Tennessee (9-7) at New England (12-4)
When: Saturday, January 4th, 2020
Where: Gillette Stadium,
Foxborough, MA
Time: 8:15 ET | TV: NBC
Opening Odds: New England -5.5/41.5
The second game Saturday in the NFL Playoffs has the New England Patriots in a very unusual spot when they take on the Tennessee Titans in an AFC Wild Card matchup. New England’s upset loss versus Miami last week gave the Kansas City Chiefs a first round bye, meaning the Patriots have to play on opening weekend for the first time since 2009. Since Tom Brady took over as New England’s starting quarterback early in the 2001 season, the Patriots have reached nine Super Bowls, however, they have never done so without a first-round bye. It’s Tennessee’s first trip to the playoffs since the 2017 campaign when they upset the Chiefs in Kansas City on Wild-Card Weekend but then were trounced at New England 35-14. The Titans edged out the Pittsburgh Steelers for the final wild card spot by beating a resting Houston Texans team in Week 17. The Patriots and Titans last played in the 2018 regular season with Tennessee beating visiting New England 34-10 behind quarterback Marcus Mariota, who is now the backup to Ryan Tannehill. The Patriots had won seven straight in the series (6-1 ATS) before Tennessee’s win in 2018, with an average margin of victory of 21 points. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings, while the over is 4-1 in the previous five in Foxborough.
Tennessee snapped a two-game losing streak with the 35-14 win over Houston last week and running back Derrick Henry was a beast with 211 yards and three touchdowns. Henry was able to overtake Cleveland’s Nick Chubb to win the league rushing yardage title. The Titans have been a vastly improved team since Tannehill took over as the starter for Mariota in Week 7. Tannehill threw for two scores last week and completed 70.3 percent of his passes on the season with 22 touchdowns to only six interceptions. The Titans are 6-0 this season when Henry rushes for at least 100 yards and his 16 rushing scores are second most in franchise history behind Earl Campbell’s 19 with the 1979 Houston Oilers. The Titans are 3-8 ATS in their past 11 games following a win by at least 14 points.
The Patriots were stunned as 17-point home favorites by the Miami Dolphins (27-24) the largest upset point-spread loss in Brady’s career. While the Patriots’ offense wasn’t as explosive as in year’s past, their defense was outstanding, allowing a league-low 275.9 yards a game and were tops in points allowed at 14.1. Brady surpassed 4,000 yards for the 11th time in his career, tied for fourth-best all-time and wide receiver Julian Edelman caught 100 passes for 1,117 yards. The Patriots are 3-3 in the postseason under Brady when they don’t have a bye and are 9-3 ATS in their past 12 as playoff favorites.
I know the Patriots are down this year, but how can you not take Belichick and Brady at home in a playoff game? Look for New England’s defense to have a dominant effort against the Titans’ offense.
Pick: Patriots -5 (Wild Card Staff Free Picks)
Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Titans are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC.
Titans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Titans are 16-37-1 ATS in their last 54 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Titans are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Titans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Titans are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Saturday games.
Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Patriots are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.
Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in January.
Patriots are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Patriots are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff games.
Patriots are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 playoff games as a favorite.
Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff home games.
Patriots are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Patriots are 48-22-1 ATS in their last 71 games following a straight up loss.
Patriots are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Patriots are 17-8-3 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Patriots are 42-20-3 ATS in their last 65 home games.
Patriots are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Patriots are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
Patriots are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC.
Patriots are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Patriots are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
Patriots are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite.
Patriots are 0-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-0 in Titans last 4 Wildcard games.
Over is 4-0 in Titans last 4 road games.
Over is 9-1 in Titans last 10 games overall.
Under is 7-1 in Titans last 8 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Over is 6-1 in Titans last 7 vs. AFC.
Over is 5-1 in Titans last 6 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Titans last 6 games following a straight up win.
Under is 5-1 in Titans last 6 playoff games.
Over is 5-1 in Titans last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 5-1 in Titans last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 4-1 in Titans last 5 games following a ATS win.
Under is 4-1 in Titans last 5 playoff road games.
Over is 6-2 in Titans last 8 games as an underdog.
Over is 3-1-1 in Titans last 5 Saturday games.
Over is 5-2 in Titans last 7 games on fieldturf.
Under is 9-4 in Titans last 13 games in January.
Over is 9-1-1 in Patriots last 11 Saturday games.
Over is 9-1 in Patriots last 10 playoff home games.
Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 vs. AFC.
Over is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games overall.
Over is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games as a favorite.
Over is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games on fieldturf.
Over is 11-3 in Patriots last 14 playoff games as a favorite.
Over is 11-3 in Patriots last 14 playoff games.
Under is 16-5 in Patriots last 21 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 18-7-1 in Patriots last 26 games in January.
Under is 20-8 in Patriots last 28 games following a ATS loss.
Titans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in New England.
Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in New England.
