2006 Breeders Cup Preview and Picks

Churchill Downs – Saturday November 4, 2006

Race 3 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies

Wagering Key – WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, PICK 3, PICK 4, DD

1. Cash Included

2. Adhrythm

3. Dreaming of Anna

4. Bel Air Beauty

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Cash Included comes into this race of an impressive win in a key prep race, the Oak Leaf. Her jockey Corey Nakatani has won this race before. This race favors runners that can sit close to a strong pace and still finish. She fits that bill. Adhrythm has been creaming her opposition in Florida and may have more class than appears. She also gets a rider switch to Edgar Prado, who has won this race before. Additionally, Adhrythm is the only 2-turn winner in this race. Dreaming Of Anna is undefeated in three starts, but we can’t tell how good she is because her last two wins came on the turf. Trainer Wayne Catalono clicks at an amazing 40 percent on the turf-to-dirt move however, so this could be Anna’s dream day. Bel Air Beauty had some trouble in her last but closed well on the polytrack to win the Alchibades at Keeneland. She could move forward again. Our longshots for the superfecta will include Cotton Blossom, Octave and Her Majesty.

Race 4 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

Wagering Key – WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, PICK 3

1. Scat Daddy

2. Stormello

3. Principle Secret

4. Pegasus Wind

Scat Daddy came with a determined run to beat a field of 10 in the Champagne and appears to be improving at the right time. Stormello showed good determination wearing down Principle Secret to win the Norfolk in his last and has the perfect stalking style needed to win this race at a nice price. Principle Secret gets a rider switch to Nakatani with hopes he can come from just off the pace. If not he may be in trouble battling up front. Pegasus Wind gets the fourth slot because his trainer Wayne Lukas has won this race five times. A nice recent long work at Churchill and the fact that he gets first time Lasix makes us think he could run big and improve off his third place finish in the Champagne.

Race 5 – Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf

Wagering Key – WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, PICK 3, PICK 6

1. Ouija Board

2. Film Maker

3. Honey Ryder

4. Wait A While

Anyone who watched the replay of Ouija Board’s last race knows why she’s the play here and a likely key in the Pick 6 and Pick 4. She simply outclasses this field. And she’s won this race before. She finished second in this race last year when the lone speed took off on her. She was also in suspect form last year. She’s good now, having been narrowly beaten in the Irish Champion Stakes to Dylan Thomas after a stretch-long duel. Dylan Thomas is a male, but regardless, on sheer ability and class, he would destroy this field. He only beat Ouija Board by a neck in her last. Film Maker finds ways to lose. She probably should have won her last over Honey Ryder but she lugged in a touch at the top of the stretch and lost by a nose. She gets a much needed rider switch to top turf rider Edgar Prado and should be right there for the exacta late. Honey Rider beat Film Maker in her last but was set up perfectly for the race with a 6-week layoff and got an excellent ride from Velazquez. She does however, love the distance (5-for-6) and would not be a surprise in the exacta. Three-year-old Wait A While has looked like a monster winning four in a row and she might just try and open up on the final turn and scoot away. She moves up in class for this however and we’re thinking she might not measure up to some of these tough older mares.

Race 6 – Breeders’ Cup Sprint

Wagering Key – WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, PICK 3

1. Bordonaro

2. Henny Hughes

3. Too Much Bling

4. Siren Lure

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Bordonaro looks even better as the class speed of the sprint with Pat Valenzuela in the irons. The best speed rider (and probably best overall rider) in North America is undefeated on this horse (3-for-3) and he will be rolling on the front end from a good post early. He should be able to put away the other speed, but will have to hold on to defeat some tough closers. Henny Hughes looked great winning the Vosburgh but that’s not why we chose him. No, we’re using him on the courage angle. This horse simply won’t quit. Even when he gets passed he still tries. It appears he will rate nicely based on his last win and will give his best late, but we’re a little concerned about his post. He definitely needs a clean break and must establish good stalking position early. If he gets shuffled back at the gate his shot of winning this race could be over. Too Much Bling has been reinvented into a sprinter and his win in the Carry Back showed he could stay close to fast fractions and still come hard late. He’s coming into the race fresh and has numerous bullet works which indicate he’s ready to run a huge race. Siren Lure has won three stakes in a row from just off the pace and he gets Solis in the irons, who has won this race before – at Churchill. He also comes into the race with bullet works off a layoff and would not be a surprise at a juicy 10-1 morning line. We’ll also be using Pomeroy and War Front in our trifectas. The former because we thought he ran well in his last and the latter because of a recent sizzling work and his trainer, Giant Killer H. Allen Jerkens, whom we regard as the finest trainer on the planet.

