Bears vs Packers Preview & Free Pick [November 29th 2020]

Chicago (5-5) at Green Bay (7-3)
When: Sunday, November 29th, 2020
Where: Lambeau Field,
Green Bay, WI
Time: 8:20 ET | TV: NBC
Opening Odds: Green Bay -7.5/46

One of the best rivalries in the NFL is renewed this Sunday night as the Chicago Bears visit the Green Bay Packers for the first of two meetings over the final six weeks. When the Bears take to Lambeau Field on Sunday, the will trot out Mitchell Trubisky as their starter for the second time this year, replacing an injured and ineffective Nick Foles, who suffered a hip pointer late in Chicago’s 19-13 loss to Minnesota back on Nov. 16. That was the Bears’ fourth straight loss after starting the season 5-1. Chicago’s offense needs some sort of spark, ranking last in rushing (78.2 yards), next-to-last in scoring (19.1) and 31st in total yards per game at 300.9. Chicago has managed 30 points just once this year – Sept. 27 at Atlanta – and during their four-game skid, are averaging just 15.8 points. Green Bay is coming off a tough loss last week in Indianapolis after wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s overtime fumble set up the Colts on a short field that they converted into a field goal that sealed a 34-31 win. Some Green Bay fans, unhappy with the big mistake, responded by sending death threats via social media. Despite the loss, the Packers are still atop the NFC North at 7-3, leading Chicago by two games.

Green Bay comes into this contest as almost 10-point favorites and have won 15 of the past 18 meetings since 2011. They have also covered the spread versus the Bears in 14 of the last 19 encounters. Past indications also reveal that defense prevails. There has been an average of 40 total points per game between these teams’ past 10 contests. The totals for this one is currently at a very low 43.5. Each of the last three meetings have gone under after a string of four straight overs. The rematch will take place during Week 17 on Jan. 3.

Trubisky started the season 3-0 before being benched in favor of Foles, who went 2-5 as a starter. Foles was averaging about 60 more passing yards per game than Trubisky, but the former also carries an 81.0 quarterback rating compared to Trubisky’s 87.4. Leading rusher David Montgomery is also re-entering the Bears’ lineup. Montgomery has cleared the concussion protocol after missing the Vikings game. The defense has been carrying this team most of the season and is in the top 10 in yards per play, yards per game, yards per pass attempt, red zone percentage, third down conversion rate, and more. They rank sixth in the NFL with 20.9 points allowed per game. Thus, the under is 3-0 in the Bears’ last three games on the road. Chicago’s lone touchdown against Minnesota was Cordarrelle Patterson’s 104-yard kickoff return to open the second half. The Bears managed only 149 yards and 10 first downs against the Vikings. Chicago will host Detroit next Sunday.

Aaron Rodgers is playing at an MVP level with 29 touchdowns, four interceptions, and nearly 3,000 yards through 10 games but it’s the defense that’s letting this club down from time to time. Wide receiver Devante Adams are running back Aaron Jones have been fantastic this season, with Adams averaging 105 receiving yards per game and Jones having a 4.7 yards per carry average. The two have combined for 18 scores. The Packers are averaging 30.8 points a game, but committed three turnovers in the loss to the Colts last week – a game in which they led 28-14. The Packers are 12th overall defensively, allowing 344.3 yards a game and 17th in points allowed at 25.8 per contest. Green Bay will host Philadelphia next Sunday afternoon.

The Bears were 3-0 to start the season with Trubisky under center and he could be the spark Chicago needs offensively. The Bears defense can create enough problems and turnovers to keep this rivalry game close.

Pick: Bears +9.5
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