Akron (5-4, 4-1) at Miami OH (3-6, 2-3)
When: Tuesday, November 7th 2017
Where: Fred Yager Stadium, Oxford, OH
Time: 7:30 ET | TV: ESPN2
Opening Odds: Miami OH -4/52
Open an Account at Bovada Sportsbook Now! Sign up at Bovada.lv to get a $250 Signup Bonus to bet NCAA Football odds and props!
If the Miami Redhawks want to get back to a Bowl game for the second consecutive season, they’ll have to win their last three games of the regular season and that starts Tuesday night at home against the Akron Zips. Miami has dropped four of their last five games including a 45-28 setback at Ohio on Halloween night. Akron on the other hand, has won four of their past five and are only a win away from a Bowl berth, a year after they missed out with five wins. Four of Miami’s six losses this season have come by eight or fewer points, while each of the three wins (FCS opponent Austin Peay, CMU, Buffalo) have been by double digits. Miami leads the all-time series 16-9-1, but the Zips have won the last four meetings, and the road team has covered the spread in four of the last five. The last time Miami beat Akron in Oxford was in 2011, a 35-3 victory over the Zips.
By looking at Akron’s team stats, you wouldn’t think they’re a 5-4 team overall and 4-1 in MAC play. Out of 130 FBS schools, the Zips rank 117th in total offense (331.1) and 107th in defense (444.2). In three of their four losses, Akron has allowed 52, 41, and 48 points. Quarterback Thomas Woodson completes only 58.3% of his passes and has thrown an interception in seven of this nine games. Woodson was efficient, however, last week in the Zips’ 21-20 win over Buffalo, completing 21-of-29 for 286 yards and three scores. The rushing game, which ranks 119th in the country, was held to 81 yards on 25 carries against the Bulls. Akron’s defense gives up a ton of yards, but has been very opportunistic with 11 interceptions to rank second in the conference and 21st nationally. They also lead the conference with three defensive touchdowns.
[ad id=’37018′]
Miami’s statistical rankings are much better than Akron’s, especially on defense, were they rate as the 39th best overall in the country at 365.9 yards a game allowed. The big question tonight is who will taking snaps under center. Gus Ragland opened the season as the starter and has been steady (12 TDs, 4 INTs), but has completed only 53.3% of his passes. He got hurt a month ago against Bowling Green and was replaced by fellow junior Billy Bahl, who struggled in a bad loss to Kent State, but came back and help beat Buffalo, and then put up big numbers (350 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs) in last week’s loss to Ohio. Ragland dressed last week, but he didn’t see the field. Bahl is listed as the starter for Tuesday night on the depth chart, but that doesn’t mean Ragland won’t return. If Miami can pull off this win tonight, they have two winnable games remaining to become Bowl-eligible.
THIS WEEK’S TOP 25 PREDICTIONS
Don’t be fooled by the records here. Miami may be just as good as Akron and they’re playing at home. I still like the way the Zips have improved over the last month and I’m willing to take a chance with the points here.
Pick: Akron +6.5
TRENDS:
- Zips are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Zips are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
- Zips are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- Zips are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Zips are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Zips are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Zips are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Tuesday games.
- Zips are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
- Zips are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Redhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Redhawks are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Redhawks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Redhawks are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games in November.
- Redhawks are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Redhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
- Redhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Redhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Redhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Redhawks are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games.
- Under is 6-0 in Zips last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Zips last 4 games in November.
- Under is 6-0 in Zips last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Zips last 4 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 8-1 in Zips last 9 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 7-1 in Zips last 8 road games.
- Under is 6-1 in Zips last 7 Tuesday games.
- Under is 6-1 in Zips last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 6-1 in Zips last 7 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 6-1 in Zips last 7 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 39-16 in Zips last 55 conference games.
- Under is 46-19 in Zips last 65 games overall.
- Under is 39-19 in Zips last 58 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 6-1 in Redhawks last 7 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Redhawks last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 8-2 in Redhawks last 10 home games.
- Under is 11-3 in Redhawks last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 16-5 in Redhawks last 21 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 47-20 in Redhawks last 67 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 38-17 in Redhawks last 55 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
- Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.
