Milwaukee (89-73) at Washington (93-69)
When: Tuesday, October 1st 2019
Where: Nationals Park,
Washington, DC
Time: 8:08 ET | TV: TBS
Opening Odds: Washington -175/8
There seemed to be no hope for the Washington Nationals when they were sitting at 19-31 and battling the Miami Marlins for the NL East cellar, but Baseball is a very long season. That Nationals didn’t give up and even threatened the Atlanta Braves for the division crown at one point before settling for a wild card spot and a date with the equally-surging Milwaukee Brewers on Tuesday night. Washington hasn’t had much success in the postseason even when they won the NL East in recent years, so maybe being in this position will help motivate them. All hands are on deck for this contest against Milwaukee with ace Max Scherzer getting the start and fellow starters Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin waiting in the wings out of the bullpen. The Nats enter the playoffs on an eight-game winning streak after sweeping five from the Phillies and three at home versus the Indians over the weekend. Milwaukee used an 18-2 run to soar into the postseason, but then dropped their final three in Colorado when they had a chance to win the NL Central over the St. Louis Cardinals. Brandon Woodruff will get the start for the Brew Crew on Tuesday with plenty of bullpen help behind him. Milwaukee swept three from the Nationals at home in May, but Washington won two of three at Nationals Park in August with the lone loss being one of the wildest games of the season – a 15-14 back-and-forth slugfest in extra innings.
Pitchers: Brewers – Brandon Woodruff (11-3, 3.62 ERA) | Nationals – Max Scherzer (11-7, 2.92)
Woodruff has been quite impressive in his only two starts against Washington including a six-inning gem earlier this season in which he allowed just one run and four hits while striking out nine. He’s been limited to four innings since missing nearly two months with an oblique injury and will be followed by one of the best bullpens in that league. Closer Josh Hader averages around 16 strikeouts per nine innings, and he can provide multiple innings along with Drew Pomeranz and Brent Suter. Woodruff posted a 1.46 ERA in four games (one start) in the 2018 postseason.
Scherzer went on the injured list twice in the second half with back and shoulder issues but struggled in the month of September, allowing three runs or more in four of his five starts. He struck out 21 over his last two outings, but also served-up four home runs. Scherzer, who has allowed more than two runs just once in his eight lifetime starts versus Milwaukee, is 4-5 with a 3.73 ERA in 16 career postseason games (13 starts).
Scherzer doesn’t appear to be 100% and doesn’t have a great track record in the postseason, and neither do the Nationals. I know Washington has Strasburg and Corbin available, but using a top-line starter out of the bullpen doesn’t necessarily equal success. Milwaukee utilizes their pitching staff better than most teams in the league and have been a little more successful in the postseason than Washington has. I’ll take the dog here.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free MLB Picks page for Tuesday. He finished 135-95 +2686 units in the regular season!
Pick: Brewers +165
BETTING TRENDS:
Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League East.
Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 Tuesday games.
Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Brewers are 6-2 in their last 8 games following a loss.
Brewers are 21-7 in their last 28 overall.
Brewers are 6-2 in their last 8 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Brewers are 21-7 in their last 28 games on grass.
Brewers are 14-5 in their last 19 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Brewers are 11-4 in their last 15 road games.
Brewers are 10-4 in their last 14 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Brewers are 4-10 in their last 14 games following an off day.
Brewers are 3-8 in their last 11 playoff road games.
Brewers are 6-0 in Woodruff’s last 6 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance.
Brewers are 4-0 in Woodruff’s last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
Brewers are 7-0 in Woodruff’s last 7 starts vs. National League East.
Brewers are 5-0 in Woodruff’s last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Brewers are 7-0 in Woodruff’s last 7 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Brewers are 10-1 in Woodruff’s last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Brewers are 22-5 in Woodruff’s last 27 starts.
Brewers are 22-5 in Woodruff’s last 27 starts on grass.
Brewers are 4-1 in Woodruff’s last 5 Tuesday starts.
Brewers are 8-2 in Woodruff’s last 10 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Brewers are 6-2 in Woodruff’s last 8 road starts.
Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 games following a win.
Nationals are 8-0 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Nationals are 4-1 in their last 5 Tuesday games.
Nationals are 14-4 in their last 18 vs. National League Central.
Nationals are 7-2 in their last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Nationals are 10-3 in their last 13 games following an off day.
Nationals are 39-13 in their last 52 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Nationals are 28-11 in their last 39 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Nationals are 40-17 in their last 57 home games.
Nationals are 20-9 in their last 29 during game 1 of a series.
Nationals are 35-16 in their last 51 overall.
Nationals are 35-16 in their last 51 games on grass.
Nationals are 2-5 in their last 7 playoff games.
Nationals are 2-7 in their last 9 playoff home games.
Nationals are 5-1 in Scherzer’s last 6 Tuesday starts.
Nationals are 4-1 in Scherzer’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Nationals are 12-3 in Scherzer’s last 15 starts.
Nationals are 12-3 in Scherzer’s last 15 starts on grass.
Nationals are 6-2 in Scherzer’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Nationals are 6-2 in Scherzer’s last 8 home starts.
Nationals are 39-15 in Scherzer’s last 54 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Nationals are 2-5 in Scherzer’s last 7 starts vs. National League Central.
Nationals are 1-8 in Scherzer’s last 9 starts during game 1 of a series.
Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 Tuesday games.
Under is 3-0-1 in Brewers last 4 playoff road games.
Under is 10-1 in Brewers last 11 games following a loss.
Under is 4-1-1 in Brewers last 6 playoff games.
Under is 8-2-1 in Brewers last 11 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 3-1-1 in Brewers last 5 games following an off day.
Over is 5-2 in Brewers last 7 during game 1 of a series.
Under is 38-16-1 in Brewers last 55 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 7-3-1 in Brewers last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 16-7 in Brewers last 23 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 9-4-1 in Brewers last 14 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 23-11-2 in Brewers last 36 on grass.
Under is 23-11-2 in Brewers last 36 overall.
Over is 4-0 in Woodruff’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 5-0 in Woodruff’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 6-2 in Woodruff’s last 8 starts with 8 or more days of rest.
Over is 3-0-1 in Nationals last 4 on grass.
Over is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 3-0-1 in Nationals last 4 games following a win.
Over is 3-0-1 in Nationals last 4 home games.
Over is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 3-0-1 in Nationals last 4 overall.
Over is 3-0-1 in Nationals last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 6-2-1 in Nationals last 9 Tuesday games.
Over is 7-3-1 in Nationals last 11 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 9-4-1 in Nationals last 14 games following an off day.
Over is 5-0-1 in Scherzer’s last 6 Tuesday starts.
Under is 7-0 in Scherzer’s last 7 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Scherzer’s last 5 home starts.
Over is 3-1-2 in Scherzer’s last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
Under is 5-2 in Scherzer’s last 7 starts vs. National League Central.
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Washington.
Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
Brewers are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
