2004 NFL Season Win Predictions

AFC Predictions:

New England
Posted Win Total – 10 ½ games
Doc’s projected wins – 12
Play on the OVER
Analysis: The Patriots should pick up right where they leftoff after the 2003-04 season as they won 15 consecutive gameswhich was capped by a Super Bowl win over Carolina. They didlose a few key players in the offseason – including NT Ted Washingtonand G Damien Woody. But they replaced Washington with anotherbig body – Keith Traylor – and shored up their RB situationby picking up Corey Dillon from the Bengals. This team’s success,however, was never about one or two guys. Their Super Bowl wincan be credited to great coaching and a true team effort. QBTom Brady is developing into one of the legendary clutch playersever to lace up the cleats. New England will be making a runfor Jacksonville (site of Super Bowl XXXIX) and we seriouslydoubt they will win less than 11 games.

New York Jets
Posted Win Total – 9
Doc’s projected wins – 6
Play on the UNDER
Analysis: You are going to have to lay some juice here playingthe under but we think it is a pretty safe bet as the divisionshould be much improved. New England will be a playoff teamand Miami should be in the hunt too. Buffalo will be betterwith new coach Mike Mularkey. This leaves the Jets as the oddteam out and we expect them to finish at the bottom of the division.Young QB Chad Pennington is a future star in the league, buthe will take more lumps until he has success. RB Curtis Martinis becoming less effective after being one of the hardest workingbacks in the league for nearly a decade. Runners in the NFLhave the shortest careers of any position and Martin has hadto carry the team on his shoulders for years. Even if Penningtonplays his best, we don’t see the Jets getting more than eightwins when taking his supporting cast into account.

Oakland Raiders
Posted Win Total – 7 ½
Doc’s projected wins – 6
Play on the UNDER
Analysis: Even though the Raiders made some key acquisitionsin the offseason, hoping to improve on their 4-12 campaign,it won’t be enough to get them a winning season as they areentering the second year of what is going to be at least a three-yearrebuilding effort. QB Rich Gannon is getting old. So are WRsTim Brown and Jerry Rice. The additions of DTs Warren Sapp andTed Washington should help improve a defense that was dead lastin the NFL against the run last season. The defense will haveto be exceptional because the offense will be horrible unlessGannon can pull of a miracle and Brown and Rice can give onelast gasp. They also have a lot of questions at RB.

Houston Texans
Posted Win Total – 6 ½
Doc’s projected wins – 9
Play on the OVER
Analysis: This will be the Texans breakout year and they willno longer be thought of as an “expansion team.” Theyshowed signs of brilliance last year as they opened the seasonwith a win at Miami and also notched wins at Buffalo and athome against NFC Champs Carolina. They had many other closegames against some of the best teams in the league and withone more year of experience under their belts they will turnsome of those close losses into wins. We expect a serious playoffrun here even though they play in a division with Indianapolisand Tennessee (who they must play twice each). QB David Carris the real deal and RB Domanick Davis is emerging as a franchiseback. The offensive line is getting better all the time andallowing Carr more opportunities to work his magic. Combinethat with an athletic, stingy defense and you have the makingsof an up-and-coming team. Houston could get off to a fast startbecause three of their first four games are against San Diego,Detroit and Oakland. Success early in the season translatesinto confidence toward the end of the season and the playoffs.Yes, we said playoffs. But the Texans might be a year away ina tough AFC.

NFC Predictions:

Philadelphia
Posted Win Total – 10 ½ games
Doc’s projected wins – 12
Play on the OVER
Analysis: Three strikes don’t necessarily mean that the Eaglesare out (of the running, that is). Philadelphia has been bouncedfrom the NFC Championship Game three years in a row but theywill make another run at Super Bowl glory this season. We thinkthat they have the tools to get there and that they have thebest chance to represent the conference in Jacksonville. Theyplay in a division that will be improved from top to bottomhowever a couple of key offseason moves should get them overthe hump and into the big game. WR has been a major issue inrecent years and that problem has been solved with the additionof superstar Terrell Owens from San Francisco. Can Owens avoidcontroversy and help his team reach their post-season goals?We think so. DE Javon Kearse was brought in to help shore upa defense that was ranked No. 20 in the league last year. Ifhe can avoid injury he will be a huge factor this season. TheEagles have been similar to the Patriots in the fact that theyhave seen success with solid QB play and a team effort withan absence of big name stars. The addition of a couple of big-nameplayers will help elevate the team to the Super Bowl and wethink this is their year to shine.

Seattle
Posted Win Total – 9 games
Doc’s projected wins – 12
Play on the OVER
Analysis: This is another team that will make a strong pushfor the Super Bowl this year. Seattle now has some playoff experienceunder its belt, after it was knocked out of contention in GreenBay last year. The Seahawks are awesome at home and went undefeatedat Seahawks Stadium last year. They should improve their performanceon the road this year that could be crucial in landing somehome-field advantage in the playoffs. They play in a weak divisionwhere it will be a two-team race for the top spot with the Rams.Two games each against the 49ers and the Cardinals virtuallyguarantees that the Hawks will reach almost half of this postedwin total. The team had a potent offense last season and thatshould not change this year. The defense, however, has beenthe big drawback and the excuse for not making it further intothe playoffs last year. In order to shore up that unit theyculled DE Grant Winstrom from division rival St. Louis and theyalso brought in CB Bobby Taylor from Philadelphia. Three oftheir first four picks were on defense and those players willprovide immediate depth to a unit that was ranked No. 19 inthe NFL last year. On offense, all cylinders will be clickingand underrated RB Shaun Alexander will have another great yearbehind a stellar offensive line.

Dallas
Posted Win Total – 9 games
Doc’s projected wins – 7
Play on the UNDER
Analysis: Dallas relied on its No. 1 defense last year for asurprising run to the playoffs. It will have a much toughertime repeating that feat this year, mainly because the divisionis much improved and the team will not be surprising anyonethis time around. While it has always been said that defensewins championships, no team can rely on that side of the ballexclusively to get them to the big game. It looks like the Cowboysand second-year coach Bill Parcells are going to have to experiencesome more growing pains on offense in order to start playingat a championship level. Every facet of the Dallas offense ifrife with question marks. The offensive line is young and inexperiencedaside from veterans Larry Allen and Flozell Adams. Running backTroy Hambrick, despite having one of the best names in the NFL,averaged a measly 3.5 yards per carry last season, worst amongNFC starters. He could be unseated this season by rookie JuliusJones from Notre Dame. Whomever the starter is, he will likelystruggle behind the Dallas O-line. Quarterback is also up inthe air as last year’s unspectacular starter Quincy Carter willbe competing for his job with rookie Drew Henson. The team overachievedlast year but this year they will come back to earth and theywill likely finish third in the division behind the Eagles andRedskins.

New Orleans
Posted Win Total – 7 1/2 games
Doc’s projected wins – 9
Play on the OVER
Analysis: Talk about underachieving! There probably isn’t anotherteam that has failed to reach its potential in the last severalyears than this squad. They have one of the best RBs in thegame (Deuce McAllister) and a QB (Aaron Brooks) that is athleticas anyone in the game at his position, not to mention a potentialstar in WR Joe Horn. But the team has struggled to put it alltogether and coach Jim Haslett will be fired if the Saints failto make the playoffs. The team is known more for its inconsistencythan anything else. Last year part of the problem was a rashof injuries on defense and the team still finished 8-8. We thinkthat this team will be able to put together a playoff run ifeveryone can stay healthy and if Brooks can finally become thedominant QB that he has shown signs that he can be.

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