Philadelphia (0-0) at Miami (0-0)
When: Monday, May 2nd, 2022
Where: FTX Arena,
Miami, FL
Time: 7:30 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Miami -4.5/212
The Eastern Conference semifinal series between the Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat has a little less luster on it – at least for the first two games. Superstar Joel Embiid will not be available for the fourth-seeded 76ers for both games in Miami this week because of an orbital fracture and concussion sustained in Game 6 of the Sixers’ first round series with Toronto. With Philadelphia up by 29 points in the fourth quarter, Toronto’s Pascal Siakam elbowed Embiid in the head that led to his injury. The 76ers won the series 4-2 and are in the conference semis for the fourth time in last five years. They have failed to reach the conference finals since 1991 and have not won a championship since the Dr. J-led team in 1983. Miami opened up as a 4.5-point favorite, but when news came in about Embiid, the Heat jumped up to a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 208.5.
The Heat were without their star player in the Game 5 series-clinching win over the Atlanta Hawks last week, however, Jimmy Butler (knee) is expected back for Game 1. As is Tyler Herro, who was dealing with a non-COVID illness. Guard Kyle Lowry (hamstring) has been ruled out for the East’s top seed. The Heat come in as a big -350 favorite to win this series and looked like a championship team in the first round against the Hawks. The teams split their four regular season matchups with Philly winning the most recent 113-106 at home without Embiid and James Harden. The Under cashed in three of the four meetings with the losing team scoring less than 100 in those contests.
The pressure was on the Sixers before Game 6 against Toronto, as they did not want to be the first team to lose a series when up 3-0. They put their fans at ease with a dominating performance over the Raptors 132-97 on the road. Without Embiid, the 76ers will have to counter with a combination of DeAndre Jordan, Paul Reed and Charles Bassey. The Sixers went 6-8 without Embiid during the regular season, including a win vs. Miami. It will be up to Harden, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris to provide the offense. Maxey and Harris averaged 21.9 and 17.8 points, respectively, in the Toronto series.
Despite missing key players during the first round, the Heat had no trouble taking out the Hawks in five games. Butler missed Game 5 of that series with a knee injury, while Lowry didn’t play in Games 4 and 5 because of a hamstring. Butler was brilliant in the action that he did see in round one, averaging 30.5 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 5.3 assists in four games, while shooting 54.3 percent from the field and 43.8 percent from beyond the arc. Defensively, the Heat are second overall in the playoffs with just 97.4 points allowed per game. Miami is 5-1 against the spread in their last six home games.
Miami was dominant at home in the first round against Atlanta and are the Sixers any better than the Hawks without Embiid? We’ll find out right away, but my money is on the Heat. You can’t count on Maxey being consistent or Harden showing up when needed. I’ll lay the points in this one.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free NBA Picks page for today.
Pick: Heat -7.5
