NY Yankees (3-2) at Houston (2-3)
When: Friday, October 20th 2017
Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
Time: 8:08 ET | TV: FOX Sports 1
Opening Odds: Houston -125/7.5
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The Houston Astros left Minute Maid Park last Saturday feeling pretty good with a 2-0 series lead, but return home now trailing their best-of-seven American League Championship Series to the New York Yankees, three games to two. The Astros will try to stay alive one more day and force a decisive Game 7 when they host New York in Game 6 on Friday. Houston won the first two games at home but have totaled only nine runs in the series after leading the majors in scoring with 896 runs during the regular season. Houston really needs a boost from the top of their order in George Springer (2-for-18 in the series) and Josh Reddick (0-for-17). The Yankees finally found their offense at home while winning all three games, and are starting to get production from Aaron Judge (4-for-9, two homers, six RBIs in the last three games) and Gary Sanchez, who drove in five runs in the last two contests. New York has scored 13 of their 21 runs with two outs, showing the league their young lineup can hit in the clutch. Houston has not been clutch, going 4-for-27 with runners in scoring position in the series. Yankees DH Chase Headley went 5-for-8 in the last three games after going 0-for-15 in his first six postseason contests.
Pitchers: Yankees – Luis Severino (1-0, 5.56 ERA) | Astros – Justin Verlander (3-0, 2.04)
Severino exited Game 2 early after struggling and getting hit on the wrist by a line drive in the fourth inning. He was checked out by doctors and quickly cleared. Severino allowed a solo home run to Carlos Correa in that outing and was strong in his lone AL Division Series appearance, surrendering three runs and four hits in seven innings against Cleveland.
Verlander was fantastic in that Game 2 against Severino, tossing a complete game while throwing 124 pitches. Verlander allowed just one run and five hits while striking out 13 and walking one to earn his third win in as many 2017 postseason appearances. The former AL MVP is 8-0 with a 1.39 ERA in eight appearances since arriving in a trade from the Detroit Tigers on August 31st.
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Usually I would go against a pitcher who threw 120+ pitches the start before, but Verlander is not your average pitcher. He’s been outstanding in an Astros uniform and the Yankees struggle on offense away from the Bronx. I’m going to take Houston in this one as they force a Game 7.
Pick: Astros -135
BETTING TRENDS:
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 games following a win.
- Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 6-2 in their last 8 overall.
- Yankees are 6-2 in their last 8 playoff games.
- Yankees are 12-4 in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Yankees are 21-7 in their last 28 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Yankees are 22-8 in their last 30 games on grass.
- Yankees are 5-2 in their last 7 vs. American League West.
- Yankees are 11-5 in their last 16 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Yankees are 11-5 in their last 16 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Yankees are 4-10 in their last 14 League Championship games.
- Yankees are 2-7 in their last 9 Friday games.
- Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Yankees are 1-5 in their last 6 road games.
- Yankees are 1-7 in their last 8 playoff road games.
- Yankees are 0-6 in their last 6 League Championship road games.
- Yankees are 7-0 in Severino’s last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 5-0 in Severino’s last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 7-1 in Severino’s last 8 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Yankees are 6-1 in Severino’s last 7 road starts.
- Yankees are 6-1 in Severino’s last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Yankees are 5-1 in Severino’s last 6 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Yankees are 15-3 in Severino’s last 18 starts.
- Yankees are 13-3 in Severino’s last 16 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Yankees are 16-5 in Severino’s last 21 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Yankees are 6-2 in Severino’s last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Yankees are 20-7 in Severino’s last 27 starts on grass.
- Yankees are 3-7 in Severino’s last 10 starts vs. American League West.
- Yankees are 1-7 in Severino’s last 8 Friday starts.
- Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Astros are 4-0 in their last 4 playoff home games.
- Astros are 7-1 in their last 8 League Championship home games.
- Astros are 13-3 in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Astros are 8-2 in their last 10 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Astros are 21-6 in their last 27 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Astros are 6-2 in their last 8 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Astros are 19-7 in their last 26 overall.
- Astros are 19-7 in their last 26 games on grass.
- Astros are 19-7 in their last 26 Friday games.
- Astros are 20-8 in their last 28 home games.
- Astros are 44-20 in their last 64 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Astros are 13-6 in their last 19 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Astros are 42-20 in their last 62 games following a loss.
- Astros are 83-40 in their last 123 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Astros are 6-0 in Verlander’s last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Astros are 4-0 in Verlander’s last 4 home starts.
- Astros are 7-0 in Verlander’s last 7 starts.
- Astros are 7-0 in Verlander’s last 7 starts on grass.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Yankees last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Yankees last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Yankees last 6 League Championship road games.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Yankees last 5 games following an off day.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Yankees last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Yankees last 5 road games.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Yankees last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Yankees last 5 playoff road games.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Yankees last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 5-2-1 in Yankees last 8 games following a win.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Severino’s last 6 Friday starts.
- Over is 13-3 in Severino’s last 16 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 8-2 in Severino’s last 10 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 12-3 in Severino’s last 15 starts overall.
- Over is 8-2 in Severino’s last 10 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 7-2 in Severino’s last 9 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 7-2 in Severino’s last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 6-2 in Severino’s last 8 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 20-8 in Severino’s last 28 starts on grass.
- Under is 5-2 in Severino’s last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 8-0 in Astros last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 5-1 in Astros last 6 League Championship home games.
- Under is 4-1 in Astros last 5 Friday games.
- Under is 4-1 in Astros last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 6-2 in Astros last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 12-4 in Astros last 16 games following an off day.
- Under is 15-5-1 in Astros last 21 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 6-2 in Astros last 8 games following a loss.
- Under is 18-6-2 in Astros last 26 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2 in Astros last 8 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 8-3 in Astros last 11 home games.
- Under is 10-4 in Astros last 14 League Championship games.
- Over is 34-16-1 in Astros last 51 vs. American League East.
- Under is 5-2 in Verlander’s last 7 starts on grass.
- Under is 5-2 in Verlander’s last 7 starts overall.
- Under is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings in Houston.
- Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
- Yankees are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings in Houston.
