Chicago (5-6) at Detroit (3-7-1)
When: Thursday, November 28th, 2019
Where: Ford Field,
Detroit, Michigan
Time: 12:30 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: Detroit -1.5/41
Just over a month ago, the NFC North was wide open with all four teams having a great shot at winning the division, including the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions. Fast forward to Thanksgiving Day and the Bears and Lions are playing out the string with both teams assured of missing the postseason. Detroit has hosted the first game on Thanksgiving for decades and nowadays it’s often the only time when this struggling franchise has a sellout crowd. They have followed a four-game winning streak on Thanksgiving with back-to-back losses including a 23-16 setback to these Bears last year as Chicago completed the season sweep. With starting QB Mitchell Trubisky out injured, Chase Daniel threw for 230 yards and two scores for the Bears. Eddie Jackson had the game-winning 41-yard interception return for a touchdown with around six minutes left. Matthew Stafford, who threw two interceptions for the Lions, remains out with fractured bones in his back, but could go Thursday. The Bears have won two of three including a 20-13 over Detroit in Week 10, but are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven overall. Trubisky had a rare good game in throwing three touchdown passes against the Lions, but the Bears were outgained 357-226. Stafford missed that one and Jeff Driskel threw for a touchdown and had an interception. The Bears are 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven meetings with the under going 6-2 in the previous eight.
The Bears kept their very slim playoff hopes alive Sunday with a 19-14 home win over a bad New York Giants team. Trubisky threw for 278 yards and a touchdown while also running for a score, but was intercepted twice. Wideout Allen Robinson had a season-high 131 yards receiving and a TD, but right tackle Bobby Massie suffered an ankle injury and will miss a few weeks. Khalil Mack had a strip-sack that would eventually lead to a touchdown for a Chicago team that ranks fourth in total defense (315.6) and fourth in points allowed (17.1). Starting linebacker Danny Trevathan was out with an ankle injury and isn’t likely for Thursday.
The Lions might be looking to replace second-year head coach Matt Patricia as the team has now lost seven of their last eight in another lost season. Detroit lost 19-16 at a Washington Redskins team that entered with one victory. Detroit led 16-13 with two minutes remaining and Driskel had a terrible interception with less than a minute left – his third pick of the day. Bo Scarbrough was a bright spot with 98 yards rushing on 18 carries for a Detroit rush offense that ranks 18th at 105.6 yards per contest. The defense is banged-up and it’s showing. The Lions rank near the bottom of almost every category including 30th against the pass and allow 26.5 points a game.
This is going to be an ugly game to watch, but it’s Thanksgiving and everyone will have it on while they feast on turkey. It’s rare to say, but the Bears actually have the quarterback edge in this one, unless Stafford is ready to go. Still, this Chicago defense won’t allow the Lions much and the Bears should be able to score at least 20 in this one – enough to win and cover.
Pick: Bears -2.5 (More Week 13 Free Picks)
Bears are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC North.
Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Bears are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win.
Bears are 11-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Bears are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games in Week 13.
Bears are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Thursday games.
Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Bears are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Lions are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 Thursday games.
Lions are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games.
Lions are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Lions are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC North.
Lions are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games on fieldturf.
Lions are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Lions are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
Lions are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
Under is 5-0 in Bears last 5 games in November.
Under is 4-0 in Bears last 4 vs. NFC.
Under is 6-0 in Bears last 6 vs. NFC North.
Under is 4-0 in Bears last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 4-0 in Bears last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 6-1 in Bears last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 6-1 in Bears last 7 games on fieldturf.
Under is 13-3 in Bears last 16 games overall.
Under is 4-1 in Bears last 5 Thursday games.
Under is 4-1 in Bears last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 14-4 in Bears last 18 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Under is 6-2 in Bears last 8 games following a straight up win.
Under is 5-2 in Bears last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Bears last 7 road games.
Over is 4-0 in Lions last 4 home games.
Over is 4-0 in Lions last 4 games on fieldturf.
Over is 6-0 in Lions last 6 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Lions last 6 vs. NFC North.
Over is 6-2 in Lions last 8 Thursday games.
Over is 20-7 in Lions last 27 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 8-3 in Lions last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Lions last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 5-2 in Lions last 7 games in Week 13.
Under is 7-3 in Lions last 10 games following a ATS loss.
Favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Bears are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
Home team is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
