Cincinnati (0-3) at Pittsburgh (0-3)
When: Monday, September 30, 2019
Where: Heinz Field,
Pittsburgh, PA
Time: 8:15 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Pittsburgh -3.5/43.5
The Week 4 NFL schedule concludes with an AFC North battle between a pair of 0-3 teams, making this a must-win situation for both the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers. While Cincinnati wasn’t expected to compete for a division title under first-year head coach Zac Taylor, the Steelers had higher expectations despite the loss of two key offensive weapons in the offseason. Pittsburgh was non-competitive in their Week 1 loss at New England, then lost future Hall of Fame quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was lost to a season-ending elbow injury in Week 2. Pittsburgh has simply dominated this rivalry in recent years, winning eight straight (including playoffs) and 11 of the past 12 against Cincinnati. Last year, the Steelers won the first meeting 28-21 on the road on a 31-yard TD pass from Roethlisberger to Antonio Brown with 10 seconds left. Pittsburgh won an ugly 16-13 contest in Week 17 in what was also the last game as Bengals coach for Marvin Lewis. The Steelers have covered 18 of the past 26 meetings and the total has gone under in five of the previous seven. Pittsburgh opened as 3.5-point favorites at most online shops and the line really hasn’t moved much since.
The Bengals have had issues stopping the run so far this season, allowing 168.7 rushing yards per game (31st) and have surrendered 27.7 points a game after Sunday’s 21-17 setback at Buffalo. The Bengals took a 17-14 lead with just under five minutes left but allowed the game-winning touchdown run with 1:50 to go then Andy Dalton was picked-off at the Buffalo 28 with 20 seconds left. Dalton threw for 249 yards with a touchdown and two picks and has thrown at least two scoring strikes in three straight meetings with Pittsburgh. Cincinnati also is dealing with a major injury after Pro Bowl wideout A.J. Green underwent ankle surgery during training camp, but Dalton entered Week 4 ranked second in the league with 979 passing yards. Tyler Boyd is the go-to right right now with a team-leading 24 receptions for 250 yards while former first-round pick John Ross is averaging 22.5 yards per catch. Joe Mixon has rushed for only 87 yards through three games after gaining 1,168 in 2018, which is why the Bengals rank dead last in rushing offense (41.7).
Mason Rudolph made his first career start last week, but the Steelers came up short in a 24-20 loss in San Francisco to fall to 0-3. The defense allowed the game-winning 5-yard touchdown pass with 1:15 to go and are 30th in the NFL in pass defense (302.7). Rudolph completed 14-of-27 for 174 yards with two touchdowns and an interception against the 49ers, but the ground game could do nothing to help him. James Conner, who ran for 12 touchdowns and nearly 1,000 yards last season, has been held to 97 yards overall while averaging 2.9 per carry. JuJu Smith-Schuster is the only threat at wide receiver with 14 receptions for 243 yards, while Connor is second on the team with 11 catches out of the backfield. The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday night contests.
The Bengals are simply a better team right now than Pittsburgh. The Steelers rank 29th on defense and 30th in offense. Yuck. At least the Bengals have been competitive in their games and could easily be 2-1. Look for Dalton to outplay Rudolph in the Bengals outright win.
Pick: Bengals +3.5 (More Week 4 Free Picks)
Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 4.
Bengals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Bengals are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC North.
Bengals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Bengals are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games in September.
Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Steelers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.
Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Steelers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
Steelers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games.
Steelers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 4.
Steelers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
Steelers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Steelers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in September.
Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Steelers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC.
Steelers are 0-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Steelers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 4-0-1 in Bengals last 5 road games.
Under is 3-0-1 in Bengals last 4 games on grass.
Under is 4-0-2 in Bengals last 6 vs. AFC.
Under is 4-0 in Bengals last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Under is 5-1-2 in Bengals last 8 games overall.
Under is 5-1-1 in Bengals last 7 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 7-2-1 in Bengals last 10 vs. AFC North.
Under is 3-1-2 in Bengals last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 6-2 in Bengals last 8 games in September.
Under is 15-7-2 in Bengals last 24 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 vs. AFC.
Under is 5-1 in Steelers last 6 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 5-1 in Steelers last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Steelers last 5 games on grass.
Under is 4-1 in Steelers last 5 vs. AFC North.
Over is 12-4 in Steelers last 16 home games.
Under is 8-3 in Steelers last 11 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 18-7 in Steelers last 25 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Steelers last 7 games overall.
Over is 5-2 in Steelers last 7 Monday games.
Over is 7-3 in Steelers last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 38-18 in Steelers last 56 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Pittsburgh.
Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
Bengals are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 meetings.
