The Chiefs still lead the AFC betting race, but rivals like Buffalo, Baltimore and Indianapolis are closing fast.
The AFC picture has finally settled enough to tell you who’s for real and who’s just keeping up appearances. Kansas City still top the board, but only just. Buffalo’s defense has found its bite again, Baltimore look complete on both sides of the ball, Indianapolis keep cashing in on efficiency and Denver have turned a poor start into a six-game heater. What was once a one-team race now looks like a crowded finish line.
Kansas City Still Lead, but It’s Getting Harder Every Week
Kansas City began the season around +200 to win the AFC. You now find them closer to +275, and there’s good reason. Their defense has been outstanding, holding opponents under 20 points per game, but the offense has lost the quick-strike feel that defined past seasons. Mahomes has been pressured on roughly a third of his dropbacks, his highest rate since his first MVP year, and the passing game is relying on short completions to stay on schedule.
It’s not panic time, but you can see why the markets have cooled slightly. Kansas City have covered only half their spreads this season and sit near the middle of the league in red-zone scoring percentage. That’s a reminder that even the best team can look beatable when margins shrink. If the Chiefs rediscover their deep-ball rhythm, that +275 will tighten fast, but right now they’re winning more through control than dominance.
Buffalo and Baltimore Are Closing the Distance
Buffalo’s revival has been one of the clearest midseason stories. The Bills are trading around +300, nearly level with Kansas City, after pulling their defensive numbers back into elite territory. They ranked outside the top twenty in expected points allowed after Week 5 but have since climbed near the top five. Their pressure rate has risen to roughly one in every three opponent dropbacks, and Josh Allen has thrown only two interceptions in his last five games. When Buffalo control tempo and limit giveaways, they look like a team built for January. This also explains why they continue to be favorites in weekly NFL picks.
Baltimore remain one of the smartest bets on the board near +800. Lamar Jackson is completing passes at one of his best career clips, and the Ravens’ defense is forcing punts on about half of opposing possessions, the best mark in the conference. That combination makes them dangerous in low-scoring playoff games. Their final stretch features only two current winning teams, giving them space to build momentum before the postseason.
Indianapolis Keep Proving the Metrics Right
Indianapolis were listed near +900 before the season started. They now hover around +500 and continue to look like the value play of the group. The Colts rank among the league’s top five in rushing success rate and offensive line win percentage, while their defense has held opponents below 20 points per game since mid-October. Jonathan Taylor’s workload has steadied, and their efficiency on early downs allows them to control pace in ways that keep them competitive against higher-profile teams.
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Mid-Pack Contenders Who Can Still Crash the Party
Denver’s transformation from early-season chaos to relevance has been striking. At roughly +700, they’re now part of every serious AFC discussion. The Broncos have forced turnovers on about one in seven opponent drives during their win streak, one of the best rates in the league. That defensive surge has covered for an offense averaging just over seven yards per pass attempt. Their point differential of +55 during this run ranks among the smaller margins for six-game streaks in the past two decades, which tells you how finely they’re walking the line.
Pittsburgh, priced around +2500, are built the opposite way. Their offense is still searching for rhythm, but they sit top ten in sacks and takeaways and have turned field position into a weapon. New England, sitting near +1100, have also shown growth under rookie quarterback Drake Maye. He has seven touchdown passes to one interception over his last four outings, and the Patriots’ turnover margin has gone from one of the league’s worst in September to even through Week 9. They’re not flawless, but they’re improving in the right areas for late-season betting value.
What Matters Most Down the Stretch
The final eight weeks will test every contender differently. Kansas City’s defense provides a safety net, but their offense must rediscover big-play consistency. Buffalo’s pass rush and Baltimore’s balance make them genuine threats to close the gap, while Indianapolis remain the data-driven value pick if they keep controlling the ground game. Denver’s confidence makes them dangerous, though they still lean on turnovers to stay ahead.
The spread between first and fifth is the narrowest in five seasons, showing how small the margins have become. In late-season football, protecting the ball and sustaining drives usually separates contenders from pretenders.
