Texas (7-5) vs Utah (11-2)
When: Tuesday, December 31st 2019
Where: Alamodome,
San Antonio, TX
Time: 7:30 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Utah -6.5/54
The Texas Longhorns had very high expectations coming into the season behind rising junior quarterback Sam Ehlinger, but things haven’t gone their way. Fast forward to New Year’s Eve and the Longhorns are in the middle of a bunch of coaching changes as they prepare to battle the Utah Utes in the Alamo Bowl. Texas came up just short in an early season matchup with now No. 1 LSU and wound up losing five games on the season including both to Big 12 Championship participants Baylor and Oklahoma. Defensive coordinator Todd Orlando was fired by Texas on December 1st and was replaced two weeks later by recently fired Rutgers head coach and ex-Ohio State co-defensive coordinator Chris Ash. There are also three offensive assistant positions to be filled with the reassignments of offensive coordinator Tim Beck and inside-receivers coach Corby Meekins and the firing of passing-game coordinator/receivers coach Drew Mehringer. Head coach Tom Herman is seeking his third bowl win in as many seasons, but will need to figure out how to slow down the Utes’ offense. Utah also had high expectations and were one win away from possibly going to the College Football Playoffs until they lost the Pac-12 Championship Game to Oregon. Running back Zack Moss, the Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year, is planning to play in the game, but All-Pac-12 first team defensive backs, safety Julian Blackmon (out with a knee injury) and cornerback Jaylon Johnson (NFL), will not be around.
The Longhorns has a lot of issues on the defensive side, ranking near the bottom of the country in yards allowed (446.2) and versus the pass (306.4). Safety Brandon Jones (team-most 86 tackles) leads a shaky unit that allows 28.9 points a game – three more than last season (25.9). The offense can keep up with Ehlinger ranking second in the Big 12 in both passing yards (288.5) and total offense (337.7 yards) and has accounted for 35 total TDs this season. Texas averages 35 points a game, which ranks 18th in the country and have a pretty decent run game behind sophomore Keaontay Ingram (745 yards, six TDs). Ehlinger’s favorite target is All-Big 12 first-team wide receiver and FBS receptions leader Devin Duvernay (103 receptions, 1,294 yards, eight scores). Texas went 2-4 ATS in their final six games.
While Texas’ defense has a lot of holes, the Utah unit is one of the best in the nation. The Utes held six opponents to seven points or less this season and rank fourth in points allowed (13.2). The unit, led by All-America end Bradlee Anae (12.5 sacks) – ranks first nationally against the run (70.3) and first overall (256.4), but surrendered season-highs in points (37), total yards (432) and rushing yards (239) by Oregon in the conference title game. Head coach Kyle Whittingham owns an .846 bowl win percentage (11-2), which is second in NCAA history. The offense ranks 34th nationally in yards (442.5) behind dual-threat quarterback Tyler Huntley (181.85 rating) and running back Zack Moss (113.3 yards per game). Tight end Brant Kuithe, who caught 31 passes for 572 yards and six touchdowns, is Huntley’s top target. The Utes covered the spread in seven straight games before losing to Oregon last time out.
This Utah defense is going to cause a lot of problems for Texas, who are still going through coaching changes. The Longhorns defense, meanwhile, can’t stop anyone and the Utes have a great 1-2 punch in Huntley and Moss. I’ll lay the points here.
Pick: Utah -7 (Jay Cooper’s Free Bowl Picks)
Betting Trends:
Utes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Big 12.
Utes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
Utes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite.
Utes are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Utes are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.
Utes are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 bowl games.
Utes are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 Bowl games.
Utes are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
Utes are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Utes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Utes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
Utes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
Utes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Longhorns are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games as an underdog.
Longhorns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Longhorns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Longhorns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Pac-12.
Longhorns are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.
Longhorns are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Longhorns are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games on grass.
Longhorns are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Longhorns are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
Under is 3-0-1 in Utes last 4 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
Over is 5-1 in Utes last 6 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Utes last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 4-1 in Utes last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 3-1-1 in Utes last 5 games overall.
Over is 3-1-1 in Utes last 5 games as a favorite.
Under is 5-2 in Utes last 7 games on grass.
Under is 5-2 in Utes last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-0 in Longhorns last 4 bowl games as an underdog.
Under is 4-0 in Longhorns last 4 bowl games.
Under is 6-0 in Longhorns last 6 games in December.
Under is 4-0 in Longhorns last 4 Bowl games.
Under is 5-1 in Longhorns last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Under is 5-1 in Longhorns last 6 neutral site games as an underdog.
Over is 4-1 in Longhorns last 5 non-conference games.
Under is 15-4 in Longhorns last 19 games on grass.
Under is 9-3 in Longhorns last 12 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 19-7-1 in Longhorns last 27 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 8-3 in Longhorns last 11 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Under is 37-14 in Longhorns last 51 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 21-8 in Longhorns last 29 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 17-7 in Longhorns last 24 games following a straight up win.
Under is 35-16-1 in Longhorns last 52 games as an underdog.
Under is 19-9 in Longhorns last 28 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 36-17 in Longhorns last 53 games following a ATS win.
