Houston (2-1) at Tampa Bay (1-2)
When: Tuesday, October 8th 2019
Where: Tropicana Field,
St Petersburg, FL
Time: 4:15 ET | TV: FS1
Opening Odds: Houston -250/8
The Tampa Bay Rays were the first team to successfully use relief pitchers from start to finish in games a few years ago and it has worked out, earning them a postseason berth in 2019. They will employ that strategy on Tuesday in hopes of staying alive in their American League Division Series with the Houston Astros when they host Game 4 at Tropicana Field. Tampa Bay’s offense finally exploded on Monday when they tagged Astros’ starter Zack Greinke in the 10-3 triumph, but now must face probably the most feared big-game pitcher in baseball – Justin Verlander. The Rays received a dominant performance from former Astro Charlie Morton in Game 3 and he could be available in relief in a possible Game 5 back in Houston on Thursday. Shortstop Willy Adames went 3-for-3 and hit one of Tampa’s four home runs in the Game 3 win, while Morton limited Houston to three hits and one run over five innings and struck out nine. Jose Altuve homered in the first inning and has two double and two dingers in the series. Diego Castillo will serve as the Rays’ opener on Tuesday.
Pitchers: Astros – Justin Verlander (1-0, 0.00 ERA) | Rays – Diego Castillo (0-0, 0.00)
Do we really have to say how good Verlander is and has been in the postseason? After allowing just one hit in seven scoreless Game 1 innings, the future Hall-of-Famer is now 8-0 with a 2.14 ERA in 12 games (11 starts) in the division series round, and 14-7 with a 3.05 mark in his postseason career. Verlander is 6-3 with a 2.87 ERA in 10 career starts in St. Petersburg.
Castillo wasn’t terrific in his six stints as the opener during the regular season, posting a 6.15 ERA, compared to 3.08 in his 59 relief appearances. He’s logged 3.2 innings of scoreless innings during two outings this postseason. Potential relievers after Castillo in Game 4 could be Game starter Tyler Glasnow, Game 2 starter Blake Snell and lefty Ryan Yarbrough.
I don’t have faith in the Rays staff in this particular game Tuesday. They’ve been successful with these bullpen games, but how is the offense going to generate enough runs against Verlander? They’re not. Astros will roll here.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free MLB Picks page for Tuesday. He finished 135-95 +2686 units in the regular season!
Pick: Astros -1.5 -145
BETTING TRENDS:
Astros are 8-1 in their last 9 during game 4 of a series.
Astros are 6-1 in their last 7 Divisional Playoff games.
Astros are 8-2 in their last 10 road games.
Astros are 8-2 in their last 10 games following a loss.
Astros are 6-2 in their last 8 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Astros are 6-2 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Astros are 50-19 in their last 69 overall.
Astros are 9-4 in their last 13 vs. American League East.
Astros are 42-20 in their last 62 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Astros are 35-17 in their last 52 Tuesday games.
Astros are 2-5 in their last 7 playoff games.
Astros are 2-5 in their last 7 games on astroturf.
Astros are 2-5 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Astros are 2-5 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Astros are 11-2 in Verlander’s last 13 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Astros are 4-1 in Verlander’s last 5 starts during game 4 of a series.
Astros are 4-1 in Verlander’s last 5 starts vs. American League East.
Astros are 4-1 in Verlander’s last 5 Tuesday starts.
Astros are 23-6 in Verlander’s last 29 road starts.
Astros are 11-3 in Verlander’s last 14 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Astros are 7-2 in Verlander’s last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Astros are 9-3 in Verlander’s last 12 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Astros are 23-9 in Verlander’s last 32 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Astros are 36-15 in Verlander’s last 51 starts.
Rays are 10-1 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Rays are 7-2 in their last 9 during game 4 of a series.
Rays are 22-7 in their last 29 home games.
Rays are 18-6 in their last 24 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Rays are 19-7 in their last 26 games on astroturf.
Rays are 22-10 in their last 32 overall.
Rays are 35-16 in their last 51 games following a win.
Rays are 24-11 in their last 35 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Rays are 50-23 in their last 73 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Rays are 2-6 in their last 8 Divisional Playoff home games.
Rays are 2-6 in their last 8 playoff home games.
Rays are 2-8 in their last 10 Divisional Playoff games.
Rays are 7-1 in Castillo’s last 8 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Rays are 7-2 in Castillo’s last 9 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Rays are 7-2 in Castillo’s last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Rays are 13-4 in Castillo’s last 17 starts.
Rays are 12-4 in Castillo’s last 16 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance.
Rays are 8-3 in Castillo’s last 11 starts on astroturf.
Over is 4-0 in Astros last 4 playoff road games.
Under is 12-2-3 in Astros last 17 on astroturf.
Over is 5-1 in Astros last 6 Divisional Playoff road games.
Under is 4-1 in Astros last 5 games following a loss.
Over is 4-1 in Astros last 5 overall.
Over is 8-2-1 in Astros last 11 vs. American League East.
Over is 7-2 in Astros last 9 playoff games.
Under is 8-3-1 in Astros last 12 Tuesday games.
Over is 21-8 in Astros last 29 Divisional Playoff games.
Under is 5-2-1 in Astros last 8 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 9-4-1 in Astros last 14 road games.
Over is 9-4 in Astros last 13 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 4-1 in Verlander’s last 5 Tuesday starts.
Over is 4-1 in Verlander’s last 5 starts during game 4 of a series.
Over is 4-1 in Verlander’s last 5 starts vs. American League East.
Under is 12-4 in Verlander’s last 16 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 13-5 in Verlander’s last 18 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 17-8 in Verlander’s last 25 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Over is 5-1-1 in Rays last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 10-2 in Rays last 12 playoff home games.
Under is 4-1 in Rays last 5 Tuesday games.
Under is 4-1 in Rays last 5 games following a win.
Under is 7-2 in Rays last 9 Divisional Playoff home games.
Over is 3-1-1 in Rays last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 19-7-4 in Rays last 30 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 5-2-1 in Rays last 8 home games.
Over is 5-2 in Rays last 7 Divisional Playoff games.
Over is 12-5 in Rays last 17 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Over is 7-3 in Rays last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 11-5 in Rays last 16 vs. American League West.
Over is 7-1 in Castillo’s last 8 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 13-3 in Castillo’s last 16 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance.
Over is 13-3 in Castillo’s last 16 starts overall.
Over is 4-1 in Castillo’s last 5 home starts.
Over is 7-2 in Castillo’s last 9 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 6-2 in Castillo’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 8-3 in Castillo’s last 11 starts on astroturf.
Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
Under is 21-5-2 in the last 28 meetings in Tampa Bay.
Astros are 6-18 in the last 24 meetings in Tampa Bay.