Race 7 – Breeders’ Cup Mile

Wagering Key – WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, PICK 3, PICK 4

1. Echo Of Light

2. Aussie Rules

3. Araafa

4. Aragorn

This is a wide open race where trips mean everything. Echo of Light comes off two impressive wins across the pond, has a good post and the speed to stay close early. He also gets first time Lasix and a rider switch to Dettori, who has won this race before. Aussie Rules will probably be overlooked in the betting off his perfect trip to win the Shadwell at Keeneland in his last. But that was an impressive win considering it was his first start in North America. Gomez stays aboard and he won this race last year. He has to overcome his tough wide post but the morning-line of 10-1 make him well worth looking at. Araafa arrives off a second place finish in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth in which he led late but tired. He now gets first time Lasix and top rider Velazquez. Trainer Noseda can have one ready to crack here. Aragorn has been beating up on suspect competition in California but he would not be a surprise winner in his current form with regular rider Nakatani, who has won this race before. Librettist and Gorella must be used in the exotics. Apparently Librettist was bothered in his only bad race (his last) by the winner’s stablemate on purpose. Otherwise his form looks dynamite. Gorella has a fierce finishing kick and could upset.

Race 8 – Breeders’ Cup Distaff

Wagering Key – WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, PICK 3

1. Pine island

2. Fleet Indian

3. Asi Siempra

4. Lemons Forever

Pine Island is a trainer play, but she also has talent. Shug McGaughey has won this race three times including a stunning upset with 28-1 Pleasant Home last year. She’s an improving 3-year-old with back-to-back confidence building wins and showed good determination in her last. Fleet Indian is the logical favorite in what should be a close race. Based on her recent victory in the Beldame she doesn’t need the lead to win, but we are worried about her rider Santos, who didn’t exactly give this mare a great trip in that race. A poor trip and she’s beatable. If P Val. was in the saddle she’d be our pick. Asi Siempra may get overlooked in the wagering based on the fact that her Spinster win came on the polytrack at Keeneland and she has no dirt form to speak of. But she does get the hot-riding Leparoux and trainer Patrick Biancone is more than capable. Lemons Forever is a closer in a field with ample speed and should rally for a piece late.

Race 9 – Breeders’ Cup Turf

Wagering Key – WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER, DD

1. Red Rocks

2. English Channel

3. Cacique

4. Hurricane Run

Let’s be clear here, if Hurricane Run comes back into form he wins this race for fun. The notes on his Arc loss are wrong; he got into trouble in that race and came on again late. He did not finish evenly. However, he wilted on the pace in his next start, which was tough to figure out. Is he off form? Hard to tell. But class wise he is the best horse in here. We’ve opted to go with Red Rocks for a number of reasons. He’ll be a great price, he gets first time Lasix, he gets Dettori, who has won this race before, and he has some hidden class based on his second place finish behind Arc winner Rail Link three starts ago. That’s enough for us. English Channel is a decent horse who can win this race with a perfect trip, but he is certainly not a standout. Cacique benefited from a perfect trip inside to win his last, the Man O’ War. He does get top turf rider Prado however and would not be a surprise as one of the favorites.

Race 10 – Breeders’ Cup Classic

Wagering Key – WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER

1. Invasor

2. Bernardini

3. Lawyer Ron

4. Lava Man

While we will definitely be using Bernardini as a key on some of our Pick 6 tickets we’ll also be playing a ticket with seven horses including all the above plus longshots Suave, Sun King and David Junior. Bernardini just may be another Spectacular Bid kind of horse but we he still hasn’t faced any real competition, especially not the kind he’ll face in the Classic. He’s been rolling over weak opposition in every race. Somehow we just can’t see the speedy and classy Lava Man, who has won seven stakes in a row, caving in immediately when challenged. Add that to the fact that he might not even get the lead in here. Lawyer Ron gets a huge trainer-rider switch to Pletcher and our favorite rider Pat Valenzuela, so who know what kind of improvement we’ll see with him. Thinking that Bernardini will sit just off the pace and challenge the speed on the final turn, we’re surmising the classier speed horses might take a little starch out of Bernardini this time before he gets the lead into the stretch. This will set the race up perfectly for Invasor, who has won 8-of-9 starts and somehow finds ways to win when he shouldn’t. Suave had a terrible trip in his last and Sun King can sometimes throw a huge race, so we’re including them in our exotics as longshots. David Junior is an unknown class entity from overseas and also needs to be used in the exotics.

Could Bernadini win? Sure. Is he a logical favorite? Yes. But at a short price we’re going to try to beat him. We didn’t wait all year for this just to make a few dollars.

Our Breeders’ Cup betting will be designed around one thing and one thing only – to make a huge score. See you at the cashier’s windows.

Bring you wheelbarrow!