2007 Fiesta Bowl Preview and Pick: Boise State Broncos vs. Oklahoma Sooners ]]> include($base_url . “/includes/header.htm”); ?>
|Boise State Broncos (12-0) +7, o/u 50.5 vs. Oklahoma Sooners (11-2) on Monday, January 1, 2007 at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on Fox
by Ultimatecapper.com Staff
The Boise State Broncos capped off a perfect regular season by beating Nevada 38-7 to advance to the BCS series.
The Oklahoma Sooners finished off the year with 8 straight wins including a win against Nebraska, 21-7, in the Big 12 Championship game.
The Broncos, winners of the WAC Conference, will be playing in their 5th straight bowl game. They were defeated by Boston College last year by a score of 27-21.
The Sooners, champions of the Big 12 Conference, will be making their 8th straight bowl appearance. They beat Oregon last year by a score of 17-14.
These teams have no recent matchups and had no common opponents this year.
Boise State was 5-5-1 against the spread this season. Oklahoma was 9-3-1 against the number this year.
The Broncos are led by Senior QB Jared Zabransky. He is completing 66.4% of his passes and has thrown for 2,325 yards this season. He has thrown for 20 touchdowns and 7 interceptions this season.
The Sooners are led by Senior QB Paul Thompson who has a 60.9% completion rate and has thrown for 2,434 yards this season. He has 20 touchdowns and has thrown 8 interceptions.
Boise State averages 223 yards rushing per game and their defense allows 82 yards rushing per game. Oklahoma is outrushing their opponents by a margin of 177-98.
The Broncos rank 2nd in scoring offense in Division 1 (out of 119 teams) by averaging 39.4 points per game. Oklahoma is ranked 26th in scoring offense by averaging 29.4 points per game.
Boise State is ranked 11th in total yards per game with 424.2 yards per game. Oklahoma is ranked 42nd with an average of 365.8 yards per game.
The Broncos defense is ranked 18th giving up an average 15.6 points per game. The Sooners’ defense is ranked 17th giving up an average 15.3 points per game.
Boise State’s defense is ranked 14th in total yards by giving up an average of 273.8 yards per game. Oklahoma is ranked 17th giving up 280.2 yards per game.
Boise State averages 6.4 yards per play while giving up an average of 4.8 yards per play. Oklahoma averages 5.7 YPP while giving up 4.6 YPP.
The Over/Under is 6-5 in Boise State games this season, 4-9 in Oklahoma games.
The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings at USAToday.com rank the Broncos #9 at 87.12. Oklahoma ranks #14 at 86.19.
The opening line on this game was Oklahoma -8 with a total of 51. The line has moved down to Oklahoma -7 and the total has dropped to 50.5. At the time of this writing the betting public was backing Oklahoma by a margin of 65%-35%.
The Ultimatecapper Prediction: Here is another example of the public favoring one side but the line dropping. We will stay with our theory here and take the Broncos plus the points.
Oklahoma 26 Boise State 24