Atlanta (0-2) at Philadelphia (2-0)
When: Sunday, March 31st, 2019
Where: Citizens Bank Park,
Philadelphia, PA
Time: 7:05 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Philadelphia -150/9
The Philadelphia Phillies high hopes for a big 2019 season could not have gotten off to a better start and they aim for a three-game series sweep of last year’s NL East Champions, the Atlanta Braves on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. The Phillies have poured in 18 runs in taking the first two games of this series, as their offseason acquisitions of Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, and Andrew McCutchen have all homered. Lost in all the hoopla surrounding the new guys, is mainstays Rhys Hoskins and third baseman Maikel Franco are also off to hot starts, as the latter hit his second three-run bomb in two games on Saturday afternoon to give the Phillies the lead for good in the 8-6 triumph. The Braves pitching staff, which has been injury-plagued, is not off to a good start, especially the bullpen. Atlanta relievers have allowed 11 runs in just 7.2 innings through two games, while the staff has surrendered six homers and 11 walks. First baseman Freddie Freeman is 5-for-8 with two RBIs, but offseason acquisition Josh Donaldson is hitless in seven at-bats. Braves catcher Tyler Flowers went 2-for-3 with a run scored in his season debut Saturday.
Pitchers: Braves – Kyle Wright (0-0, 4.50 ERA) | Phillies – Jake Arrieta (10-11, 3.96)
For the first time since 1905, the Braves will send two rookies to the mound in the first three games, as Kyle Wright gets his first major-league start after making four relief appearances late last season. Wright was 8-9 with a 3.46 ERA in 27 games between Double-A Mississippi and Triple-A Gwinnett last season, then allowed three runs on four hits in six innings out of the bullpen for the big club.
Jake Arrieta gets the nod for Philadelphia in this one and is looking to regroup after a disastrous ending to 2018 in which he went 1-5 with a 6.35 ERA and 10 homers allowed in his last nine starts. Arrieta posted a 5.79 ERA and 1.36 WHIP across four spring-training starts, and went 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA in two starts last season against the Braves.
The first two games have gone over the total and I don’t see anything stopping this one from going over as well. The Phillies offense has a lot of confidence right now and the Braves should be able to get to an aging Arrieta.
Pick: OVER 9 -110
BETTING TRENDS:
Braves are 19-7 in their last 26 Sunday games.
Braves are 2-6 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Braves are 5-17 in their last 22 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 games following a loss.
Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Braves are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Braves are 1-7 in their last 8 overall.
Braves are 0-6 in their last 6 road games.
Braves are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. National League East.
Braves are 0-4 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Braves are 0-4 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League East.
Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 games on grass.
Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
Phillies are 14-3 in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 games following a win.
Phillies are 2-7 in their last 9 during game 3 of a series.
Phillies are 2-7 in their last 9 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Phillies are 6-21 in their last 27 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 Sunday games.
Phillies are 3-13 in their last 16 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Phillies are 1-4 in Arrieta’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Phillies are 1-4 in Arrieta’s last 5 Sunday starts.
Phillies are 0-4 in Arrieta’s last 4 starts.
Phillies are 0-4 in Arrieta’s last 4 starts on grass.
Over is 3-0-1 in Braves last 4 overall.
Over is 3-0-1 in Braves last 4 on grass.
Over is 5-1 in Braves last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 4-1-1 in Braves last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Braves last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 5-2-1 in Braves last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Over is 10-4-1 in Braves last 15 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 10-4 in Braves last 14 games following a loss.
Under is 9-4 in Braves last 13 road games.
Over is 5-0-1 in Phillies last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Over is 6-2-1 in Phillies last 9 Sunday games.
Under is 6-1 in Arrieta’s last 7 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Arrieta’s last 6 home starts.
Over is 4-1 in Arrieta’s last 5 starts vs. National League East.
Braves are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings in Philadelphia.
Braves are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings.
