Thursday’s MLB Baseball Free Picks & Predictions [7/23/26]

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**All plays are Listed Pitchers and trends are courtesy of Don Best Sports and are through 7/22/26**


San Diego (Canning) at Atlanta (Sale) – 12:15 ET

Win/Loss
Hot: Padres are 8-1 in their last 9 during game 4 of a series.
Hot: Braves are 10-2 in Sale’s last 12 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Hot: Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. National League East.
Cold: Padres are 0-5 in their last 5 Thursday games.
Cold: Padres are 0-5 in Canning’s last 5 road starts.
Cold: Padres are 0-5 in Canning’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Over/Under
Hot: Over is 4-0-2 in Sale’s last 6 home starts.
Hot: Over is 5-0 in Braves last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Hot: Under is 5-0 in Canning’s last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Hot: Over is 4-0 in Sale’s last 4 Thursday starts.
Hot: Over is 3-0-1 in Braves last 4 during game 4 of a series.
Hot: Over is 7-1 in Braves last 8 home games.

Head-to-Head
Hot: Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in Atlanta.
Under is 7-2-2 in the last 11 meetings.
Padres are 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Atlanta.
Padres are 20-7 in the last 27 meetings.

Pick: Padres +219


Minnesota (Bradley) at Cleveland (Williams) – 1:10 ET

Win/Loss
Hot: Twins are 4-0 in Bradley’s last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Hot: Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 Thursday games.
Hot: Twins are 6-1 in their last 7 games after losing the first 3 games of a series.
Cold: Twins are 0-4 in their last 4 games on grass.
Cold: Twins are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Cold: Twins are 0-4 in their last 4 road games.

Over/Under
Hot: Under is 6-0-1 in Williams’ last 7 Thursday starts.
Hot: Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 during game 4 of a series.
Hot: Over is 6-1-1 in Bradley’s last 8 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Hot: Over is 6-1 in Bradley’s last 7 road starts.
Hot: Over is 5-1-1 in Twins last 7 Thursday games.
Hot: Over is 5-1 in Williams’ last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.

Head-to-Head
Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Cleveland.
Twins are 9-23 in the last 32 meetings in Cleveland.

Pick: Twins +125


Tampa Bay (Seymour) at Toronto (Bieber) – 3:07 ET

Win/Loss
Hot: Blue Jays are 4-1 in Bieber’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Hot: Rays are 4-1 in their last 5 games on astroturf.
Hot: Rays are 4-1 in their last 5 Thursday games.
Cold: Blue Jays are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Cold: Blue Jays are 1-6 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Cold: Blue Jays are 1-6 in their last 7 overall.

Over/Under
Hot: Under is 5-0 in Blue Jays last 5 during game 4 of a series.
Hot: Over is 4-1-1 in Blue Jays last 6 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Hot: Over is 4-1-1 in Rays last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
Hot: Under is 4-1 in Bieber’s last 5 starts on astroturf.
Hot: Under is 4-1 in Bieber’s last 5 home starts.
Over is 7-2-1 in Rays last 10 overall.

Head-to-Head
Hot: Rays are 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.
Hot: Rays are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Toronto.
Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Toronto.

Pick: Rays -101

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Kansas City (Dobnak) at Detroit (Melton) – 6:40 ET

Win/Loss
Hot: Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series.
Hot: Tigers are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
Hot: Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Cold: Royals are 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Cold: Royals are 0-5 in their last 5 road games.
Cold: Royals are 1-6 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Over/Under
Hot: Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
Hot: Under is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 home games.
Hot: Under is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 vs. American League Central.
Over is 6-2 in Royals last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 17-6-4 in Tigers last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Under is 8-3 in Tigers last 11 on grass.

Head-to-Head
Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.
Royals are 7-19 in the last 26 meetings in Detroit.
Royals are 6-16 in the last 22 meetings.

Pick: Tigers -1.5 -103


Arizona (Pfaadt) at St Louis (McGreevy) – 5:15 ET

Win/Loss
Hot: Cardinals are 4-0 in McGreevy’s last 4 starts vs. National League West.
Hot: Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
Hot: Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Cold: Cardinals are 0-4 in their last 4 games on grass.
Cold: Cardinals are 0-4 in their last 4 overall.
Cold: Cardinals are 1-5 in their last 6 games as a favorite.

Over/Under
Hot: Under is 7-0-1 in McGreevy’s last 8 starts as an underdog.
Hot: Under is 6-0 in McGreevy’s last 6 home starts.
Hot: Under is 6-0 in McGreevy’s last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
Hot: Under is 5-0-1 in McGreevy’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Hot: Under is 4-0-1 in McGreevy’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
Hot: Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games as a favorite.

Head-to-Head
Hot: Diamondbacks are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Diamondbacks are 2-5 in the last 7 meetings in St. Louis.

Pick: Cardinals -119