Buffalo (9-7) at Jacksonville (10-6)
When: Sunday, January 7th 2018
Where: EverBank Field, Jacksonville, FL
Time: 1:05 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: Jacksonville -5.5/40
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Two teams who weren’t predicted by many to reach the postseason, will battle in an AFC Wild Card game on Sunday afternoon as the Buffalo Bills visit the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Field. The Bills’ appearance in this year’s playoffs is more of a surprise as they ended the distinction of holding the longest playoff drought in all four major sports at 19 years – that now falls on Baseball’s Seattle Mariners. Jacksonville, who are in the playoffs for the first time since 2007, went from worst to first in winning the AFC South and also contended for the top overall seed until a surprising loss at San Francisco in Week 16 ended that. Buffalo’s one-dimensional offense could be without star running back LeSean McCoy as it prepares to face a Jaguars defense that ranks among the league leaders in yards and points allowed, sacks and interceptions. The Jaguars are coached by Doug Marrone, who guided the Bills in 2013-14. Buffalo beat visiting Jacksonville 28-21 last season and lost to the Jaguars 34-31 in London in 2015. Jags’ quarterback Blake Bortles threw at least two TD passes in each of those meetings.
McCoy finished fourth in the NFL with 1,138 yards rushing, but sprained an ankle in last Sunday’s regular-season finale and was limited to stretching during Thursday’s practice. McCoy also had a team-best 59 receptions and his absence would place a huge burden on quarterback Tyrod Taylor, who is second on the team in rushing and is part of the NFL’s 31st-ranked passing attack at 176.6 yards per game. If McCoy can’t go, the other options are veteran Mike Tolbert or Marcus Murphy, who had one career rushing attempt prior to gaining 41 yards on seven carries last week. Linebacker Preston Brown made 144 tackles for a defense that ranked 29th against the run (124.6 yards) and 20th against the pass (230.5).
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Jacksonville’s success is contributed to a strong running game led by rookie Leonard Fournette and a tenacious defense that recorded 55 sacks and 21 interceptions while scoring an NFL-leading seven touchdowns. Fournette rushed for 1,040 yards and nine touchdowns despite missing three games and led the league with a 141.6 yards per game average to help take pressure off of Bortles, who completed a career-high 60.2% of his passes and had a career-low 13 interceptions. Five of those picks came over the last two games, but he could have leading receiver Marqise Lee (ankle) back in the lineup on Sunday. Pro Bowler Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue lead the pass rush with 14.5 and 12 sacks, respectively.
WILD CARD WEEKEND STAFF SELECTIONS
This is my Best Bet of the weekend. Jacksonville’s 10-6 record might not be eye-popping, but when it comes to the postseason, defense and a solid running game can take you far. This Buffalo offense is really bad and I don’t know if they can score 10 points in this one. The Bills are a nice story, but they have zero chance at winning this game.
Pick: Jaguars -8.5
- Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
- Bills are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Bills are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games in January.
- Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games.
- Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
- Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
- Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
- Jaguars are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Jaguars are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC.
- Jaguars are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Jaguars are 6-17-1 ATS in their last 24 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Jaguars are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Bills last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Bills last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 4-1 in Bills last 5 games on grass.
- Over is 6-2 in Bills last 8 games in January.
- Over is 5-2 in Bills last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 9-4 in Bills last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 5-0 in Jaguars last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 7-1 in Jaguars last 8 vs. AFC.
- Over is 5-1 in Jaguars last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Jaguars last 6 playoff games.
- Over is 10-4 in Jaguars last 14 home games.
- Over is 5-2 in Jaguars last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 7-3 in Jaguars last 10 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 11-5 in Jaguars last 16 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
- Bills are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Jacksonville.
- Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
- Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
