Houston (67-40) at Seattle (62-43)
When: Monday, July 30th 2018
Where: Safeco Field, Seattle, WA
Time: 10:10 ET | TV: AT&T SportsNet Southwest,
ROOT Northwest
Opening Odds: Houston -116/7.5
The Houston Astros have cooled off since the All-Star Break, but the Seattle Mariners can’t seem to take advantage. They will get their chance at Houston face-to-face when they begin a three-game series at Safeco Field on Monday as ace James Paxton goes up against two-time All-Star Gerrit Cole. While Houston was being swept over the weekend by last-place Texas, the Mariners avoided a sweep against the Los Angeles Angels by winning the finale on Sunday to get to within four games in the American League West. Houston pitchers recorded a franchise-best 19 strikeouts on Sunday but the offense went 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position and the top five hitters in the lineup combined to go 1-for-19 in the 4-3 setback. The Astros have lost four-straight and have only scored two or three runs in each one. The Mariners, who scored seven first-inning runs and held on for an 8-5 win over the Angels on Sunday, will play 10 of their next 23 games against the Astros as they attempt to narrow the gap in the division and stay clear of the Oakland A’s. Astros first baseman Tyler White, who was recalled when Jose Altuve was placed on the DL on Saturday, went 3-for-3 in Sunday’s setback.
Pitchers: Astros – Gerrit Cole (10-2, 2.54 ERA) | Mariners – James Paxton (8-4, 3.70)
Strikeout machine Cole is up to 186 Ks on the season – 10 shy of matching his 2017 total in 33 starts – and is fourth behind Chris Sale (207) Trevor Bauer (192) and teammate Justin Verlander (190). He’s coming off a no-decision at Colorado on Tuesday despite allowing two runs and striking out nine over 6.1 innings. Cole did not allow an earned run at Seattle back on April 18th and scattered five hits over seven innings to earn a win.
Paxton will make his first start since July 12th after recovering from inflammation in his lower back. He was scheduled to come off last week, but was scratched prior to game time. Paxton lasted just two-thirds of an inning before being lifted from that July 12th outing at Colorado. He won his first two starts against Houston this season, allowing a total of two runs in 13.2 innings while striking out 13.
I don’t like the way Houston is playing right now, but they did destroy Seattle in their first trip to Safeco this season. Paxton’s injury worries me and I think Houston will take advantage and finally get some offense going this week. I’ll take them in the opener.
Pick: Astros -110
BETTING TRENDS:
- Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Astros are 7-2 in their last 9 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Astros are 5-2 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Astros are 39-17 in their last 56 vs. American League West.
- Astros are 36-16 in their last 52 road games.
- Astros are 39-18 in their last 57 during game 1 of a series.
- Astros are 45-21 in their last 66 games on grass.
- Astros are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Astros are 1-4 in their last 5 overall.
- Mariners are 4-0 in their last 4 Monday games.
- Mariners are 25-9 in their last 34 home games.
- Mariners are 5-2 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Mariners are 3-8 in their last 11 overall.
- Mariners are 3-8 in their last 11 games on grass.
- Mariners are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. American League West.
- Mariners are 1-5 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.
- Mariners are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Mariners are 5-0 in Paxton’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Mariners are 5-1 in Paxton’s last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Mariners are 11-5 in Paxton’s last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Mariners are 1-4 in Paxton’s last 5 starts with 17 or more days of rest.
- Under is 8-1-2 in Astros last 11 road games.
- Over is 10-3-1 in Astros last 14 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Astros last 5 overall.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Astros last 5 on grass.
- Under is 9-3-1 in Astros last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 6-2 in Astros last 8 vs. American League West.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Astros last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Astros last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 27-10-1 in Astros last 38 Monday games.
- Over is 13-5-2 in Astros last 20 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 33-16-2 in Astros last 51 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Mariners last 4 Monday games.
- Under is 4-1 in Mariners last 5 home games.
- Under is 7-2 in Mariners last 9 overall.
- Under is 7-2 in Mariners last 9 on grass.
- Over is 6-2-1 in Mariners last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 6-2-1 in Mariners last 9 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 5-0 in Paxton’s last 5 Monday starts.
- Under is 4-1 in Paxton’s last 5 starts on grass.
- Under is 4-1 in Paxton’s last 5 starts overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Paxton’s last 5 starts vs. American League West.
- Under is 10-3 in Paxton’s last 13 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Paxton’s last 5 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance.
- Under is 5-2 in Paxton’s last 7 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 10-4 in Paxton’s last 14 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
- Astros are 8-1 in the last 9 meetings in Seattle.
- Mariners are 4-1 in Paxton’s last 5 starts vs. Astros.
- Under is 4-1 in Paxton’s last 5 starts vs. Astros.
- Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Seattle.
- Astros are 27-11 in the last 38 meetings.
