Akron (7-6) at Florida Atlantic (10-3)
When: Tuesday, December 19th 2017
Where: FAU Football Stadium, Boca Raton, FL
Time: 7:00 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Florida Atlantic -16.5/61.5
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The Florida Atlantic Owls won’t have to travel at all for their first Bowl game since 2008 when they will basically host the Boca Raton Bowl from their own stadium on Tuesday night, December 19th. The Owls, who are led by head coach Lane Kiffin, tested themselves early with a tough non-conference schedule that included losses to Navy and Wisconsin, but went a perfect 8-0 in Conference USA action before winning the league title over North Texas 41-17. Florida Atlantic has a dynamic offense led by one of the nation’s top running backs in league MVP Devin Singletary, and an efficient passing game engineered by Jason Driskel. The Owls finished 3-9 in each of the previous three seasons before turning things around under Kiffin, the former coach at Tennessee and USC, as well as of the NFL’s Oakland Raiders. Akron won the MAC East with a 6-2 mark, but lost to Toledo 45-28 in the conference championship game – a contest that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated. Akron will be bowling for the second time in three seasons. The Zips lost to Penn State and Iowa State by a combined 93-14 margin early this season but stabilized things in the conference under sixth-year coach Terry Bowden. Akron used three quarterbacks against Toledo and it remains to be seen if senior Thomas Woodson, junior Robbie Kelley or freshman Kato Nelson will get the start in Boca Raton.
The Zips are not only searching for a more consistent passing attack, they could use a better running game heading into the Boca Raton Bowl, as they average just 3.3 yards per carry and didn’t have a single player gain 400 during the season. Woodson saw most of the action at quarterback in 2017 and has thrown 14 touchdowns against nine interceptions, while Nelson has an 8-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, although he is completing less than 50% of his passes. The defense allowed 93 points in two meetings with Toledo but is allowing just 22.6 points per game against everyone else. Akron is 82nd in the country against the pass (235.6), which is bad news when facing this Florida Atlantic offense.
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The Owls haven’t tasted defeat since being upset at Buffalo in late September, winning nine straight games – eight by double digits – behind an offense that ranks ninth in the country at 39.8 points a game. They have not been held below 30 points since Week 2 against Wisconsin, which enters bowl season with the third-best scoring defense in the country. Driskel has thrown 13 touchdown passes and only four interceptions, while Singletary has eclipsed 100 yards on the ground in 11 straight games and has totals of 1,796 yards – fourth nationally – and 29 rushing touchdowns, which is eight more than any other player in Division I. The Owls lost one home game – the season opener against Navy 42-19.
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This Bowl game has the biggest point spread of any of them. Florida Atlantic opened at -16.5 and has been bet up to the current 22.5. There’s no way Akron can win this game, but I’m taking the points. This is one of my least favorite games this Bowl season and it wouldn’t shock me if the Owls won by 40. You can see all of our Bowl picks right here.
Pick: Akron +22.5
TRENDS:
- Zips are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
- Zips are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Zips are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Zips are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games.
- Zips are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Zips are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
- Zips are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
- Zips are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
- Zips are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Zips are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
- Owls are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Owls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
- Owls are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Owls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
- Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Owls are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
- Owls are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.
- Owls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Owls are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
- Under is 4-0 in Zips last 4 non-conference games.
- Under is 7-0 in Zips last 7 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Zips last 5 games on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Zips last 4 vs. CUSA.
- Under is 5-1 in Zips last 6 Tuesday games.
- Under is 13-3 in Zips last 16 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Under is 8-2 in Zips last 10 road games.
- Under is 8-2 in Zips last 10 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 16-5 in Zips last 21 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 16-5 in Zips last 21 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 9-3 in Zips last 12 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 26-10 in Zips last 36 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 12-5 in Zips last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 7-3 in Zips last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 48-21 in Zips last 69 games overall.
- Under is 6-0 in Owls last 6 games in December.
- Over is 6-1 in Owls last 7 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Owls last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Over is 8-3 in Owls last 11 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 21-8 in Owls last 29 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Owls last 7 home games.
- Under is 5-2 in Owls last 7 games on grass.
- Over is 5-2 in Owls last 7 games following a ATS win.
