NY Yankees (0-0) at Boston (0-0)
When: Friday, October 5th 2018
Where: Fenway Park,
Boston, Massachusetts
Time: 7:35 ET | TV: TBS
Opening Odds: Boston -180/8
Its been 14 years since we’ve seen the best rivalry in Baseball playout in October, so this year’s edition of the New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox should be special, as Game 1 of the ALDS is set for Friday night at Fenway Park. New York won 100 games during the regular season, but needed to beat the Oakland A’s on Wednesday in the wild card game just to get a date with Boston, who won a franchise-record 108 games. The Red Sox had an easy time of it this season, running away with the AL East while leading all of MLB in runs scored (876) and batting average (.268) behind MVP candidates Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. Boston didn’t end the season with a lot of momentum – 1-3 in their last four – and haven’t played a meaningful game in months, unlike the Yankees, who pounded the A’s 7-2 on Wednesday. New York set a major league record for home runs during the regular season (267) and added two more Wednesday including a first inning blast from the now-healthy Aaron Judge. Boston separated themselves from the Yankees with a four-game sweep in early August, but Judge was on the disabled list at the time. The Red Sox took the season series 10-9, but that is a little misleading as there were multiple blowouts by both teams along the way. Two lefties will take the mound for Game 1 as the oft-injured Chris Sale goes up against New York’s J.A. Happ. The Red Sox will start LHP David Price in Game 2 and RHP Rick Porcello in Game 3, while the Yankees counter with RHP Masahiro Tanaka in Game 2 and have yet to announce a Game 3 starter.
Pitchers: Yankees – J.A. Happ (17-6, 3.65 ERA) | Red Sox – Chris Sale (12-4, 2.11)
Some Yankee fans were not impressed with the trade deadline acquisition of Happ, but boy has he turned those fans around. Happ went 7-0 with a 2.69 ERA in 11 starts after being acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays including a 1.86 ERA in five September outings. He was particularly good against Boston, going 1-1 with a 1.99 ERA in four starts against them this season but was not as effective at Fenway Park. Happ allowed nine runs – four earned – and nine hits over 9.2 total innings. He last pitched in the postseason with the Blue Jays in 2016 and is 1-1 with a 3.72 ERA in 10 career playoff games – three starts.
It will be interesting to see how far Sale can pitch in Game 1 as he’s spent the last month trying to build up his pitch count and strengthen his shoulder after two trips to the disabled list. He struggled bad in his last two outings, allowing a total of five runs and nine hits across eight innings. He didn’t make his postseason debut until 2017 and struggled in two appearances – one start – against Houston in the ALDS, going 0-2 while surrendering nine runs and 13 hits – four homers – over 9.2 total innings. Sale had little trouble against the Yankees in 2018 and struck out 19 while yielding one run in 13 innings over two starts.
I’m giving the advantage to the Yankees in this Game 1 for the fact that Boston hasn’t played a meaningful game in months, and I don’t trust Sale at all right now. New York carries a lot of momentum into this contest and that will help them win Game 1.
Pick: Yankees +164
BETTING TRENDS:
- Yankees are 7-0 in their last 7 games following an off day.
- Yankees are 7-0 in their last 7 Friday games.
- Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
- Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Yankees are 40-13 in their last 53 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 17-6 in their last 23 vs. American League East.
- Yankees are 11-4 in their last 15 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Yankees are 5-2 in their last 7 road games.
- Yankees are 5-2 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Yankees are 5-2 in their last 7 games on grass.
- Yankees are 5-2 in their last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 36-16 in their last 52 during game 1 of a series.
- Yankees are 31-15 in their last 46 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Yankees are 43-21 in their last 64 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Yankees are 8-19 in their last 27 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Yankees are 3-10 in their last 13 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Yankees are 0-4 in their last 4 playoff road games.
- Yankees are 4-0 in Happ’s last 4 road starts.
- Yankees are 4-0 in Happ’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Yankees are 6-0 in Happ’s last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 4-0 in Happ’s last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 5-1 in Happ’s last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Yankees are 5-1 in Happ’s last 6 starts vs. American League East.
- Yankees are 9-2 in Happ’s last 11 starts.
- Yankees are 9-2 in Happ’s last 11 starts on grass.
- Red Sox are 10-2 in their last 12 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Red Sox are 44-17 in their last 61 home games.
- Red Sox are 20-8 in their last 28 during game 1 of a series.
- Red Sox are 42-17 in their last 59 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 36-15 in their last 51 games following a win.
- Red Sox are 55-23 in their last 78 games on grass.
- Red Sox are 37-16 in their last 53 vs. American League East.
- Red Sox are 44-19 in their last 63 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 40-18 in their last 58 games following an off day.
- Red Sox are 11-5 in their last 16 Divisional Playoff home games.
- Red Sox are 15-7 in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Red Sox are 57-27 in their last 84 overall.
- Red Sox are 1-5 in their last 6 Friday games.
- Red Sox are 1-6 in their last 7 playoff games.
- Red Sox are 1-6 in their last 7 Divisional Playoff games.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in Sale’s last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Sale’s last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in Sale’s last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 10-1 in Sale’s last 11 starts on grass.
- Red Sox are 5-1 in Sale’s last 6 starts vs. American League East.
- Red Sox are 5-1 in Sale’s last 6 home starts.
- Red Sox are 5-1 in Sale’s last 6 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 25-10 in Sale’s last 35 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 37-18 in Sale’s last 55 starts.
- Over is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 road games.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 on grass.
- Over is 8-0 in Yankees last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 7-0 in Yankees last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 7-0 in Yankees last 7 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 vs. American League East.
- Over is 10-1 in Yankees last 11 games following a win.
- Over is 7-1 in Yankees last 8 Friday games.
- Under is 6-2-1 in Yankees last 9 Divisional Playoff games.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Yankees last 5 playoff road games.
- Over is 5-2 in Yankees last 7 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 7-3 in Yankees last 10 games following an off day.
- Over is 13-6-2 in Yankees last 21 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 4-1 in Happ’s last 5 starts vs. American League East.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Happ’s last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 6-2 in Happ’s last 8 starts on grass.
- Over is 6-2 in Happ’s last 8 starts overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 games following a win.
- Over is 5-0-2 in Red Sox last 7 home games.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Red Sox last 6 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Red Sox last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 7-0-1 in Red Sox last 8 vs. American League East.
- Over is 9-1-1 in Red Sox last 11 on grass.
- Over is 9-1-1 in Red Sox last 11 overall.
- Over is 8-1-2 in Red Sox last 11 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Red Sox last 7 games following an off day.
- Over is 12-3-2 in Red Sox last 17 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 6-2 in Red Sox last 8 Friday games.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Red Sox last 5 playoff home games.
- Under is 14-5-2 in Red Sox last 21 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 10-4-1 in Red Sox last 15 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 27-11-2 in Red Sox last 40 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Sale’s last 4 starts on grass.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Sale’s last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Sale’s last 4 starts overall.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Sale’s last 4 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 8-2 in Sale’s last 10 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 8-2 in Sale’s last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1-2 in Sale’s last 7 home starts.
- Over is 8-2-1 in Sale’s last 11 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 6-2-1 in Sale’s last 9 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 7-3 in Sale’s last 10 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 7-3 in Sale’s last 10 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Boston.
- Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
- Yankees are 2-6 in the last 8 meetings in Boston.
