Atlanta (0-0) at Philadelphia (0-0)
When: Thursday, March 28th, 2019
Where: Citizens Bank Park,
Philadelphia, PA
Time: 3:05 ET | TV: FS South, NBC 10
Opening Odds: Philadelphia -180/7.5
The Philadelphia Phillies won no more than 73 games between 2013-17, but things started to come together in 2018. Philadelphia was sitting at 63-48 and 1.5 games up in the National League East last summer, but completely fell apart, going 17-34 down the stretch and failing to finish above .500 for the first time since winning 102 in 2011. The team that past the Phillies and eventually won the division were the Atlanta Braves, who finished 10 games better than Philadelphia. The Braves begin their quest for a NL East repeat when they visit the new-look Phillies on Thursday afternoon. Atlanta did not do much in the offseason other than signing third baseman Josh Donaldson, as they are counting on their young talented core to carry them through October including NL Rookie of the Year Ronald Ronald Acuna, Jr. and All-Star second baseman Ozzie Albies. Atlanta bowed out in the NL Division Series last year in five games to the eventual NL champs Los Angeles Dodgers. The Phillies, meanwhile, made some big splashes early in the offseason with the acquisitions of OF Andrew McCutchen, 2B Jean Segura, and catcher J.T. Realmuto. If adding those All-Stars weren’t enough, the Phillies also landed Baseball’s prized free agent Bryce Harper to a 13-year, $330 million contract to complete a lineup that is comparable to the Yankees and Astros.
Pitchers: Braves – Julio Teheran (9-9, 3.94 ERA) | Phillies – Aaron Nola (17-6, 2.37)
With Braves ace Mike Foltynewicz out with an elbow injury, the Opening Day start will go to veteran Julio Teheran for the sixth consecutive season. Teheran has posted a solid 2.73 ERA in those previous five outings to start the season and finished with a 9-9 mark and 3.94 ERA in 2018. The 28-year old righty struck out 21 hitters with only two walks in 17 spring training innings and is 9-6 with a 3.65 ERA lifetime against the Phillies.
There’s no question who will be on the mound on Opening Day for the Phillies for the foreseeable future, as Aaron Nola is destined to become a Cy Young winner very soon. He finished third in the balloting last season by finishing second in the NL in ERA, third in WHIP (0.975) and fifth in strikeouts (224). Nola posted a 5.19 ERA in three starts during spring training, but owns more victories against the Braves than any other team, going 7-3 with a 2.09 ERA and a 1.022 WHIP in 12 career chances.
The atmosphere Thursday afternoon at Citizens Bank Park will be electric with the debut of several new Phillies and with their ace on the mound. Nola has been terrific in his career overall and against the Braves, while Harper is 18-for-40 with eight homers and 19 RBI versus Teheran.
Pick: Phillies -180
BETTING TRENDS:
Braves are 4-1 in their last 5 games following an off day.
Braves are 8-2 in their last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Braves are 11-3 in their last 14 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Braves are 6-2 in their last 8 during game 1 of a series.
Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. National League East.
Braves are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Braves are 1-5 in their last 6 overall.
Braves are 0-4 in their last 4 road games.
Braves are 5-2 in Teheran’s last 7 starts.
Braves are 5-2 in Teheran’s last 7 starts on grass.
Braves are 2-6 in Teheran’s last 8 Thursday starts.
Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
Phillies are 10-4 in their last 14 Thursday games.
Phillies are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. National League East.
Phillies are 2-5 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Phillies are 8-20 in their last 28 overall.
Phillies are 8-20 in their last 28 games on grass.
Phillies are 5-22 in their last 27 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Phillies are 4-1 in Nola’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
Phillies are 22-6 in Nola’s last 28 home starts.
Phillies are 12-4 in Nola’s last 16 starts vs. National League East.
Phillies are 21-8 in Nola’s last 29 starts.
Phillies are 21-8 in Nola’s last 29 starts on grass.
Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 road games.
Under is 5-1-1 in Braves last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Over is 5-1 in Braves last 6 games following an off day.
Over is 5-1 in Braves last 6 during game 1 of a series.
Under is 4-1-1 in Braves last 6 overall.
Under is 10-4 in Braves last 14 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 4-1 in Teheran’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
Over is 7-3-1 in Teheran’s last 11 Thursday starts.
Under is 11-5 in Teheran’s last 16 starts on grass.
Under is 11-5 in Teheran’s last 16 starts overall.
Over is 5-0 in Phillies last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Under is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Under is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 home games.
Under is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 vs. National League East.
Under is 19-5-3 in Nola’s last 27 starts vs. National League East.
Under is 32-14-5 in Nola’s last 51 starts on grass.
Under is 32-14-5 in Nola’s last 51 starts overall.
Under is 9-4-1 in Nola’s last 14 home starts.
Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Philadelphia.
Phillies are 5-1 in Nola’s last 6 home starts vs. Braves.
Braves are 5-1 in Teheran’s last 6 starts vs. Phillies.
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Braves are 6-2 in Teheran’s last 8 road starts vs. Phillies.
Braves are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
Under is 5-2 in Nola’s last 7 starts vs. Braves.
Under is 5-2-2 in Teheran’s last 9 road starts vs. Phillies.
Braves are 6-13 in the last 19 meetings in Philadelphia.
