NY Yankees (0-0) at Houston (0-0)
When: Saturday, October 12th 2019
Where: Minute Maid Park,
Houston, Texas
Time: 8:08 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: Houston -160/8.5
This is the series everyone has been waiting for since pitchers and catchers took to the field back in February, and it’s setting up to be a classic. The American League Championship Series begins Saturday night when the New York Yankees visit the Houston Astros for Game 1, as Masahiro Tanaka opposes Zack Greinke. The Yankees have no trouble at all in sweeping the 101-win Minnesota Twins, outscoring them 23-7 in three games, but the Astros were taken to the limit by Tampa Bay. Houston won the first two games at home, but were handled in the games in St. Petersburg, before rolling to an easy win in the clinching Game 5 behind Gerrit Cole. The Astros are seeking their second World Series title in three years after they defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2017. Houston had to get by the Yankees in the ALCS that season and the clubs went toe-to-toe for seven games with the home team winning each contest. The Yankees, who are beginning their MLB-record 17th ALCS, totaled only three runs in the four games in Houston in the 2017 ALCS. New York will go with James Paxton in Game 2 on Sunday and Luis Severino in Game 3, while Houston counters with Justin Verlander and Cole in the next two games.
Pitchers: Yankees – Masahiro Tanaka (1-0, 1.80 ERA) | Astros – Zack Greinke (0-1, 14.73)
Tanaka is definitely the right guy for Game 1 of a big series, as the Japanese native is making a name for himself in these type of situations. He was effective in two outings against the Astros in the 2017 ALCS, limiting them to two runs total over 13 innings with 13 strikeouts and is coming off a gem against the heavy-hitting Twins in the ALDS. Tanaka allowed one run over five innings with seven Ks in the 8-2 win last Saturday. He is 4-2 with a 1.54 ERA in six career starts in the playoffs.
Greinke hasn’t had the postseason success like Tanaka, and is coming off a poor outing Monday at Tampa Bay in which he allowed six runs and five hits – three homers – in just 3.2 innings. In 12 career postseason starts, Greinke has a 4.58 ERA and his lifetime marks against the Yankees aren’t terrific. His 5.05 career ERA against the Yankees is the highest against any team he has faced at least 10 times.
This should be one terrific series and if the Yankees want to win, they’ll have to take advantage of pitching matchups like this. Greinke is getting way too much credit as a -155 favorite considering his postseason numbers and overall marks against New York. Tanaka is not afraid of these situations. I’m taking the Yankees in this one.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free MLB Picks page for Saturday. He finished 135-95 +2686 units in the regular season!
Pick: Yankees +145
BETTING TRENDS:
Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 games following an off day.
Yankees are 31-10 in their last 41 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Yankees are 60-24 in their last 84 games on grass.
Yankees are 41-17 in their last 58 Saturday games.
Yankees are 83-38 in their last 121 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Yankees are 43-20 in their last 63 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Yankees are 19-9 in their last 28 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Yankees are 45-22 in their last 67 vs. a team with a winning record.
Yankees are 65-32 in their last 97 overall.
Yankees are 2-5 in their last 7 road games.
Yankees are 4-12 in their last 16 League Championship games.
Yankees are 2-6 in their last 8 during game 6 of a series.
Yankees are 3-10 in their last 13 playoff road games.
Yankees are 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Yankees are 2-12 in their last 14 League Championship road games.
Yankees are 4-0 in Tanaka’s last 4 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Yankees are 10-1 in Tanaka’s last 11 Saturday starts.
Yankees are 13-2 in Tanaka’s last 15 starts with 6 days of rest.
Yankees are 13-3 in Tanaka’s last 16 starts on grass.
Yankees are 15-4 in Tanaka’s last 19 starts.
Yankees are 7-2 in Tanaka’s last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Yankees are 10-3 in Tanaka’s last 13 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Yankees are 24-8 in Tanaka’s last 32 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Yankees are 37-14 in Tanaka’s last 51 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Astros are 7-0 in their last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Astros are 40-12 in their last 52 home games.
Astros are 42-13 in their last 55 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Astros are 49-17 in their last 66 games on grass.
Astros are 53-19 in their last 72 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Astros are 38-14 in their last 52 games following a win.
Astros are 38-14 in their last 52 games following an off day.
Astros are 38-14 in their last 52 Saturday games.
Astros are 21-8 in their last 29 playoff home games.
Astros are 13-5 in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Astros are 51-20 in their last 71 overall.
Astros are 9-4 in their last 13 League Championship home games.
Astros are 35-16 in their last 51 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Astros are 13-6 in their last 19 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Astros are 35-17 in their last 52 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Astros are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Astros are 0-4 in their last 4 League Championship games.
Astros are 4-0 in Greinke’s last 4 starts on grass.
Astros are 4-1 in Greinke’s last 5 home starts.
Astros are 4-1 in Greinke’s last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Astros are 4-1 in Greinke’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
Astros are 4-1 in Greinke’s last 5 starts.
Under is 4-1-1 in Yankees last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 4-1-1 in Yankees last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 11-3 in Yankees last 14 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 6-2 in Yankees last 8 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 18-7-1 in Yankees last 26 games following an off day.
Under is 5-2-1 in Yankees last 8 League Championship road games.
Over is 5-2 in Yankees last 7 on grass.
Under is 5-2-1 in Yankees last 8 playoff road games.
Under is 12-5-1 in Yankees last 18 vs. American League West.
Over is 4-0 in Tanaka’s last 4 Saturday starts.
Over is 4-0 in Tanaka’s last 4 starts overall.
Over is 5-1 in Tanaka’s last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-1 in Tanaka’s last 5 starts with 6 days of rest.
Over is 4-1-1 in Tanaka’s last 6 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Tanaka’s last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 6-2 in Tanaka’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 8-3 in Tanaka’s last 11 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 13-3-2 in Astros last 18 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 4-1 in Astros last 5 games following a win.
Over is 4-1-1 in Astros last 6 home games.
Over is 4-1 in Astros last 5 League Championship games.
Over is 4-1 in Astros last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 4-1 in Astros last 5 during game 6 of a series.
Over is 3-1-1 in Astros last 5 games following an off day.
Over is 3-1-1 in Astros last 5 on grass.
Under is 3-1-1 in Astros last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 19-7-2 in Astros last 28 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 8-3-2 in Astros last 13 vs. American League East.
Over is 12-5-1 in Astros last 18 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 7-3-1 in Astros last 11 playoff games.
Under is 5-0 in Greinke’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
Over is 4-1 in Greinkes last 5 home starts.
Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
Yankees are 3-10 in the last 13 meetings in Houston.
