Buffalo (10-6) at Houston (10-6)
When: Saturday, January 4th, 2020
Where: NRG Stadium,
Houston, TX
Time: 4:35 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: Houston -3/41.5
It seems like every year we start the NFL Playoffs with a Houston Texans home game and they will do so again this Saturday when they host the Buffalo Bills in an AFC Wild Card clash. The fourth-seeded Texans are small home favorites over the No. 5 Bills and are anticipating the return of defensive superstar JJ Watt this weekend. The three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year was put on injured reserve following a torn pectoral muscle suffered Oct. 27 and should give a spark to a poor Houston pass rush. The Texans won two of their final three games with the lone loss coming last week when there was nothing to play for and many starters sat out. The Bills also fell in a meaningless contest to the Jets last week after a hard-fought 24-17 loss at New England. Buffalo’s big win – and playoff-clinching victory – game in Week 15 when they won 17-10 at Pittsburgh. Technically, this is the first-ever playoff meeting between the Bills and Texans, although Buffalo did play the Houston Oilers (now the Tennessee Titans) in a very memorable in 1993. The Oilers led in Buffalo 35-3 early in the third quarter, but Bills backup quarterback Frank Reich – currently the coach of the Indianapolis Colts – led the biggest comeback in NFL history as the Bills won 41-38 in overtime. Neither of these franchises have won a Super Bowl and the Texans are one of four active franchises to never play in a Super Bowl, joining Detroit, Cleveland and Jacksonville. The Texans are 5-4 all-time vs. the Bills with Houston winning the most recent meeting 20-13 at home in Week 6 last year. The favorite is 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in the past five meetings, while the under has cashed in four of those five.
The Bills are in the postseason for the second time in three seasons after dropping a 10-3 decision at Jacksonville in the 2017 Wild Card round and have lost five playoff games in a row. Buffalo comes into this contest with the NFL’s No. 2 scoring defense (16.2) and the third-best defense overall (298.2). Pro Bowl cornerback Tre’Davious White (six INT) will get the task of trying to slow down Hopkins. Quarterback Josh Allen, who will be making his first playoff start, completed 58.8 percent of his passes this season with 20 touchdowns to nine interceptions. He is, however, one of the best rushing QBs in the league with 510 yards including nine rushing scores. Running back Devin Singletary is averaging 5.1 yards per carry that ranks fifth best in the NFL, while John Brown had 72 receptions and 1,060 yards.
Houston won the AFC South for the second year in a row during Week 16 and quarterback Deshaun Watson never took the field for the Texans in last week’s loss to the Tennessee Titans, nor did Pro Bowl receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Fellow wideout Will Fuller, one of the fastest players in the league, was out injured and is questionable for this one with a groin problem, but did practice this week. The Texans own an 8-3 record and have averaged 26.3 points in games in which Fuller has played this season, as opposed to a 2-3 mark with a 19.6 point average in contests that he has missed. Watt’s return should help a pass-rush that finished with only 31 sacks, tied for sixth-fewest in the NFL. Houston is 1-6 ATS in its past seven as a home favorite.
I really like this Bills team, but this is a tough spot for Allen in his first playoff game. Houston’s defense will be in the Buffalo backfield all afternoon and that will prove to be the difference.
Pick: Texans -2.5 (Wild Card Staff Free Picks)
Bills are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bills are 5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog.
Bills are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
Bills are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Bills are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.
Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Bills are 4-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Bills are 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.
Bills are 5-2-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
Bills are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in January.
Texans are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Texans are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss.
Texans are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Texans are 4-10 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in January.
Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
Texans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Texans are 0-2-2 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games.
Over is 5-0 in Bills last 5 Saturday games.
Under is 7-1 in Bills last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 6-1 in Bills last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Bills last 6 games overall.
Under is 5-1 in Bills last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 5-1 in Bills last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1 in Bills last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 4-1 in Bills last 5 games on fieldturf.
Under is 4-1 in Bills last 5 vs. AFC.
Under is 19-7 in Bills last 26 games as an underdog.
Under is 19-7 in Bills last 26 road games.
Over is 12-5 in Bills last 17 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 35-16 in Bills last 51 games as a road underdog.
Under is 6-1 in Texans last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Texans last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Under is 4-1 in Texans last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 4-1 in Texans last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 8-2 in Texans last 10 games as a home favorite.
Over is 7-2 in Texans last 9 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 7-2 in Texans last 9 games as a favorite.
Under is 20-6 in Texans last 26 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 12-4 in Texans last 16 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Over is 6-2 in Texans last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 21-10 in Texans last 31 vs. AFC.
Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
