Milwaukee (46-33) at Cincinnati (34-46)
When: Thursday, June 28th 2018
Where: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
Time: 7:10 ET | TV: FS Wisconsin, FS Ohio
Opening Odds: Milwaukee -113/9.5
Don’t look now, but the last-place Cincinnati Reds are one of the hottest teams in baseball and will begin a seven-game homestand against the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday night. The Reds improved to 9-1 in their last 10 games – their best stretch in six years – by rallying for a 6-5 win at NL East-leading Atlanta on Wednesday. It was Cincinnati’s fifth come-from-behind victory in that span and are now 31-31 under interim manager Jim Riggleman. The division-leading Brewers have lost three of four after splitting a two-game interleague series against the Kansas City Royals, but have won five-straight against the Reds including a three-game sweep at Great American Ballpark from April 30th-May 2nd. First baseman Jesus Aguilar has been on fire, homering in both games against the Royals, giving him seven dingers and 15 RBIs over his last 10 games. Cincinnati’s Scooter Gennett, who leads the National League with a .336 batting average, is currently on a 10-game hitting streak.
Pitchers: Brewers – Junior Guerra (3-5, 2.82 ERA) | Reds – Anthony DeSclafani (3-1, 4.09)
Junior Guerra has had some tough-luck this season with a losing record but sub-3.00 ERA. He is now winless in his last seven starts after not factoring in the decision against St. Louis on Friday, allowing just one run on three hits while striking out seven over five-plus innings. It marked the eighth consecutive outing in which Guerra did not allow more than three runs. He shutout the Reds on one hit over 5.2 innings in a no-decision on April 17th.
Anthony DeSclafani is a perfect 3-0 in his last three outings after holding the Cubs to two runs on three hits over a season-high 6.1 innings while helping himself by blasting a grand slam. DeSclafani gave up two runs on three hits in his previous start at Pittsburgh, with all four runs in the past two starts coming on solo homers. He is 2-2 with a 4.15 ERA in five appearances (four starts) versus the Brewers, but hasn’t faced them since September of 2016.
Guerra has been really good, but he’s just not getting the run support he needs. DeSclafani has been getting the support, but he’s allowed four home runs in the past two games, and that worries me. The Brewers got the offense back on track a little against Kansas City after faltering in St. Louis. Look for the Brewers to improve on their 5-1 season mark against the Reds here.
Pick: Brewers -105
BETTING TRENDS:
- Brewers are 15-5 in their last 20 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Brewers are 15-6 in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Brewers are 2-6 in Guerra’s last 8 road starts.
- Brewers are 1-4 in Guerra’s last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Brewers are 1-5 in Guerra’s last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Reds are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Reds are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 Thursday games.
- Reds are 7-0 in their last 7 home games.
- Reds are 8-1 in their last 9 overall.
- Reds are 8-1 in their last 9 games on grass.
- Reds are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Reds are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Reds are 17-36 in their last 53 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Reds are 4-0 in DeSclafani’s last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
- Reds are 4-1 in DeSclafani’s last 5 starts.
- Reds are 4-1 in DeSclafani’s last 5 starts on grass.
- Reds are 10-4 in DeSclafani’s last 14 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Reds are 1-6 in DeSclafani’s last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 9-2-1 in Brewers last 12 Thursday games.
- Under is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 7-2 in Brewers last 9 road games.
- Under is 47-15-1 in Brewers last 63 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 5-2 in Brewers last 7 overall.
- Under is 5-2 in Brewers last 7 on grass.
- Under is 83-36-4 in Brewers last 123 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 35-16-1 in Brewers last 52 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Guerra’s last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Guerra’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 9-1 in Guerra’s last 10 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 6-1 in Guerra’s last 7 starts on grass.
- Under is 6-1 in Guerra’s last 7 starts overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Guerra’s last 5 road starts.
- Under is 6-2 in Guerra’s last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 15-6 in Guerra’s last 21 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 8-2-1 in Reds last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1 in Reds last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 8-2-1 in Reds last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 7-2-1 in Reds last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Reds last 5 overall.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Reds last 5 on grass.
- Over is 9-3-1 in Reds last 13 home games.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Reds last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Reds last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-1 in DeSclafani’s last 6 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Over is 4-1 in DeSclafani’s last 5 home starts.
- Over is 6-2 in DeSclafani’s last 8 starts on grass.
- Over is 6-2 in DeSclafani’s last 8 starts overall.
- Under is 8-3-3 in DeSclafani’s last 14 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 15-7-1 in DeSclafani’s last 23 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Brewers are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
