outings and one dud against the Brewers in 2019.
The pitching matchup favors the Reds, but this Milwaukee team is just on fire right now and if I can get them as an underdog, I’ll take it. The Brewers have a losing road record overall (37-38) but have won eight of nine away from Miller Park.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free MLB Picks page for Tuesday. He is 131-93 +2463 units on the season after a 32-20 run!
Pick: Brewers +115
BETTING TRENDS:
Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.
Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Brewers are 7-0 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Brewers are 8-1 in their last 9 road games.
Brewers are 7-1 in their last 8 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Brewers are 12-2 in their last 14 games following a win.
Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Brewers are 16-5 in their last 21 vs. a team with a losing record.
Brewers are 22-8 in their last 30 overall.
Brewers are 22-8 in their last 30 games on grass.
Brewers are 21-8 in their last 29 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Brewers are 38-18 in their last 56 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Brewers are 5-12 in their last 17 Tuesday games.
Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 games following an off day.
Brewers are 1-4 in Houser’s last 5 starts.
Brewers are 1-4 in Houser’s last 5 starts on grass.
Brewers are 1-5 in Houser’s last 6 road starts.
Brewers are 1-6 in Houser’s last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Brewers are 0-5 in Houser’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss.
Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Reds are 7-3 in their last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Reds are 13-6 in their last 19 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Reds are 3-8 in their last 11 vs. National League Central.
Reds are 1-6 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.
Reds are 1-12 in their last 13 games following an off day.
Reds are 9-0 in Gray’s last 9 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Reds are 4-0 in Gray’s last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
Reds are 5-0 in Gray’s last 5 starts with 6 days of rest.
Reds are 4-0 in Gray’s last 4 Tuesday starts.
Reds are 10-1 in Gray’s last 11 home starts.
Reds are 14-2 in Gray’s last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Reds are 11-2 in Gray’s last 13 starts vs. National League Central.
Reds are 5-1 in Gray’s last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Reds are 7-2 in Gray’s last 9 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Reds are 17-5 in Gray’s last 22 starts.
Reds are 17-5 in Gray’s last 22 starts on grass.
Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 Tuesday games.
Under is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Under is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Under is 9-3 in Brewers last 12 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 6-2 in Brewers last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 5-2 in Brewers last 7 overall.
Under is 5-2 in Brewers last 7 on grass.
Over is 5-2 in Brewers last 7 vs. National League Central.
Over is 14-6-2 in Brewers last 22 games following an off day.
Over is 7-3 in Brewers last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 34-15-2 in Brewers last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 5-1 in Houser’s last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Houser’s last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
Under is 4-1 in Houser’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
Under is 6-2 in Houser’s last 8 starts on grass.
Under is 6-2 in Houser’s last 8 starts overall.
Over is 6-2 in Houser’s last 8 starts vs. National League Central.
Under is 5-1-1 in Reds last 7 games following a loss.
Under is 5-1 in Reds last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-1-1 in Reds last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 8-2-2 in Reds last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 8-2-1 in Reds last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 10-3-2 in Reds last 15 home games.
Under is 9-3-2 in Reds last 14 overall.
Under is 9-3-2 in Reds last 14 on grass.
Under is 3-1-1 in Reds last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 20-7 in Reds last 27 Tuesday games.
Under is 5-2-2 in Reds last 9 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 9-4-1 in Reds last 14 games following an off day.
Under is 3-0-1 in Gray’s last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Under is 3-0-1 in Gray’s last 4 starts on grass.
Under is 3-0-1 in Gray’s last 4 starts overall.
Under is 4-0 in Gray’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 10-2-1 in Gray’s last 13 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Gray’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-2 in Gray’s last 7 home starts.
Reds are 4-0 in Gray’s last 4 starts vs. Brewers.
Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Cincinnati.
Brewers are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings.
