Week 11 – NFL Match Up Analysis

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NFL Week 11 – NFL Match Up Analysis – NFL Betting ]]>

November 14 2007
NFL Betting
Bet On Football

New England Patriots (9-0 SU & ATS) at Buffalo Bills (5-4 SU, 6-2-1 ATS)

It seems odd putting the Buffalo Bills in the same category as the New England Patriots, but the Bills and Patriots are the two hottest ATS teams in the league. New England has cashed 12 straight regular season games while the Bills are 13-4-1 ATS since the middle of last season. New England is 12-3 ATS as double-digit favorites and it has won and covered the spread in four straight following a bye week. Buffalo, which is quietly putting together a decent season, is 25-7 ATS when coming off a win by three points or less. When playing at home, the Bills have covered at an impressive rate of 19 of 25 during Weeks 10-13 and seven straight in November. The Patriots beat up Buffalo 38-7 in their first meeting this year as 14-point home favorites. But then again, who hasn’t New England been beating up? Buffalo and New England have gone under in 15 of their past 19 meetings.

Tennessee Titans (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) at Denver Broncos (4-5 SU, 2-7 ATS)

The Titans find themselves on the road again after a long homestand – a homestand that ended on a sour note with a 28-13 defeat to the Jacksonville Jaguars. The loss dropped the Titans into a tie with the Jaguars atop the AFC-South standings.
Tennessee has a solid road record, going 3-1 both straight up and against the spread, but will be facing a Broncos squad that suddenly has reason for hope. The Broncos upset win at Kansas City moved them into a second-place tie in the wide-open AFC-West, just one game behind San Diego. But the Broncos are a pitiful 0-7 ATS in November following a SU win as underdogs and just 3-11 ATS at home after winning SU against a division opponent. Tennessee, meanwhile, has bounced back in the past, covering the spread in 15 of 20 after losing by 14 points or more.

Washington Redskins (5-4 SU, 3-4-2 ATS) at Dallas Cowboys (8-1 SU, 6-2-1 ATS)
This is one of those rivalries where the straight-up winner almost always covers the spread. Over the past 28 meetings between these NFC-East rivals, the SU winner is an amazing 24-3-1 ATS. Dallas has some other numbers squarely in their favor: The Cowboys are 14-4 ATS versus Washington, and are 8-1 ATS at home coming off back-to-back road games. However, they are just 9-17-2 as double-digit favorites. The Redskins are 11-5-1 as division road underdogs, and have failed in 12 of 17 ATS after losing SU as favorites. The teams have gone under in nine of 11 when Dallas was favored. The Cowboys have gone over in 17 of 21 at home after three or more straight victories.

Kansas City Chiefs (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS) at Indianapolis Colts (7-2 SU, 5-2-2 ATS)
It’s amazing what a difference a couple of Sundays can make – just ask Peyton Manning and the Colts. Indianapolis has gone from seemingly invincible to officially slumping. And some numbers don’t point to a huge turnaround for the Colts, who are 0-6 ATS at home in November following back-to-back SU losses. But the Colts have covered at a 22-9-2 pace after losing SU as favorites, and have covered a solid eight of their past nine against the Chiefs. Kansas City is a woeful 2-8-1 ATS on the road versus teams with winning records. The Chiefs are hurting, limping to consecutive losses, and may be without Larry Johnson again, which would mean the green Brodie Croyle would be taking snaps across from a aggressive Colts D-Line. The total has gone under in six of Kansas City’s past seven games on the road, and under in 13 of its past 19 games.

Oakland Raiders (2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS) at Minnesota Vikings (3-6 SU, 3-4-2 ATS)
The Raiders and Vikings are both coming off demoralizing defeats and this matchup pits the league’s worst road run defense against the league’s best home rushing offense. Oakland has dropped 23 of 37 ATS decisions on the road, but it has covered 10 of 16 as underdogs when facing NFC opposition. Minnesota is 4-15 in November as favorites when coming off a SU and ATS loss. Oakland is 4-1 SU and ATS in its past five games against Minnesota. The total has gone under in four of Oakland’s past five games, and has gone under in eight of Oakland’s past 10 on the road.

