Baylor (11-2) vs Georgia (11-2)
When: Wednesday, January 1st, 2020
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome,
New Orleans, LA
Time: 8:45 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Georgia -7.5/42
The Georgia Bulldogs are coming off another disappointing loss in the SEC Championship Game and hope to have a more spirited effort in their bowl game this time around. Georgia was outplayed in last year’s 28-21 Sugar Bowl loss to Texas and will get another Big 12 team in year’s edition. The Baylor Bears are bowling for the 9th time in the last 10 years, but this is their first appearance in New Orleans since 1956. Baylor knocked off Vanderbilt 45-38 in last year’s Texas Bowl and head coach Matt Rhule is 1-1 SU/ATS in bowls. Georgia is 4-6 SU all-time in the Sugar Bowl and 4-0 all-time versus Baylor. The Bears were confident heading into the season and reeled-off nine straight wins to begin the season after surviving triple overtime at TCU. The following week vs Oklahoma, the Bears led 31-10 at half, but couldn’t hold on and lost their 1st game. They won the last two regular season games to make it to the Big 12 Title game in a rematch with the Sooners, but once again lost after leading at the break. Georgia started the season 5-0, but quarterback Jake Fromm threw three interceptions in a 20-17 home loss to South Carolina. The Bulldogs won their next 6 games, including close wins over Florida, Auburn, and Texas A&M before losing to LSU in the SEC Championship Game.
Baylor’s defense has been one of the best in the country this season, ranking 16th nationally and tops in the Big 12 in scoring defense (19.3 points) while recovering 13 fumbles (third in FBS). Junior defensive lineman James Lynch was named to the Walter Camp All-America team after recording a school-record 12.5 sacks on the season, while junior safety Grayland Arnold leads the team with six interceptions. While Baylor ranks 16th in points allowed, they also rank 17th in points scored at 35.2 led by quarterback Charlie Brewer, who suffered a concussion in the Big 12 title game, but will be able to play Wednesday. Brewer passed for 2,950 yards and 20 touchdowns, and rushed for 10 more, while junior running back John Lovett (637 yards) and senior JaMycal Hasty (614 yards) lead the rushing attack.
The 37 points LSU scored in the SEC title game was the most Georgia allowed all season, but still ranked second nationally in points allowed (12.5 per game) and third in rushing defense (75.7 yards). The unit is led by senior defensive back J.R. Reed, who landed on the Walter Camp All-America team, and junior linebacker Monty Rice. The offense will be missing two starting offensive linemen in tackles Andrew Thomas and Isaiah Wilson, both of whom have declared for the NFL draft. Running back D’Andre Swift has rushed for 1,216 yards and seven touchdowns, but suffered a shoulder injury against Georgia Tech and was ineffective versus LSU. Fromm completed 60.3 percent of his passes for 2,610 yards and 22 touchdowns, but will be without two wideouts in Lawrence Cager and Dominick Blaylock.
Once again, motivation is in question for this Georgia team heading to a bowl game they’d rather not be in. Baylor has had a great turnaround and are more than excited to be here. The Bulldogs will be missing a lot of key pieces either due to injury or quitting the team to prepare of the NFL draft. I’ll take the points.
Pick: Baylor +5 (Jay Cooper’s Free Bowl Picks)
Betting Trends:
Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games as an underdog.
Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as an underdog.
Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
Bears are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games as an underdog.
Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 bowl games.
Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Bowl games.
Bears are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Bears are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games on fieldturf.
Bears are 35-17 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Bears are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games as a favorite.
Bulldogs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games.
Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Bulldogs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.
Bulldogs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 5-0 in Bears last 5 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Bears last 4 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 4-1 in Bears last 5 games following a ATS win.
Under is 4-1 in Bears last 5 neutral site games as an underdog.
Over is 4-1 in Bears last 5 bowl games.
Over is 4-1 in Bears last 5 Bowl games.
Under is 4-1 in Bears last 5 neutral site games.
Under is 6-2 in Bears last 8 games as an underdog.
Over is 11-4-1 in Bears last 16 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 23-9 in Bears last 32 non-conference games.
Under is 5-2 in Bears last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 6-0 in Bulldogs last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 3-0-2 in Bulldogs last 5 neutral site games.
Under is 7-1 in Bulldogs last 8 games overall.
Under is 7-1 in Bulldogs last 8 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 6-1 in Bulldogs last 7 games as a favorite.
Under is 4-1 in Bulldogs last 5 bowl games as a favorite.
Under is 4-1 in Bulldogs last 5 Bowl games.
Over is 3-1-1 in Bulldogs last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Under is 6-2-1 in Bulldogs last 9 neutral site games as a favorite.
Under is 5-2 in Bulldogs last 7 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
