Atlanta (88-68) at NY Mets (73-83)
When: Tuesday, September 25th 2018
Where: Citi Field,
Queens, New York
Time: 7:10 ET | TV: FS Southeast, SNY
Opening Odds: New York -161/7.5
The Atlanta Braves are coming off a four-game sweep of the Philadelphia Phillies over the weekend, that helped them claim the National League East and their first postseason appearance since 2013. Still, there is still something to play for in the final week of the season, as Atlanta trails the Chicago Cubs by 3.5 games for the best record in the NL, while leading the LA Dodgers by one game entering Monday’s action for second place, and home field in the NL Division Series. Atlanta will probably give some of their regulars time off during this six-game road trip to New York and Philadelphia, but a full lineup is expected the next two nights against Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom in preparation for facing tough pitching in the playoffs. First baseman Freddie Freeman, who entered Monday’s action leading the majors with 186 hits, is batting .387 with 12 RBIs in 16 games against the Mets this season. New York has been playing much better of late after a 5-21 June, going 34-28 since the All-Star break and have won 14 of 22 games in September. Outfielder Michael Conforto continued his hot hitting with two hits and three RBIs in Sunday’s 8-6 victory over Washington, and is batting .312 with seven homers and 25 RBIs in his past 19 games. The Braves are 12-4 against the Mets this season including 6-1 at Citi Field.
Pitchers: Braves – Touki Toussaint (2-1, 4.30 ERA) | Mets – Noah Syndergaard (12-4, 3.36)
Touki Toussaint is an up-and-coming star on this Braves staff and is a candidate to make the postseason roster. He will make his fifth start of the season and is coming off and eight strikeout, two run performance over 5.2 innings last Wednesday to beat St. Louis and snap Atlanta’s four-game losing streak. Toussaint gave up three runs in one inning of relief September 15th against Washington, but has posted a 3.27 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP in his four starts.
Noah Syndergaard has not pitched as well as Jacob deGrom, but has a much better record (12-4) to show for it. Syndergaard boasts a 1.27 WHIP while averaging 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings, and in the second half he has won seven of his 11 starts (7-3) with a 3.75 ERA. He is 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA in September and 0-1 in two starts against Atlanta this season with a 4.50 ERA.
I get the Mets being a big favorite here, but Atlanta has owned New York this season and have hit Syndergaard in two outings. The Braves are on a roll and they don’t want to let up yet.
Pick: Braves +132
BETTING TRENDS:
- Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 road games.
- Braves are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Braves are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 games on grass.
- Braves are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Braves are 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Braves are 18-6 in their last 24 games following a win.
- Braves are 5-2 in their last 7 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Braves are 5-2 in their last 7 Tuesday games.
- Braves are 38-16 in their last 54 vs. National League East.
- Braves are 9-4 in their last 13 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Braves are 37-17 in their last 54 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Mets are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Mets are 5-1 in their last 6 home games.
- Mets are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Mets are 13-3 in their last 16 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Mets are 5-2 in their last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Mets are 17-7 in their last 24 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Mets are 7-3 in their last 10 vs. National League East.
- Mets are 18-37 in their last 55 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Mets are 17-37 in their last 54 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Mets are 15-36 in their last 51 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Mets are 10-30 in their last 40 Tuesday games.
- Mets are 1-5 in their last 6 games following an off day.
- Mets are 1-5 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Mets are 0-5 in their last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Mets are 4-0 in Syndergaard’s last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Mets are 6-0 in Syndergaard’s last 6 home starts.
- Mets are 4-0 in Syndergaard’s last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Mets are 4-1 in Syndergaard’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Mets are 4-1 in Syndergaard’s last 5 Tuesday starts.
- Mets are 9-3 in Syndergaard’s last 12 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Mets are 2-5 in Syndergaard’s last 7 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Mets are 1-4 in Syndergaard’s last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 11-1 in Braves last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-1 in Braves last 7 games following an off day.
- Over is 5-1 in Braves last 6 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 17-4 in Braves last 21 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 8-2 in Braves last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 8-2 in Braves last 10 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 6-2 in Braves last 8 overall.
- Over is 6-2 in Braves last 8 on grass.
- Under is 8-3 in Braves last 11 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 10-4-1 in Braves last 15 road games.
- Over is 5-2 in Braves last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Toussaint’s last 4 starts on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Toussaint’s last 4 starts overall.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Mets last 5 games following an off day.
- Under is 5-0 in Mets last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Mets last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Under is 7-0 in Mets last 7 games following a win.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mets last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1 in Mets last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Mets last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Mets last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Mets last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 8-3-1 in Mets last 12 overall.
- Over is 8-3-1 in Mets last 12 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 8-3-1 in Mets last 12 on grass.
- Under is 8-3 in Mets last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Mets last 8 home games.
- Under is 6-1 in Syndergaard’s last 7 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 10-2-1 in Syndergaard’s last 13 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Syndergaard’s last 7 starts vs. National League East.
- Under is 4-1-2 in Syndergaard’s last 7 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 4-1 in Syndergaard’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 18-6-2 in Syndergaard’s last 26 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-2-1 in Syndergaard’s last 9 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 12-5-2 in Syndergaard’s last 19 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 7-3 in Syndergaard’s last 10 Tuesday starts.
- Braves are 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in New York.
- Braves are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
- Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in New York.
- Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