Cleveland Browns (5-4 SU, 7-2 ATS) at Baltimore Ravens (3-6 SU, 1-8 ATS)
The underdog in this AFC-North rivalry has covered the spread in nine of the past 12 series meetings and the home team is 7-2 ATS. Cleveland has cashed six of seven in November as favorites and eight straight after allowing 30 points or more in its last game. Baltimore is 7-15 as underdogs of less than five points. The Ravens are a perfect 0-6 ATS against conference opponents this season. The Browns beat the Ravens 27-13 as 4½-home underdogs when the teams met earlier this season.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-4 SU & ATS) at Atlanta Falcons (3-6 SU, 6-3 ATS)

Tampa Bay has covered the spread against the Falcons at an impressive 8-4-1 rate, and the favorite has cashed at a 13-5-1 pace. But the Buccaneers are 5-10 as division road favorites and 2-7 as road favorites of 3½ or less. The Falcons have failed to cover in 24 of 33 at home after allowing 14 points or less in their last game. They have also failed to cash in 17 of 21 at home when facing teams with a winning record. Tampa Bay has gone under in 15 of 20 on the road and in seven straight on the road when the game total was between 35½ and 38.

Arizona Cardinals (4-5 SU, 6-2-1 ATS) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-6 SU, 3-5-1 ATS)
Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS in its past six games against Arizona. The Cardinals have covered just four of their past 14 games when they’re an underdog of more than three points playing a non-conference opponent. The Cardinals have also dropped 20 of 28 on the road against non-division opponents. Cincinnati is 20-12-2 at Paul Brown Stadium versus NFC foes. The Bengals have failed to cash seven straight at home after losing two of their previous three games. There is a significant over trend, as Arizona has gone over in 19 of 27 games as underdogs, has gone over in seven of the past nine on the road, and over in 11 of the past 15 overall.

Miami Dolphins (0-9 SU, 2-4-3 ATS) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-5 SU & ATS)
The lowly Miami Dolphins are a surprising 13-2-1 as road underdogs of five points or more against non-division opponents. The Dolphins have also covered at an 8-3-1 clip as underdog against NFC foes. Philadelphia is 7-19 ATS as non-conference favorites. But the Eagles are 14-9 ATS at home coming off a SU and ATS win and they have cashed five straight when facing teams from the AFC-East. Miami has gone under in eight of 10 as double-digit underdogs, and Philadelphia has also gone under in 12 of 15 after scoring 28 points or more in its last game.

Carolina Panthers (4-5 SU & ATS) at Green Bay Packers (8-1 SU, 7-1-1 ATS)

Green Bay is an almost perfect 12-1 SU in its past 13 games, 6-1 SU in its past seven at home, and 8-1-1 ATS in its past 10 games. But are they really that good? Carolina is struggling, but that could mean trouble for the packers, especially if they take the Panthers too lightly. Carolina is a very impressive 20-11-2 as non-division road underdogs. Green Bay is a very weak 2-10 ATS coming off a division game, 2-11-1 as double-digit favorites and 6-12-1 as home favorites. There’s a definite under trend: The total has gone under in five of Carolina’s past five game, under in four of Carolina’s past five on the road, and under in eight of Green Bay’s past 11 at home.

St. Louis Rams (1-8 SU & ATS) at San Francisco 49ers (2-7 SU, 2-7 ATS)

The Rams finally picked up a win last week. Can they make it two straight? It might be difficult, as San Francisco has cashed 21 of its past 29 against St. Louis. The 49ers have won four of the past five series meetings with their NFC West rivals and covered five straight. They are 9-3 ATS at home against the Rams. St. Louis is 8-19-2 ATS after winning SU as underdogs and it is 0-10 ATS as underdogs in the second of back-to-back road games. San Francisco has gone over the total in 19 of 25 as division favorites at home.

Chicago Bears (4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS) at Seattle Seahawks (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS)

The Seahawks are coming off a shutout win over San Francisco and face an improving Bears team that has won 10 of 13 games on the road going back to last season. This game is rematch of last season’s NFC Championship, won by Chicago.
Chicago has cashed eight of nine on the road in November coming off a double-digit SU victory. Chicago is back to having a QB controversy, as Rex Grossman passed for 142 yards with a touchdown in place of Brian Griese last week. Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its past five games against Seattle, and 7-3 ATS in its past 10 on the road. The total has gone under in six of Seattle’s past seven at home.