After the NBA All-Star Break, normal service has resumed. The competition is back in full force, with everything to play for. This is good news for NBA fans, who have much more top action to look forward to before the end of the season.
It’s also good news for sports bettors in the US, as the NBA is the second most popular sports league to bet on in the country after the NFL. According to data from the CRG Global for Variety Intelligence Platform, collected in October 2022, when people bet at casinos like those in this selection from wikihow.com, 54% of them will choose to bet on NBA games. For these bettors, there were plenty of indications in the first half of the season to hint at the trends that could shape the remainder of the 2023/24 NBA campaign.
There is no guaranteed formula for sports betting online, but knowledge of how the season will likely pan out, based on performances so far, is beneficial. In this article, we will look at our tips for trends to look out for in the remainder of the NBA season, those teams you should bet on, those not to bet on, and why current statistics favor Under bettors.
Teams to bet on
Based on our analysis of the season so far, we believe three teams are well worth betting on in the remaining games. We will look at why this is the case.
Boston Celtics
As of February 2024, the Celtics had a net differential of +10.1. The team has won 27 of its 30 home games. However, the Celtics are just 25-27-3 ATS, which indicates that the team allows opponents to achieve backdoor covers. So, a trend for the rest of the season is to bet on Boston to cover the first half of games as they have done so far.
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs are in second place in the Eastern Conference, helped by some impressive performances that resulted in a record of 18 wins out of 20 leading up to the All-Star break. This winning stretch was more memorable because Garland and Mobley both missed over 20 games through injury. Given the team’s record so far, a strong defense, and the closing skills of Donovan Mitchell, the Cavs are worth betting on to cover, especially if they have had more space between games than their opponent.
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder have been a safe bet all season. They have the advantage of MVP hopeful Shai Gilgeous-Alexander together with other youthful talents, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams. This trio’s combination of talent and exuberance makes the Thunder a good betting trend for the rest of the season, especially when they’re at a rest disadvantage when youth is more likely to be a factor.
Teams to bet against
While there is a positive trend to bet on some teams, it’s a good idea to wager against other teams for the remainder of the NBA season. We will explain why this is the case.
Milwaukee Bucks
This team does not fare well as underdogs. The Bucks have struggled against big-name competition. Put simply, right now, betting against the Bucks is the trend to follow when the opposition is the favorite. There is no sign of this changing any time soon.
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies lack flare, with Ja Morant sidelined following surgery on a shoulder injury. The player is out for the season, so the situation is unlikely to change. The injury came following a period of suspension, and Morant’s long absence from the team has been telling. The team is currently third from bottom in the Western Conference and is struggling to score points outside Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. What these facts add up to is that betting against the Grizzlies is a trend worth following until Morant returns next season.
Utah Jazz
A caveat to the trend for betting against the Utah Jazz is that this only applies when the team is on the road. Their cover margin away this season is the worst in the league. This is in stark contrast to the team’s stellar home cover margin. The Jazz will continue to be tested away from home when facing a difficult end to the season. So, it makes sense to follow the trend of betting against the team away from the Delta Center.
Under betting has been the way to go so far
Following the All-Star Break, there was a run of 12 games with a 50/50 split, with six games staying under and six going over. Since then, over 80% of games have been Unders. This is an incredible record. It’s also an indication of how things have been throughout the season. The Minnesota Timberwolves may be the only team to surrender less than 109 points per game, and all except three teams may have scored more than 110 points per game, but only 10 clubs have favored the Over bet this season.
These teams include Oklahoma, Chicago, Utah, Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Indiana. Teams that have consistently delivered Under results include the Nuggets, the Heat, the Knicks, the Clippers, and the Nets.
Recent lengthy Under runs have been seen from Detroit, Charlotte, Brooklyn, San Antonio, Milwaukee. New York, Philadelphia, Miami, Golden State, L.A. Clippers, Phoenix, and New Orleans. Meanwhile, the only teams that have been trending Over recently are Sacramento, Chicago, Oklahoma City, Toronto, and Memphis.
Clearly, the season has favored Under bettors so far. There is nothing to suggest that this trend will not continue.
In summary
The NBA season leading up to the All-Star Break has given us indications of trends that will dominate in the last part of the season. These trends include teams, such as the Celtics, the Cavaliers, and the Thunder, that have performed in a way that makes betting on them a good idea. Conversely, teams like the Bucks, the Grizzlies, and the Jazz have shown weaknesses that make betting against them a trend.
Outside of these trends, there is also evidence that Under bettors should continue in this manner. Analysis of season statistics so far shows that significantly more games have stayed under, and nothing suggests this trend will not continue.
There is no certain way to guarantee success in NBA betting. However, these trends can help guide potentially positive betting choices.
