NY Yankees (2-0) at Minnesota (0-2)
When: Monday, October 7th 2019
Where: Target Field,
Minneapolis, MN
Time: 8:40 ET | TV: FS1
Opening Odds: New York -136/9
The Minnesota Twins had one of the best seasons in franchise history, winning 101 games and smashing a major league home run record in the process, but all of that is for nothing if they can’t win the next three games. Winning one postseason game has been difficult enough for this franchise, who have dropped a record 15 in a row – 12 to the Yankees – and haven’t won a home playoff game since they were in the Metrodome in 2002. New York’s offense and solid pitching have been too much for the Twins to handle thus far and will turn to Luis Severino to close out the series and move onto either Houston or Tampa Bay (my bet is Houston). The Yankees have outscored Minnesota 18-6 and saw Didi Gregorious blast a grand slam in Saturday’s Game 2 to help the Yankees earn an 8-2 victory behind a dominating effort from Masahiro Tanaka and four relievers. The Twins struck out 14 times and are batting just .197 as a team, but second baseman Luis Arraez has three of his team’s four doubles.
Pitchers: Yankees – Luis Severino (1-1, 1.50 ERA) | Twins – Jake Odorizzi (15-7, 3.51)
Severino made three starts down the stretch after missing most of the year with shoulder and lat issues and has not been very good in the postseason. He allowed three runs while recording one out in the 2017 wild card game against the Twins, but the Yankees went on to win that game nonetheless. In six career postseason starts, Severino has posted a 6.26 ERA, while working beyond five innings only one time. Severino allowed two runs over 12 innings in his final three starts of the regular season, while topping out at 82 pitches.
Odorizzi is coming off his best season in the majors that earned him an All-Star nod this past summer. He allowed three earned runs or fewer in each of his final 10 starts and was 7-3 at home. Odorizzi, who will be making his postseason debut, pitched six scoreless innings at Yankee Stadium on May 4th, but was tagged for a season-high nine runs in four innings Target Field in July.
I want to say the Twins can win this game, but how can you take a team that has lost 15 postseason games in a row? I do believe their bats will come alive at home, while the Yankees will continue to pound the ball. The three meetings this season at Target Field went over and here were the scores: 8-6, 14-12, 10-7. Take the over.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free MLB Picks page for Monday. He finished 135-95 +2686 units in the regular season!
Pick: OVER 9 -115
BETTING TRENDS:
Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League Central.
Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 games following an off day.
Yankees are 21-7 in their last 28 during game 3 of a series.
Yankees are 30-10 in their last 40 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Yankees are 5-2 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Yankees are 59-24 in their last 83 games on grass.
Yankees are 39-17 in their last 56 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Yankees are 24-11 in their last 35 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Yankees are 38-18 in their last 56 Monday games.
Yankees are 2-5 in their last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Yankees are 2-6 in their last 8 games following a win.
Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Yankees are 1-5 in their last 6 road games.
Yankees are 2-10 in their last 12 playoff road games.
Yankees are 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Yankees are 8-2 in Severino’s last 10 starts vs. American League Central.
Yankees are 7-2 in Severino’s last 9 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Yankees are 17-5 in Severino’s last 22 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Yankees are 42-14 in Severino’s last 56 starts.
Yankees are 39-13 in Severino’s last 52 starts on grass.
Yankees are 27-10 in Severino’s last 37 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Yankees are 21-8 in Severino’s last 29 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Yankees are 13-5 in Severino’s last 18 starts during game 3 of a series.
Yankees are 18-7 in Severino’s last 25 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Yankees are 1-4 in Severino’s last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Twins are 4-0 in their last 4 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.
Twins are 5-1 in their last 6 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 games following an off day.
Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 Monday games.
Twins are 25-8 in their last 33 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Twins are 26-9 in their last 35 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Twins are 5-2 in their last 7 home games.
Twins are 45-19 in their last 64 games following a loss.
Twins are 14-6 in their last 20 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Twins are 46-21 in their last 67 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Twins are 17-8 in their last 25 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Twins are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. American League East.
Twins are 3-9 in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Twins are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Twins are 4-19 in their last 23 Divisional Playoff games.
Twins are 4-22 in their last 26 playoff games.
Twins are 1-6 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series.
Twins are 1-10 in their last 11 Divisional Playoff home games.
Twins are 1-10 in their last 11 playoff home games.
Twins are 7-0 in Odorizzi’s last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Twins are 5-0 in Odorizzi’s last 5 Monday starts.
Twins are 4-0 in Odorizzi’s last 4 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Twins are 5-1 in Odorizzi’s last 6 starts vs. American League East.
Twins are 5-1 in Odorizzi’s last 6 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Twins are 4-1 in Odorizzi’s last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Twins are 4-1 in Odorizzi’s last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Twins are 21-6 in Odorizzi’s last 27 starts.
Twins are 20-6 in Odorizzi’s last 26 starts on grass.
Twins are 6-2 in Odorizzi’s last 8 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Twins are 9-3 in Odorizzi’s last 12 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Twins are 17-6 in Odorizzi’s last 23 home starts.
Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 on grass.
Over is 21-5-1 in Yankees last 27 vs. American League Central.
Over is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 overall.
Under is 10-3 in Yankees last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 13-4-2 in Yankees last 19 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 15-5-1 in Yankees last 21 games following an off day.
Over is 5-2-1 in Yankees last 8 Divisional Playoff games.
Over is 5-2 in Yankees last 7 playoff games.
Under is 5-2 in Yankees last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 10-0 in Severino’s last 10 Monday starts.
Over is 4-0 in Severino’s last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-0 in Severino’s last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 5-0 in Severino’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 5-0 in Severino’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 5-1 in Severino’s last 6 starts on grass.
Over is 5-1 in Severino’s last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
Over is 5-1 in Severino’s last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 13-3 in Severino’s last 16 starts vs. American League Central.
Over is 4-1 in Severino’s last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 16-5 in Severino’s last 21 starts overall.
Over is 7-3 in Severino’s last 10 road starts.
Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games following a loss.
Under is 8-1-2 in Twins last 11 Monday games.
Under is 7-1-1 in Twins last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 7-1-2 in Twins last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 4-1 in Twins last 5 games following an off day.
Over is 4-1 in Twins last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
Under is 4-1 in Twins last 5 playoff home games.
Under is 4-1 in Twins last 5 Divisional Playoff home games.
Under is 7-2 in Twins last 9 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 6-2-1 in Twins last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Under is 14-6 in Twins last 20 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 9-4 in Twins last 13 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Odorizzi’s last 4 Monday starts.
Under is 3-0-1 in Odorizzi’s last 4 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 4-0-1 in Odorizzi’s last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 5-0 in Odorizzi’s last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Odorizzi’s last 4 starts vs. American League East.
Under is 6-0 in Odorizzi’s last 6 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Odorizzi’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 8-2 in Odorizzi’s last 10 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 15-5-1 in Odorizzi’s last 21 starts overall.
Under is 15-5-1 in Odorizzi’s last 21 home starts.
Under is 13-5 in Odorizzi’s last 18 starts during game 3 of a series.
Under is 18-7-1 in Odorizzi’s last 26 starts on grass.
Over is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings.
Yankees are 62-21 in the last 83 meetings.
Over is 18-7-2 in the last 27 meetings in Minnesota.
Yankees are 35-16 in the last 51 meetings in Minnesota.
