Buffalo (10-4) at New England (11-3)
When: Saturday, December 21st, 2019
Where: Gillette Stadium,
Foxborough, MA
Time: 4:30 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: New England -6.5/38.5
The NFL set aside five games for the Week 16 Saturday schedule and have narrowed them down to the best three. One of those matchups takes place in Foxborough, as the New England Patriots can clinch yet another AFC East title with a win over the second place Buffalo Bills. Usually, Bill Belichick’s teams have wrapped up the division by now and are playing for the No. 1 seed, but the Bills have had an exceptional season and still have a chance at dethroning the Patriots. The only time New England hasn’t won the division since 2001 were in 2002, when they lost a tiebreaker to the Jets, and in 2008 when Brady suffered a season-ending injury in Week 1. Brady is 31-3 as a starting QB in his career against the Bills including a Week 4 win in Buffalo 16-10 – the Pats’ only single-digit win in starting 8-0. Buffalo has a strong pass defense that held Brady to just 18-for-39 passing for 150 yards with an interception. New England’s two TDs came in the first quarter via a short run from Brandon Bolden and an 11-yard blocked punt return. The Bills were ultimately done in by four turnovers. Josh Allen threw for just 153 yards and three picks before being knocked out of the game by Patriots defender Jonathan Jones. The Bills clinched a playoff spot and their first 10-win season since 1999 with a 17-10 triumph at Pittsburgh on Sunday night, while New England cruised to a 34-13 win at lowly Cincinnati. The Bills are 3-1-1 against the spread in their past five at Gillette Stadium.
Allen hit tight end Tyler Kroft on the go-ahead touchdown from 14 yards out with 7:55 to play, while also rushing for a score in the upset win over the Steelers last week. It was the fifth time this season the Bills rallied for a win and the defense held Pittsburgh to 229 total yards and just 50 on the ground. Tre’Davious White had two interceptions and is tied for the league lead with six for a unit that ranks third against the pass (190.5) and second in points allowed (15.9). The Bills are 7-0-1 ATS in their past eight on the road and will finish the season next week at home against the New York Jets.
Everyone was asking the same question all last week – when was the last time New England lost three games in a row? Well, it was 2002 and the team avoided that fate Sunday with an victory at to clinch a playoff spot. Brady threw two touchdown passes and now has 17 career seasons with at least 20 touchdown passes, breaking a tie for most with Peyton Manning. Stephon Gilmore, who has six interceptions on the season, had one of four Patriots takeaways Sunday, returning it 64 yards for a score. It was the fourth time this season that the Patriots picked off four passes in a game. The defense is just ahead of Buffalo with a league-best 12.9 points allowed per game. New England is 2-5 ATS in its past seven December games.
These teams are pretty evenly matched, especially on defense and the Patriots don’t have a huge edge on offense like years past. Buffalo is playing with a lot of confidence right now and should be able to keep this one within a score.
Pick: Bills +6.5 (More Week 16 Free Picks)
Bills are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bills are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Bills are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
Bills are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
Bills are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
Bills are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.
Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Bills are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC East.
Bills are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Bills are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Bills are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games.
Patriots are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Patriots are 27-10-1 ATS in their last 38 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Patriots are 20-8-2 ATS in their last 30 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Patriots are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Patriots are 42-19-2 ATS in their last 63 home games.
Patriots are 17-8-2 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Patriots are 42-20-1 ATS in their last 63 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Patriots are 48-23 ATS in their last 71 games overall.
Patriots are 37-18 ATS in their last 55 games following a ATS win.
Patriots are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games following a straight up win.
Patriots are 39-19-2 ATS in their last 60 games as a home favorite.
Patriots are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in December.
Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
Patriots are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-0 in Bills last 5 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 6-0 in Bills last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 6-0 in Bills last 6 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Bills last 4 games following a ATS win.
Under is 4-0 in Bills last 4 games following a straight up win.
Over is 4-0 in Bills last 4 Saturday games.
Under is 5-0 in Bills last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 7-0 in Bills last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 4-1 in Bills last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Bills last 5 games in December.
Under is 8-2 in Bills last 10 vs. AFC.
Under is 16-5 in Bills last 21 games on fieldturf.
Under is 20-7 in Bills last 27 road games.
Under is 20-8 in Bills last 28 games overall.
Under is 35-16 in Bills last 51 games as a road underdog.
Under is 37-18 in Bills last 55 games as an underdog.
Over is 8-1-1 in Patriots last 10 Saturday games.
Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 vs. AFC East.
Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 11-4 in Patriots last 15 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 11-4 in Patriots last 15 games in December.
Under is 8-3 in Patriots last 11 games as a home favorite.
Under is 8-3 in Patriots last 11 home games.
Under is 18-7 in Patriots last 25 games as a favorite.
Under is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 7-3 in Patriots last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 18-8 in Patriots last 26 games overall.
Road team is 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 meetings.
Bills are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in New England.
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in New England.
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
