NY Yankees (66-38) at Boston (59-47)
When: Sunday, July 28th, 2019
Where: Fenway Park,
Boston, MA
Time: 7:05 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Boston -155/10.5
If the New York Yankees front office didn’t think they needed pitching to make a serious run at the World Series, they surely do now – specifically starting pitching. This has been a week of horrors for the staff with the starters recording a 17.86 ERA in the last six games after another shellacking on Saturday at the hands of the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. New York is on a seven-game streak in which their starting pitcher failed to make it past 4.1 innings after yesterday’s 9-5 defeat and will send out Domingo German to try and avoid a three-game weekend sweep. Here are some more alarming numbers since the All-Star Break for the New York starting staff:
ERA: 7.96
Opp Slug %: .647
Opp OPS: 1.010
All of those numbers rank dead last in the majors including 26 home runs allowed and a MLB record 73 runs allowed in their last seven games. While the Yankees are scuffling, the Red Sox are gaining some confidence by scoring 38 runs in the first three games of the series to move into a tie with Oakland for the second AL Wild Card spot. J.D. Martinez smashed his second homer in as many days and extended his hitting streak to six games, while Rafael Devers collected three hits to extend his streak to eight games. Boston has scored at least eight runs for a record sixth straight game in the season series after losing the first four and scoring just seven runs total.
Pitchers: Yankees – Domingo German (12-2, 4.03 ERA) | Red Sox – Chris Sale (5-9, 4.00)
German has been New York’s best starter this season but he even got rocked earlier this week but came away with a no-decision in that wild 14-12 win over Minnesota on Tuesday. German lasted just 3.2 innings and allowed eight runs on nine hits (three homers). He won his previous three starts by allowing a total of three runs while pitching six innings in each contest. German allowed three runs and six hits in 3.2 innings against Boston on June 1st but received a no-decision.
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Chris Sale is getting on a bit of a roll with back-to-back impressive outings over Tampa Bay and Toronto, striking out 22 over 12 innings and allowing just two runs to the Rays last time out. That broke a streak of surrendering four or five runs in four consecutive starts with the Red Sox losing three of those. Sale has lost both starts against New York this season, allowing eight runs in 11 innings, but does have 16 strikeouts.
The Red Sox probably win this game, but I’m not about to lay -180 against the Yankees in any situation. Instead, I’ll take the over. We’ve already talked about how bad New York’s pitching has been and the Red Sox have been a scoring machine against them for six straight meetings. Sale has been better lately, but wasn’t very good in two starts earlier this year against the Yankees.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free MLB Picks page for Sunday. He is 98-69 +1793 units on the season after an 12-8 run!
Pick: OVER 10 +105
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BETTING TRENDS:
Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Yankees are 67-27 in their last 94 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Yankees are 67-28 in their last 95 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Yankees are 28-12 in their last 40 vs. a team with a winning record.
Yankees are 53-23 in their last 76 games on grass.
Yankees are 52-23 in their last 75 vs. American League East.
Yankees are 36-16 in their last 52 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Yankees are 80-37 in their last 117 games following a loss.
Yankees are 58-28 in their last 86 overall.
Yankees are 35-17 in their last 52 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Yankees are 2-6 in their last 8 road games.
Yankees are 2-6 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Yankees are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Yankees are 6-0 in German’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Yankees are 10-1 in German’s last 11 starts vs. American League East.
Yankees are 7-1 in German’s last 8 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Yankees are 5-1 in German’s last 6 starts with 4 days of rest.
Yankees are 5-1 in German’s last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Yankees are 8-2 in German’s last 10 road starts.
Yankees are 4-1 in German’s last 5 Sunday starts.
Yankees are 7-2 in German’s last 9 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Yankees are 17-5 in German’s last 22 starts on grass.
Yankees are 19-7 in German’s last 26 starts.
Yankees are 8-3 in German’s last 11 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 home games.
Red Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. American League East.
Red Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 games on grass.
Red Sox are 17-5 in their last 22 during game 4 of a series.
Red Sox are 72-35 in their last 107 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 Sunday games.
Red Sox are 5-1 in Sale’s last 6 Sunday starts.
Red Sox are 4-1 in Sale’s last 5 starts vs. American League East.
Red Sox are 13-4 in Sale’s last 17 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Red Sox are 7-3 in Sale’s last 10 starts with 4 days of rest.
Red Sox are 3-7 in Sale’s last 10 home starts.
Red Sox are 1-4 in Sale’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 8-0 in Yankees last 8 overall.
Over is 8-0 in Yankees last 8 on grass.
Over is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 games following a loss.
Over is 25-5-1 in Yankees last 31 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 9-2 in Yankees last 11 Sunday games.
Over is 42-13-2 in Yankees last 57 road games.
Over is 15-5-1 in Yankees last 21 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 23-8-1 in Yankees last 32 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 8-3 in Yankees last 11 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Over is 24-9-1 in Yankees last 34 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 3-0-1 in German’s last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-1 in German’s last 6 starts on grass.
Under is 5-1 in German’s last 6 starts overall.
Over is 4-1-1 in German’s last 6 starts with 4 days of rest.
Over is 8-2-1 in German’s last 11 road starts.
Under is 4-1-1 in German’s last 6 starts vs. American League East.
Under is 3-1-1 in German’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 8-3 in German’s last 11 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in German’s last 7 Sunday starts.
Over is 5-2 in German’s last 7 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 5-1 in Red Sox last 6 overall.
Over is 5-1 in Red Sox last 6 on grass.
Over is 5-1 in Red Sox last 6 vs. American League East.
Over is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Over is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 7-2 in Red Sox last 9 home games.
Over is 12-4 in Red Sox last 16 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 11-5 in Red Sox last 16 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 3-0-1 in Sale’s last 4 Sunday starts.
Under is 8-0 in Sale’s last 8 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 9-2-1 in Sale’s last 12 starts with 4 days of rest.
Under is 4-1 in Sale’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 3-1-1 in Sale’s last 5 starts on grass.
Under is 6-2 in Sale’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 6-2-1 in Sale’s last 9 starts vs. American League East.
Over is 10-4-2 in Sale’s last 16 home starts.
Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.
Over is 12-3-2 in the last 17 meetings in Boston.
