Toronto (44-51) at Cleveland (48-45)
When: Friday, July 21st 2017
Where: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
Time: 7:10 ET | TV: Sportsnet, STO
Opening Odds: Cleveland -150/9.5
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The Cleveland Indians open a seven-game homestand when they battle the Toronto Blue Jays in another rematch of last year’s ALCS participants on Friday night at Progressive Field. The Indians are glad to be home after a dismal Bay Area road trip that saw them get swept in Oakland and drop two of three in San Francisco. Cleveland was outscored 17-6 against the A’s, then rebounded to take the opener against the Giants before losing the last two by one-run each. The Indians lead the Minnesota Twins by one-half game in the AL Central despite their recent skid. Michael Brantley is riding a five-game hitting streak, while teammate DH Edwin Encarnacion is just 2-for-18 in his last six games for the Tribe. Trevor Bauer looks to rebound from his shortest outing of the season when he takes the mound will oppose struggling Toronto right-hander Marco Estrada. The Blue Jays split four games with AL East-leading Boston after taking the finale 8-6 on Thursday as All-Star Justin Smoak continued his monster season with a pair of homers to push his total to 26. Smoak is 9-for-20 with six RBIs during his current five-game hitting streak and Kevin Pillar, who was rested on Thursday, has hit safely in four straight. Toronto 3B Josh Donaldson is hitting .333 with seven homers, 32 RBIs and 27 runs scored in 32 career games versus Cleveland.
Pitchers: Blue Jays – Marco Estrada (4-6, 5.33 ERA) | Indians – Trevor Bauer (7-8, 5.59)
As we mentioned above, Estrada has really been struggling. He has lost four straight decisions and has not made it through five innings in five of his last six outings. Estrada allowed four runs on five hits and four walks over 3.2 innings in a no-decision at Detroit on Sunday. Carlos Santana (3-for-5) and Brantley (2-for-3) have each homered against Estrada, who has a 3.75 ERA in two career starts versus Cleveland.
Bauer was even worse in his latest start, failing to record three outs Sunday at Oakland, allowing four runs on three hits and three walks while retiring just two batters. It was the second straight loss and third in four starts for Bauer, who has given up at least four runs in half of his 18 starts. Russell Martin is 3-for-6 with a homer versus Bauer, who gave up four runs on six hits over six innings to lose at Toronto on May 8th.
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I don’t trust either of these pitchers here. Toronto has been hitting the ball well lately, scoring four or more in four of the past five games, while the Indians offense should get back on track at home. Take the over.
Pick: Over 9.5 -115
W/L TRENDS
| Toronto |
- Blue Jays are 6-2 in their last 8 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Blue Jays are 8-3 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Blue Jays are 4-9 in their last 13 during game 1 of a series.
- Blue Jays are 3-10 in their last 13 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Blue Jays are 1-5 in their last 6 Friday games.
- Blue Jays are 1-10 in their last 11 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Blue Jays are 0-4 in their last 4 games following a win.
- Blue Jays are 9-3 in Estrada’s last 12 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Blue Jays are 2-6 in Estrada’s last 8 starts.
- Blue Jays are 0-4 in Estrada’s last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Blue Jays are 0-4 in Estrada’s last 4 starts vs. American League Central.
- Blue Jays are 0-4 in Estrada’s last 4 Friday starts.
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| Cleveland |
- Indians are 10-4 in their last 14 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Indians are 37-15 in their last 52 Friday games.
- Indians are 13-6 in their last 19 vs. American League East.
- Indians are 1-4 in their last 5 games following a loss.
- Indians are 1-6 in their last 7 overall.
- Indians are 1-6 in their last 7 games on grass.
- Indians are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Indians are 0-4 in their last 4 games following an off day.
- Indians are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Indians are 2-5 in Bauer’s last 7 starts.
- Indians are 2-5 in Bauer’s last 7 starts on grass.
- Indians are 3-9 in Bauer’s last 12 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Indians are 1-5 in Bauer’s last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Indians are 1-8 in Bauer’s last 9 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Indians are 0-4 in Bauer’s last 4 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance.
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OU TRENDS
| Toronto |
- Over is 3-0-1 in Blue Jays last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 8-1-2 in Blue Jays last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Blue Jays last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 games following a win.
- Over is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 7-3 in Blue Jays last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Under is 42-20-3 in Blue Jays last 65 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 21-10 in Blue Jays last 31 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 7-0 in Estrada’s last 7 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Estrada’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 11-2 in Estrada’s last 13 starts vs. American League Central.
- Over is 5-1 in Estrada’s last 6 starts overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Estrada’s last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
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| Cleveland |
- Over is 4-0 in Indians last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Indians last 4 games following a loss.
- Under is 8-2-1 in Indians last 11 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Indians last 5 overall.
- Under is 6-2-1 in Indians last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Indians last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Indians last 5 on grass.
- Under is 9-3-1 in Indians last 13 home games.
- Under is 12-4-3 in Indians last 19 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Indians last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 11-4-2 in Indians last 17 Friday games.
- Under is 30-11-4 in Indians last 45 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2-1 in Indians last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Indians last 8 vs. American League East.
- Under is 11-5-3 in Indians last 19 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Bauer’s last 7 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Under is 7-1 in Bauer’s last 8 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Bauer’s last 7 starts vs. American League East.
- Under is 4-1 in Bauer’s last 5 starts on grass.
- Under is 4-1 in Bauer’s last 5 starts overall.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Bauer’s last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 9-3-1 in Bauer’s last 13 Friday starts.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Bauer’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Bauer’s last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Bauer’s last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 7-3-1 in Bauer’s last 11 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
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HEAD TO HEAD
- Under is 4-0 in Bauer’s last 4 starts vs. Blue Jays.
- Under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings.
- Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Cleveland.
- Blue Jays are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in Cleveland.
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