San Francisco (11-7) at Green Bay (13-4)
When: Saturday, January 22nd 2022
Where: Lambeau Field,
Green Bay, WI
Time: 8:15 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: Green Bay -5.5/48
The NFC’s No. 1 seed finally takes the field on Saturday as the Green Bay Packers host the San Francisco 49ers in a Divisional Playoff game at Lambeau Field. The Packers finished 13-4 overall this season and earned the top seed before the final week of the regular season. That enabled them to rest some starters in the second half of their Week 18 game at Detroit. Green Bay has been perfect at Lambeau this year, and will hope to host the NFC Championship game next week. They’ve also been a great cover team this season, going 12-5 ATS overall and covering in seven of eight home games. The Aaron Rodgers-led offense has helped the Packers hit the Over in six of their last seven games. Now, they will play one of the better road teams in the league.
San Francisco got into the playoffs with an overtime comeback win at the L.A. Rams in the season finale and followed that up with the only upset in Wild Card Weekend. The 49ers went on the road as 3-point underdogs and upset the Dallas Cowboys 23-17. They are 7-3 away from home as compared to just 4-4 at home. San Francisco has also covered five of their last six games. One of their home losses this season came at the hands of the Packers. Green Bay earned a 30-28 victory in Week 3 behind 261 yards and two touchdowns from Rodgers. Jimmy Garoppolo finished with 257 passing yards and two TDs with one interception for the 49ers. San Francisco has won each of the last three playoff meetings against Rodgers.
Garoppolo wasn’t at his best in last Sunday’s wild card win over the Cowboys, but he’s also playing hurt. Garoppolo threw for 172 yards and an interception, failing to pass for a touchdown. Those struggles likely had to do with a sprained shoulder Garoppolo suffered in the second quarter. He’ll get the start on Saturday, but he won’t be 100 percent. Dual-threat sensation Deebo Samuel rushed for 72 yards and a touchdown last week and also added another 38 receiving yards. He averaged a league-high 18.2 yards per catch this season, while also averaging 6.2 yards per rush. On defense, defensive end Nick Bosa, who was fourth in the NFL with 15.5 sacks in the regular season, missed the second half in Dallas with a concussion. Linebacker Fred Warner left in the fourth quarter with an ankle injury. Both players have practiced this week, but are still considered questionable for Saturday. The Niners are 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 Divisional Playoffs games.
Rodgers is the favorite to win his second consecutive MVP and will be well-rested for the matchup this Saturday. He finished the regular season with 4,115 passing yards, 37 TDs and just four interceptions, while also leading the league in passer rating (111.9) and adjusted QBR (68.9). Wide receiver Davante Adams torched the Niners for 137 receiving yards and a touchdown in the Week 3 loss in September. On the season, Adams was second in the NFL in receptions (123), third in receiving yards (1,553) and fifth in receiving TDs (11). The Packers were 10th in the regular season in scoring, with an average of 26.5 points per contest and sixth with 3.2 touchdowns per game. On defense, pass rusher Za’Darius Smith and cornerback Jaire Alexander could be in the lineup on Saturday after both players returned to practice before the end of the regular season. Both players have been out since early in the season.
The Niners had trouble running against Green Bay’s defense earlier this season, but are much better now. I think San Fran can run and control the ball and keep Rodgers off the field as much as possible. The 49ers defense is very solid and will keep them in this game.
Pick: 49ers +5.5
Divisional Round Staff Selections
